Embedding the whole thread since apparently twatter is off limits to non users now.
The spread is roughly designed to be beat by both teams 50:50. So let's assume the home beats the spread 50% of the time and refs do not affect this (the reasonable null hypothesis)
Now, let's have 19 refs officiate 46 games, all of which are the home team covers 50:50...
In 26% of simulations, the second-lowest ref happens to have a home team record ATS of 17-29 or worse. In other words, our reality is entirely consistent with the idea that refs don't impact the home team's result differently.
There is an auto-correlation here. If a team loses ATS, it did worse than expected. There could be a lot of reasons for this, including comitting too many penalties...
Another way of phrasing it: Diving into the data, one could find refs who
- "favor the team from the larger city" - "favor the team further North" - "favor the team with younger players" - "favor the team closer to the city they live in" - "favor [use any 50:50 split you want]"
(There is also the thing that playoff refs are distinct so far. 10 different refs have officiated the 10 playoff games. There are not that many refs left. And when the NFL decided to not give Smith an earlier playoff game, they had no idea the Chiefs would even make it that far)
Originally Posted by DRM08:
Agreed. Brady is uncatchable. The 2 losses to him in the Playoffs hurt. But he’s a very lucky guy. Dee Ford and the Overtime rule that no longer exists, plus the Chiefs OL being wiped out in the 2nd game helped make a difference in these matchups.
No doubt Brady was gifted 4 SBs by Dee Ford, Shanahan, Carroll and our back up offensive line. And Shanahan still didn't learn his lesson from the SB loss with the Falcons doing the exact same thing against us in SB 54. He stopped running the ball when he should have continued. Had he continued running, no way we win that SB. Just saying. But no, with a 20-6 lead with 6:37 to go he starts passing????????????
Originally Posted by DRM08:
The main one I want to see is Ring #3, which will shut up Troy Aikman once and for all. Talking shit about a 22 year old kid in his first season. “Let me know when he gets 3 rings.” Screw Aikman.
Obviously Lamar is a better runner (though Patrick has a knack for running in key situations in the playoffs). But I'm just not all that scared about his ~263 yard average against us vs. Patrick's ~379 yard average against them. Maybe he'll be better this year - we'll see. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Chiefshrink:
No doubt Brady was gifted 4 SBs by Dee Ford, Shanahan, Carroll and our back up offensive line.
You can add a 5th ring with the Tuck Rule, which did not exist before 1999 and did not exist after 2013. He is the only great QB in history to benefit from this bullshit rule. That play was a damn fumble by Brady and should have ended the game. Lucky as hell to get a ring out of that situation. [Reply]
Originally Posted by RavensMania:
keep reading these stats if it makes you feel good, but make sure you come to a Ravens board on Monday ... purpleflock.com and post the stat line of Sundays game.
We’re not the mouth breathing dumb fuck on opposing fan’s message board. Your team is gonna take a hard L, and it’s gonna be a rough couple weeks following it. But it suggest filling your time with eating fuck pie, queer! Now run and tell that, mother Flocker! [Reply]
Originally Posted by DRM08:
No matter what Andy is planning, the OL has to be very physical. If they can kick ass, everything becomes a lot easier on the offensive side of the ball. I want to see a very effective run game with Pacheco, which can help slow down the Ravens pass rush and potentially open up some play action chances as well. It all starts with the OL. They have to play great. They cannot shit the bed here or Andy's plans will go to hell in a hurry, lol
Originally Posted by RunKC:
It's gonna come down to the OL on both teams. Whoever pass protects better will likely win.
It always comes down to the "trench play" especially when 2 great teams meet.:-) [Reply]
Originally Posted by comochiefsfan:
Surely Britt Reid wouldn’t be dumb enough to drink and drive two days before flying to the Super Bowl.
I totally get your point that dumb people do dumb things at the wrong time. But even IF Britt had never done this we still lose that SB with a back up offensive line. Yes, it did not help matters but, just saying. [Reply]
The more content I consume, the more I don’t even know why the Chiefs would show up Sunday. No need to board any planes. They don’t stand a chance against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. [Reply]
Obviously Lamar is a better runner (though Patrick has a knack for running in key situations in the playoffs). But I'm just not all that scared about his ~263 yard average against us vs. Patrick's ~379 yard average against them. Maybe he'll be better this year - we'll see.
Their argument is "he's different this year!" ...and then you see he's at 261 yards/game for the regular season (slightly lower the Texans game). [Reply]
Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19:
The more content I consume, the more I don’t even know why the Chiefs would show up Sunday. No need to board any planes. They don’t stand a chance against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens.
Ravens board has entire thread talking about how this thread is overly confident while they make comments like "wonder how they'll feel when we're up 2 scores," and generally acting like they're an unstoppable force.
Hell, I wouldn't even say this thread is all that confident (not nearly as much as the Bills thread), we're just feeling really damn good about the Chiefs after Sunday night. [Reply]
Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19:
The more content I consume, the more I don’t even know why the Chiefs would show up Sunday. No need to board any planes. They don’t stand a chance against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens.
It is the same thing every time. They should not have bothered showing up in Buffalo last week with the supposedly unbeatable home field advantage. KC shouldn't have bothered showing up in the Super Bowl against the loaded rosters of the Niners & Eagles. Might as well not even play the games, lol [Reply]
