In case you haven't heard enough of this the last three months, to say nothing of this past weekend, I had a little reminder for you regarding the NFL Draft: Everyone takes the best player available almost all the time, the guy they coveted tends to just fall to them, and you can't truly judge winners and losers of any draft until years after.
That's just how it works. Or so they would have you believe.
The reality is, especially among the better teams in the league, and the dregs of the league (i.e. those without a capable quarterback), there is very much need involved with many of the top picks and calculated trades before and during the draft. And there seemed to be an obvious theme among better AFC teams in how they doubled down on certain areas, and approached this draft. An unspoken arms race of sorts in ongoing, in large part a reaction to how the Kansas City Chiefs season ended last year.
The Chiefs were going to do everything in their power – via trades, free agency and the draft – to reinforce their offensive line like never before. And the rest of the conference, particularly those franchise that might fancy themselves closest to unseating the Chiefs (the Bills, Ravens and Browns, who comprised the final four in the conference in January) are trying to load up to stop them. Not exactly rocket science, I know. But the fact that Baltimore and K.C. completed a major trade involving a Pro Bowl offensive lineman (at a time when they both needed major help there), and then the Bills doubled down on pass rushers with their top two picks, served further notice of how these Super Bowl contenders are trying to maximize their last great chance to harness talent en masse before the 2021 season begins.
If the Ravens can get past the Chiefs, it will require making Patrick Mahomes sweat, and the edge players atop their depth chart prior to the draft (Tyus Bowser, Jaylon Ferguson and Pernell McPhee) have combined for 52 career sacks, with 37 of them coming from McPhee, 32, a rotational player at this point. So it came as absolutely no surprise they took who they deemed to be the best pass rusher possible (Odafe Oweh) with the 31st pick they received as part of the Orlando Brown trade with the Chiefs. They were always going to use at least one of their top two picks on an edge rusher, no matter how the board fell; they don't have the luxury to grab any player at any position with the way that roster is composed after sitting out any big money free agent signings yet again. The inherent bias of position need is baked into the board.
And the Chiefs, despite already signing guard Joe Thuney to a record-setting contract and giving up draft capital for Brown, with just two picks in the first 143 selections, still took an offensive lineman with one of those selections, center Creed Humphrey with the 63rd pick. They are clearly as serious as can be about protecting their franchise QB as he recovers from offseason surgery. Lack of draft picks made no difference, while Baltimore took offensive line with the 94th pick they got from K.C. (need-based to the core), and then traded down from the 136th overall pick from K.C. to eventually take defensive back Shaune Wade (you need all the corners and safeties to try to stop the Chiefs).
All the Bills did meantime, was load up on pass rush, knowing that veterans Jerry Hughes and Mario Addison are only going to bring so much at this stage, and everyone seeing how much Tampa's ability to harass Mahomes with just four rushers impacted the Super Bowl outcome. They grabbed Gregory Rousseau with the penultimate selection of the first round, someone who may be able to get push inside and out, and grabbed Carlos Basham at the end of the second round, a player some evaluators I trust believe will provide first-round value at the next level.
Baltimore preferred Oweh to Rousseau – something to watch over the coming years – and it will be fascinating to see how the picks Baltimore got for Brown progress, and how well Brown performs as a left tackle in a far less run-oriented offense in Kansas City.
As for the Browns, having assembled a potent offense, they attacked improving their defense even after making bolstering the secondary and pass rush a major theme of their free-agent process. Corner Gregory Newsome wasn't that high on some other team's boards I spoke to, but it's a fairly safe pick, while landing Notre Dame linebacker/safety/whatever Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, was seen as a steal among those I talked to. They added speedy receivers on day two and three – Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham aren't going to be there forever – and may have had one of the best drafts overall.
"I didn't want to believe the Browns were for real, but I really like their draft," one top AFC executive told me. "The corner wasn't that high for us, but it's hard to argue with what they've done and the kid from Notre Dame could be a star if you use him the right way. They have really smart people running things there now. They've had an impressive offseason."
I tend to agree. At this stage, with some veteran free agents like Justin Houston, Melvin Ingram and Alejandro Villanueva still out there, I see the Browns and Bills as the best constructed to truly test the Chiefs for AFC supremacy. I love what they have done and how they have gone about going it … But if Brown is as good as I believe he will be, next to Thuney and with Kyle Long at guard, I still don't think it will be enough to knock them off their perch barring major injuries.
The Chiefs have vastly upgraded both the quality and quantity of options along their offensive line, clearly had a limited amount of first-round grades on tackles (as did most of the league as there was no wave on them in the final eight of the opening round, and believed Brown to be far superior to whatever was available to them there. And now they have seven legit options to sort through the three starting linemen to the right of Brown and Thuney, which is bad news for the rest of the AFC.
Disregard any draft grades that rip them for lack of selections. They went all-in to repair their one glaring need, and ownership showed a willingness to dig far deeper in its pockets than many rivals (you know who you are) including almost landing Trent Williams, the highest-paid left tackle in the game. Those draft grades don't include the 24-year old tackle they just landed who has already gone to the Pro Bowl at two different positions already, and if you aren't giving Andy Reid an 'A' for the totality of his offseason transactions, you aren't paying very close attention.
But trust me, the GMs in the AFC are. None of this escapes them. And best of luck keeping chase.
Originally Posted by htismaqe:
The division is about the same as last year.
