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Nzoner's Game Room>***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***
JakeF 10:28 PM 02-26-2020
A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

[Reply]
RINGLEADER 10:28 PM 03-21-2020
Originally Posted by AustinChief:
That is all I was saying. That is why I put forth a scenario then asked a question. I am not really interested in defending the scenario itself, even though I have just now.

I am interested in the answer IF it played out as I put forth.

I will ask again...

What if the following scenario played out...

On Monday a significant number of doctors nationwide start prescribing HCQ+azithromycin to patients in hospital who have tested positive for Covid-19 (those who are severe/critical).

Our supplies of both hold up (this is actually likely given how readily available both are) The US also ramps up production (and taps into strategic stockpiles and military supplies) to meet any upcoming need.

After 6 days, 80%+ of all treated people are virus free.


At what point would you support lifting all the mandated restrictions and just issuing advisories and continuing Federal support for testing and recovery (both economic and medical)?

If this plays out, I can not see ANY excuse for not lifting restrictions by April 1.
Absent a miracle cure like you laid out we will be on lockdown for several months.
[Reply]
AustinChief 10:29 PM 03-21-2020
Originally Posted by RINGLEADER:
Absent a miracle cure like you laid out we will be on lockdown for several months.
The point is not the "miracle cure". The point is the scenario. What is your answer to the specific scenario laid out?
[Reply]
suzzer99 10:31 PM 03-21-2020
Originally Posted by arrowheadnation:
Like every other plague or outbreak in history, infections and death will not keep growing exponentially. It's impossible. Both will inevitably reach a point where they start to trend down and things return to normal. It is the measures we take to speed up that downturn that will tell how quickly normal returns. It's all explained much more eloquently in the linked article below. This is a good read. No need to read it all. There is a lot you already know, but definitely worth your time...and who doesn't have time to kill right now.

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine...9-1b767def5894
This article has been taken down at least for now. It's under investigation.



Here's a rebuttal of the arguments in the article:

A lot of people are sharing out this piece by @aginnt on #COVID19 that I think is profoundly misguided

It combines a pile of statistics (fine) with a very poor policy argument that I'll rebut here, in a threadhttps://t.co/vfisP3N3ez

— Will Chamberlain (@willchamberlain) March 21, 2020

[Reply]
Fat Elvis 10:34 PM 03-21-2020
Originally Posted by AustinChief:
That is all I was saying. That is why I put forth a scenario then asked a question. I am not really interested in defending the scenario itself, even though I have just now.

I am interested in the answer IF it played out as I put forth.

I will ask again...

What if the following scenario played out...

On Monday a significant number of doctors nationwide start prescribing HCQ+azithromycin to patients in hospital who have tested positive for Covid-19 (those who are severe/critical).

Our supplies of both hold up (this is actually likely given how readily available both are) The US also ramps up production (and taps into strategic stockpiles and military supplies) to meet any upcoming need.

After 6 days, 80%+ of all treated people are virus free.


At what point would you support lifting all the mandated restrictions and just issuing advisories and continuing Federal support for testing and recovery (both economic and medical)?

If this plays out, I can not see ANY excuse for not lifting restrictions by April 1.
The key to the hypothetical is that you've found a cure with virtually unlimited supply.

If that plays out, then sure, lift all restrictions.

That said, you have a better chance of bottling unicorn farts at this point in time.

Even if you decrease the rate of infection by a couple of points (currently at +32% increase today), you're going to have twice as many people in the US infected with the Coronavirus by this time next week than China had throughout their entire outbreak.
[Reply]
Bearcat 10:36 PM 03-21-2020
Originally Posted by 007:
Everyone will just say they are on the way to a grocery store
Not even that...

Originally Posted by :
To engage in outdoor activity, provided the individuals comply with
Social Distancing Requirements as defined in this Section, such as, by
way of example and without limitation, biking, walking, hiking, or
running;
There are a few specifics, like how weddings aren't essential... but, overall it's a mess of generalities and exceptions, yet you could get a fine of $50-500 or 1 day to 6 months in jail. :-)
[Reply]
Fish 10:38 PM 03-21-2020
Originally Posted by AustinChief:
Ok, this is the response I am looking for. This is a game of "what if"... it doesn't really matter if you think the scenario is complete bullshit.
The problem though, is that nobody is going to mass produce this without having any actual proof of what that percentage actually is beyond the current limited results. Or whether there might be some unknown long term issue that results from the untested long term combination of the virus and this application. Certainly not mass produced within weeks without knowing.
[Reply]
BigRedChief 10:43 PM 03-21-2020
First time in history we can save the human race by laying in front of the TV. Let’s not blow this.

