Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
Originally Posted by petegz28:
World wide the % of critical cases is still at 4%. 96% are mild. That's an important stat to be mindful of.
You should probably factor in deaths into the serious/critical number and average against the whole number. The problem is it is likely even less because of all the cases that aren’t being counted to begin with.
Even with the more strict formula above, I’d be surprised if the serious/critical cases were more than 2% but that’s just a guess. [Reply]
Originally Posted by HayWire:
Shit. My wife came home tonight and the lady she works directly with tested positive today. The lady that tested positive is the boss and chose not to go home until the positive test. Bitch
My daughter's boss lived in New Rochelle, on the same block as patient zero. She kept her employees working in the office for several days after she was working from home in the containment zone. I'm not sure she had the juice to give permission to work from home, but it was crazy to keep people moving around on the subway when there's no reason they can't work from home.
My daughter ended up with several days of a low grade fever and a cough, but it never got severe and she never got tested. [Reply]
Originally Posted by RINGLEADER:
You should probably factor in deaths into the serious/critical number and average against the whole number. The problem is it is likely even less because of all the cases that aren’t being counted to begin with.
Even with the more strict formula above, I’d be surprised if the serious/critical cases were more than 2% but that’s just a guess.
I agree. In fact I contend that if you did as we do with the flu and estimate cases that are never actually tested, our death rate is much, much less than what it is now. Maybe that is what you are saying.
And before everyone gets their panties wadded I am not calling this the flu. [Reply]
Originally Posted by BigRedChief:
Dr. Fauci on when to end social distancing, “the virus makes the timeline”
While I understand what he is saying I disagree to an extent. The virus is never going away. Our ability to treat and minimize the impact of the virus is what makes the timeline. [Reply]
Originally Posted by petegz28:
I am starting to question the reliability of the testing numbers anyway. First we were told you were only being tested if you had symptoms. Now some are saying they aren't even testing you and just assuming you have it.
Then we have people that have it and either don't show symptoms or are mild and don't go ever get tested.
Not sure how you don't get this.
At first, without a lot of cases, we had test kits to test people with symptoms.
Now, with more cases each day, we don't have the ability to test everyone with symptoms because we don't have enough tests.
There are a LOT of people who will get or who have had it that simply won't get tested. We don't have that many tests to go around. [Reply]
Originally Posted by PAChiefsGuy:
You continue to downplay this virus. Unbelievable. You don't get it and apparently you never will.
Once again you just have to play this straw man bullshit. I did not downplay it. I am sorry to inform you however that people die from other things than this in the same or higher numbers every day. That is just the fact. To point that out is not down playing anything.
You don't get it. Now I am going to kindly ask you to either stop being confrontational every time you want to address my posts or to ignore me. But your constant bullshit of either making an assumption or otherwise putting words in my mouth and then opining on it is fucking old. [Reply]
Originally Posted by petegz28:
No but this is starting to become like politics, you can find a study or a test or a doctor to fit whatever narrative you want.
Case in point, we have a doctor that says he cured 350 people with HCQ and now we have 2 governors who have banned its use for whatever reasons they have.
It’s basically using a different epidemiological model. They think maybe half of England has already been exposed and there is just a bunch of mild and asymptomatic cases
There seems to be some things showing now that it may be true [Reply]
