Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
Originally Posted by tk13:
I keep telling you but you don't listen. It's pretty clear at this point you don't want to. Some of you guys are just being stubborn for the fun of it.
Even if you take a conservative estimate based on the fact we don't know all the cases... the hospitalization and mortality rates are miles higher with this than 2009.
Not necessarily. Marcellus has some kind of reading/learning/comprehension issue. [Reply]
Originally Posted by wazu:
For the majority of the "working age and younger" crowd this virus poses very little risk. And it's now sounding like an effective treatment may have been found which plunges the risk even lower. If that is the case, then we need to get people back to work and fast.
They are also going to be the ones who spread it everywhere. They are still contagious. If you do that you basically have to give an edict that that group can't come into contact with anyone over 60. How's that going to work? [Reply]
Originally Posted by tk13:
I keep telling you but you don't listen. It's pretty clear at this point you don't want to. Some of you guys are just being stubborn for the fun of it.
Even if you take a conservative estimate based on the fact we don't know all the cases... the hospitalization and mortality rates are miles higher with this than 2009.
Look man, Ive pointed out correctly and repeatedly that thought process is flawed.
If we have so many cases we dont know about, some studies have said 6 out of 7 cases are unknown, then its not nearly as deadly as you think it is.
By a little over 100 days in (end of July 2009) H1N1 there were 2MM cases in the US alone. 2 million. (1MM on June 26th)
I put up number showing if the death toll doubled every 4 days we would be at 15% of H1N1 deaths in 2 weeks. This would be 15% of the deaths over 25% of the timeline. 3 months vs 12 months.
I repeat 15% of the deaths in 25% of the same timeline. 3 months vs 12 months.
If you want to argue they are similar, hell if you want to argue Covan has the potential to be a little worse go for it.
To say its apples and oranges is an outright falsehood driven by hysteria.
Also 87% of H1N1 deaths were children and working age adults. That seems like a BIGGER issue. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Marcellus:
Look man, Ive pointed out correctly and repeatedly that thought process is flawed.
If we have so many cases we dont know about, some studies have said 6 out of 7 cases are unknown, then its not nearly as deadly as you think it is.
By a little over 100 days in (end of July 2009) H1N1 there were 2MM cases in the US alone. 2 million.
I put up number showing if the death toll doubled every 4 days we would be at 15% of H1N1 deaths in 2 weeks. This would be 15% of the deaths over 25% of the timeline. 3 months vs 12 months.
I repeat 15% of the deaths in 25% of the same timeline. 3 months vs 12 months.
If you want to argue they are similar, hell if you want to argue Covanhas the potential to be a little worse go for it.
To say its apples and oranges is an outright falsehood driven my hysteria.
I am not hysterical. I said four weeks ago no one should panic. They still shouldn't panic. But it's pretty clear at this point there's plenty of evidence this thing can spread pretty easily and it is more likely to put you in the hospital and kill you than those other diseases. What's the benefit of saying it isn't? I don't get the endgame.
The death rate for H1N1 was 0.02%. You think this virus currently is killing people at that rate? Is that what you really think?
If literally every single person in the world who has it right now survived, the death rate would still be twice of H1N1.
And that doesn't even get into the hospitalization part of it. Why are hospitals in all these different countries getting overrun? Why is that happening if this isn't causing people to go to the hospital? [Reply]
Originally Posted by Pablo:
Gonna take a Draculean effort to pull the economy outta this tailspin. I suggest we all take up karate lessons to support local biz.
we will all need to be trained in martial arts when the chinese invade
especially after the government collects our guns [Reply]
Originally Posted by tk13:
I am not hysterical. I said four weeks ago no one should panic. They still shouldn't panic. But it's pretty clear at this point there's plenty of evidence this thing can spread pretty easily and it is more likely to put you in the hospital and kill you than those other diseases. What's the benefit of saying it isn't? I don't get the endgame.
The death rate for H1N1 was 0.02%. You think this virus currently is killing people at that rate? Is that what you really think?
If literally every single person in the world who has it right now survived, the death rate would still be twice of H1N1.
And that doesn't even get into the hospitalization part of it. Why are hospitals in all these different countries getting overrun? Why is that happening if this isn't causing people to go to the hospital?
The bolded part is the end number after 2 years, after a vaccine, think about that, it didn't start like that. It was 4x more lethal then regular influenza the first year, does this sound familar? [Reply]
Originally Posted by Marcellus:
The bolded part is the end number after 2 years, after a vaccine, think about that, it didn't start like that. It was 4x more lethal then regular influenza the first year, does this sound familar?
Yes exactly, and right now this appears to be somewhere between 25 and 50 times more lethal the flu. That's a large number. [Reply]
Originally Posted by tk13:
Yes exactly, and right now this appears to be somewhere between 25 and 50 times more lethal the flu. That's a large number.
Thats wrong because you are well aware many people have no symptoms.
From earlier in this thread regarding H1N1 the first year. Which sounds worse again? 2MM cases in 106 days?
Originally Posted by :
Eighty-seven percent of deaths occurred in those under 65 years of age with children and working adults having risks of hospitalization and death 4 to 7 times and 8 to 12 times greater, respectively, than estimates of impact due to seasonal influenza covering the years 1976-2001.
Joplin's Muni golf course is operating credit only, no clubhouse access, put styrafoam pool noodles to avoid touching the flag stick and they're sanitizing carts after every suse. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Marcellus:
The bolded part is the end number after 2 years, after a vaccine, think about that, it didn't start like that. It was 4x more lethal then regular influenza the first year, does this sound familar?
Everyone in Marcellus’s family is immune to the Coronavirus.