/stolen off Instagram
[Reply]
AustinChief 10:44 PM 03-21-2020
For all those talking about our supplies. How many people CURRENTLY in the US are listed as server or critical with Covid-19?

You are telling me we can't treat them all right now with this treatment?

For those who are wondering what the numbers are it is 6 250mg doses of azithromycin and 18 doses of 200mg hydroxychloroquine per patient. (according to the French study)

I'd wager my local Walmart has enough to treat 50 people right now.
[Reply]
RINGLEADER 10:44 PM 03-21-2020
Originally Posted by AustinChief:
The point is not the "miracle cure". The point is the scenario. What is your answer to the specific scenario laid out?
I’m with you that if there is a way to treat this it should be less important to keep everyone at home but the problem is there is no way they’re going to be able to know this works for everyone in that time. The goal is to not over-tax the health care system since that will lead to a lot of deaths. If the scenario you put out leads to a verifiable way to treat enough people to keep people from over-using the available ventilators/etc then the purpose of sheltering becomes moot.

I would just want to make sure that you can know it works in all the situations and with all the different kinds of cases we’ll be facing before we tell everyone it’s okay to start spreading it again.

Also, if they say 2 more weeks would really inoculate us from future problems I think most would be okay with that. A lot of the pressure on the economy is because we don’t know how long this will last/cost so a drug therapy would be immensely helpful on that front.
[Reply]
AustinChief 10:46 PM 03-21-2020
Originally Posted by Fish:
The problem though, is that nobody is going to mass produce this without having any actual proof of what that percentage actually is beyond the current limited results. Or whether there might be some unknown long term issue that results from the untested long term combination of the virus and this application. Certainly not mass produced within weeks without knowing.
You don't need to ramp up azithromycin production by much and hydroxychloroquine production is already being ramped up as we speak.

Right now there is PLENTY in the system that could be used to treat ALL current severe/critical cases in the USA and not even blink. (you may see regional shortages in places like NY but that is a matter of shifting resources, we are talking HOURS not even days)
[Reply]
Discuss Thrower 10:50 PM 03-21-2020
You're wasting keystrokes, bossmang.
[Reply]
007 10:51 PM 03-21-2020
Originally Posted by Bearcat:
Not even that...







There are a few specifics, like how weddings aren't essential... but, overall it's a mess of generalities and exceptions, yet you could get a fine of $50-500 or 1 day to 6 months in jail. :-)
I don't get the stance on funerals either. What are families supposed to do? Put them on ice?
[Reply]
AustinChief 11:04 PM 03-21-2020
Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower:
You're wasting keystrokes, bossmang.
Just to be clear, I am not unrealistic about this being a "miracle cure." I am just gauging the current psychology of people regarding the situation. I am seeing an overwhelming negativity that so far REALITY doesn't seem to warrant. Yes, we may see the situation get far worse but we also may find out that this virus has already spread far and wide in the US and we are near peak spread in places like NY.
[Reply]
Bugeater 11:07 PM 03-21-2020
Originally Posted by 007:
I don't get the stance on funerals either. What are families supposed to do? Put them on ice?
Maybe a webinar type thing? :-)
[Reply]
SupDock 11:08 PM 03-21-2020

Guys. We need to talk about this Hydroxychloroquine + Azithromycin thing. It is out of hand. It all stems from this study that came out today. The study design: Comparative viral eradication on day 6 between HCQ, HCQ + Azithro, and control (not treated) COVID-19 patients. pic.twitter.com/qFZXdTxTwI

— Jason Pogue (@jpogue1) March 20, 2020


So to recap:
1) This study had a lower threshold for "negative" than most and used as less sensitive swab sample
2) There were a decent number (23%) of total HCQ patients who were not eligible for analysis, but at least five could be considered failures.

— Jason Pogue (@jpogue1) March 20, 2020


2a) These failures could lessen the spread between HCQ and control
2b) These failures would impact monotherapy vs combination therapy (unclear how as they are not described)
3) When correcting for burden of disease/viral load, HCQ and HCQ + AZ look extremely similar

— Jason Pogue (@jpogue1) March 20, 2020

[Reply]
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