1. LA needs to demonstrate they can win close games and stay healthy. The same as every year. They're the closest competition to the Chiefs.
2. Denver and LV doubled down on "strengths" instead of actually improving. Denver seems to want to fortify the roster in places where they already have good players while not addressing some glaring holes. The Raiders blew up a strength to try and make it a strength and their obsession with back-end tweeners on defense is a bit mystifying.
Can't really disagree... it's not like Denver was a QB away from making a serious and consistent run at deep playoff appearances. Appears they had a solid draft, which would make for several in a row now and prove to be good for years beyond 2021. They immediately upgraded their RB group as Williams should see quite a bit of action and Gordon is in his last year. They really focused on the secondary in FA and the draft, and with a few guys having 1 year remaining, that was smart to get Surtain and continue building depth.
Offensively, the line has improved considerably since 2019. They are rich at WR and TE, now @ RB too... can Teddy beat out Lock? I don't think that's a big ask quite honestly. Question is, can he be smart in that offense with those players around him and actually put up 24+ points consistently. We.Shall.See
Defensively, lots of talent... and they'll need it with the QB rich schedule they have in 2021.
Denver lost 7 games by 7 or fewer points... Denver only broke 21 points 6 times last year - pathetic. Sutton and Chubb are back, appear to be healthy - that's good.
Lots to prove and the division is far from weak. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Mile High Mania:
Can't really disagree... it's not like Denver was a QB away from making a serious and consistent run at deep playoff appearances. Appears they had a solid draft, which would make for several in a row now and prove to be good for years beyond 2021. They immediately upgraded their RB group as Williams should see quite a bit of action and Gordon is in his last year. They really focused on the secondary in FA and the draft, and with a few guys having 1 year remaining, that was smart to get Surtain and continue building depth.
Offensively, the line has improved considerably since 2019. They are rich at WR and TE, now @ RB too... can Teddy beat out Lock? I don't think that's a big ask quite honestly. Question is, can he be smart in that offense with those players around him and actually put up 24+ points consistently. We.Shall.See
Defensively, lots of talent... and they'll need it with the QB rich schedule they have in 2021.
Denver lost 7 games by 7 or fewer points... Denver only broke 21 points 6 times last year - pathetic. Sutton and Chubb are back, appear to be healthy - that's good.
Lots to prove and the division is far from weak.
To me it seems like Denver identified needs at DB and then went a little more than all-in. I guess will see but right now it seems like they actually went a little overboard. [Reply]
Originally Posted by htismaqe:
To me it seems like Denver identified needs at DB and then went a little more than all-in. I guess will see but right now it seems like they actually went a little overboard.
Like I said, I believe several of them are not in contract past 2021. Nothing wrong with having a deep secondary in today’s NFL and this division. [Reply]
If the Chiefs stay healthy-ish (and really that means they get into the playoffs with healthy Mahomes, Hill, Kelce, and Orlando Brown), I don't think it matters what the other AFC teams did.
Agree that the Browns are the primary threat. The pieces they've added on defense - especially JOK - make them a much better matchup with the Chiefs overall. Their CB room is really talented but DOES feature a bunch of guys with big injury question marks. [Reply]
Originally Posted by htismaqe:
Baker is running an actual pro-style offense with good RB's and good receiving options. Not saying he sucks at all but his situtation is so much better than Buffalo and it's BECAUSE of Josh Allen.
Buffalo's strengths AND weaknesses all revolve around Allen. They play an unconventional offense, it lacks variety and the ability to create balance when opposing defenses get the upper hand. They don't have the ability to keep defenses honest at all. The Browns have a much more varied offense than the Bills do. Sometimes the playoffs evolve into complex chess matches and the Bills just can't do that. Neither can the Ravens for that matter.
They have distinct styles on both offense and defense that for better or worse, can't change.
The Browns are much closer to the Chiefs that they can dictate gameplans but can also respond to changes when the chips are down.
Buffalo's offense is heavily dependent on getting Allen to throw against his pre-snap read. Daboll has an answer ready for everything.
The problem for Buffalo is when the other team starts switching the looks like Spags likes to do. [Reply]
Originally Posted by MahomesMagic:
Buffalo's offense is heavily dependent on getting Allen to throw against his pre-snap read. Daboll has an answer ready for everything.
The problem for Buffalo is when the other team starts switching the looks like Spags likes to do.
I try not to dwell on the intangibles, but I can’t take Josh Allen serious after his AFCCG tantrum.
He looked like shit and pouted about it. Damn near started a brawl too.
Compare that Mahomes’s first AFCCG. One is a leader, the other is a toddler. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Bowser:
Mayfield looked like he had us figured out in the second half of our playoff game with them. If Henne hadn't pulled off that signature scramble of his career and Andy hadn't called that ballsy 4th down pass, I was about to get very worried if we had punted back to them.
He had the ball, down 22-17, with 5 minutes left and all the momentum after Henne’s interception. Chubb rushed for a first down then Cleveland went three downs and punt. Baker has his chance for a GW drive and came up well short
Originally Posted by IowaHawkeyeChief:
We hopefully will mitigate that by having a top 5 offensive line...
They needed to draft those guys because Ed Oliver is going to be a bust and the veterans they paid all that money to are underachieving.
They also spent a 2nd on Epenesa last year and for some weird reason told him to lose all this weight when he is a player that wins with power. [Reply]