Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
Originally Posted by suzzer99:
We need to get up to like 60% though and we're not close to that yet.
I've been trying to find a model that shows what the curve looks like if say we go through this again in the fall but 10% or 20% have herd immunity. Maybe it's flatter. But I haven't found anything yet.
We should all have masks and be better at social distancing by then at least.
For sure
But until you start doing serological tests you aren’t gonna know who’s had it and recovered, who got it, was asymptomatic and is now immune etc
If there’s a 30% asymptomatic rate and 80 percent of cases are mild, well that’s quite a few people [Reply]
Originally Posted by O.city:
In terms of IfR or death rate
The problem is it’s hitting us all at once vs an entire flu season
Essentially like taking flu season and compressing it into a month
Again this is just my interpretation on reading studies and such
CFR for COVID-19 was estimated to be 3.4% when the stuff hit the fan. I imagine that it'll end up being around 1 to 1.5 once it ends. That's nothing like seasonal flu CFR. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Donger:
CFR for COVID-19 was estimated to be 3.4% when the stuff hit the fan. I imagine that it'll end up being around 1 to 1.5 once it ends. That's nothing like seasonal flu CFR.
CFR is different than IFR
There’s a lot of stuff coming out now that the CFR May be in the 5 range which is crazy [Reply]
Originally Posted by KC Dan:
Damn! And, I thought of coming to visit you....harsh, man, harsh...
actually, not thinking of because I know what you mean. The northern part of our state is 100% dysfunctional idiots and the southern part is far to close to whach job Portland...
Heh, you still can dude. At that time, we didn't have any cases in MT and
all these slap dicks starting showing up. To say the least, people were not all that excited about it. [Reply]
Originally Posted by BleedingRed:
What? I'll post it again if you want because there is nothing political about the president and his team talking about what other countries are doing
Roman said 3M has ramped up production of N95 respirators and doubled its global output to nearly 100 million per month.
"In the United States we are producing 35 million respirators per month. Of these, more than 90% are now designated for healthcare workers, with the remaining deployed to other industries also critical in this pandemic, including energy, food and pharmaceutical companies," Roman said in a Linkedin post on Sunday.
He said more than 500,000 respirators are being sent this week to some of the more critically impacted areas, such as New York and Seattle. About half of the total coronavirus cases in the United States are in New York State.
"I want people to know we are doing all we can to meet the demands of this extraordinary time and get supplies from our plants to where they're most needed as quickly as possible," he said. [Reply]
Originally Posted by :
DECATUR — Rumors that Decatur police are looking to pull drivers over to see if they are making non-essential journeys are just that — rumors, according to the city’s police chief.
Stories have circulated of drivers being pulled over and fined for contravening newly-imposed state-wide measures to limit non-essential travel in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak.
“No, absolutely not, we’re not doing that,” said Police Chief Jim Getz. “We’re not doing it and we don’t have time to do that anyway.”
Gov. J.B. Pritzker issued a "stay-at-home" order that is in effect from 5 p.m. Saturday to April 7. The order exempts businesses that are considered essential and still allows residents to go to grocery stores, pharmacies, gas stations and on walks outside, among other destinations.
Getz said his officers are following guidelines laid down by Pritzker’s office and the Illinois State Police. Officers will not be “proactively” stopping drivers at random, he said, but they may question them about the nature of their trip if they’ve been pulled over for something else, like a traffic infraction or if somebody has made a specific complaint about a person’s behavior.
The governor himself was asked about the rules during a press conference Sunday. A reporter told Pritzker that some employers had begun issuing letters for workers to carry with them, explaining that they were out to do essential work. Pritzker said that is not necessary.
"Let me be clear: You do not need to have papers or permission from your employer," Pritzker said. "Nobody is being stopped on the streets unless they are in fact seen to be directly violating the stay-at-home order, in which case a police officer or somebody else maybe just asks you (to) please go home, or are you in fact going to your job or going somewhere that is essential, to encourage people to do the right thing.
"There's no stopping people and asking for papers."
Getz said it's in everybody’s self-interest to follow the new rules and limit the spread of the virus. What will earn you a trip to jail is if the police get wind of an illegal large gathering at your home.
“I saw something on Facebook where, since all the bars and things were closed, people were going to have house parties with 50 or more people,” said Getz.
“Now that defeats the whole purpose of what the governor has put in place and so, if we find out you’re doing that, we’re going to arrest you for reckless conduct and we’re going to haul you to jail.”
