Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud:
So, one million have shipped. That doesn't really help the other 348 million that haven't been tested.
No one knows were we are in terms of infection due to the lack of tests available. ER's in California will not administer a test unless the patient is showing advanced symptoms, which virtually eliminates everyone else.
Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud:
Never once did I claim that 25 million could be tested, pete.
The fact of the matter is that a very, very small percentage of Americans have been tested and those that have been tested have shown advanced symptoms.
Once again, you aren't reading what I said.... [Reply]
Originally Posted by BleedingRed:
Right because that wouldn't help the problem. Again the WHO/CDC said 93% of test being done right now are negative.
Those tests are being sent to specific hot zones. So we wont know for months how bad it was. But that has nothing to do with the USA's ability. It has everything to do with China's bullshit in not telling the world correct information.
We have moved patient zero all the way back to 11/7 now... So for 2 whole months China let its citizens fly all around the world.
Dude, you're missing the point.
No one knows how many have been infected, outside of the tests that have already been given to those that have shown advanced symptoms.
And no one knows how many have been infected and may have recovered.
We may have 10 million people in Los Angeles, New York, Seattle and Ohio combined that have been exposed, shown little to no symptoms, whose bodies have already created immunity to the disease.
But due to the lack of testing, no one knows for sure, which is why 60 million Americans are basically on House Arrest. [Reply]
Originally Posted by O.city:
Sympathetic use in my understanding is more when you’re at the end of the line they can try anything
This is essentially correct-- though it's "compassionate use". :-) If a patient does not respond to (or loses response to) or cannot tolerate all existing therapies, doctors can (with the consent of the manufacturer, in my experience) grant use of medications not specifically approved to treat that disease (and it gets even more precise than that, but that's close enough) on a compassionate use basis. In this case, since there are no known drugs, until and unless (a) (hydroxy)chlorquinine is approved in this indication, or (b) something else is, all (hydroxy)chloroquinine prescriptions would be on a compassionate use basis. [Reply]
The situation has stabilized, but not for the better.
As you've all probably seen the ICUs/hospitals are at capacity. Those lucky enough to get on a ventilator or receive oxygen have a fighting chance. Even a majority of the elderly who are hospitalized are making it through.
Problem is, those beds are taken and it can take weeks to recover. There is no place to put the 5K+ new cases that are being tabulated each day until someone gets better or dies. Beds do open up, but far slower than the new cases are arriving.
So the 5K+ who have been getting it are deposited into the same outcome charts as everyone else. Around 10% will end up needing hospitalization that isn't available. A large percentage will die without the medical intervention that isn't available.
Not sure how we manage a different outcome -- hopefully the lockdowns do the trick in slowly the total cases because once we reach capacity (and I have no idea when that is so I'm not trying to predict millions of deaths or anything) we're going to see a percentage (hopefully smaller than Italy) that become critical have no recourse but to fight through it.
Sometimes you just have to step back and realize what a very sad situation this is and hope for the best. [Reply]
Originally Posted by BleedingRed:
I wouldn’t doubt it, testing capacity isn’t a problem anymore. People need to move off that talking point. The USA is testing more people per day now than any country. Hence the spike in infection.
Did you see the presser from the Kansas Department of Health and Environment today?
At least in KS, we are going to run out of tests by tomorrow night if we don't get more.
KS is looking at different ways of making testing available including private partnerships and helping hospitals set up their own testing capabilities.
On the positive side of things, there has been around a 4% positive test rate so far, and that has held pretty consistently, however, it will take another week or two to really get the data we need to fully understand the trajectory of virus.
Given the limited number of tests available, only those who seem to be in pretty dire conditions with underlying conditions will be tested.
JoCo and Wyandotte Counties already have community spread, so if someone tests negative for other illnesses, they are just going to assume the person has coronavirus and needs to self quarantine--that should be fine for most folks as they will get over it.
Right now there are no state plans for mandated shelter in place for the state, and as long as people aren't being "stupid" (Dr. Norman's words), it shouldn't be needed, but it could change, but they aren't expecting it.
KS currently has capacity to serve those who need treatment, and that is why we are putting safeguards in place now with the hopes that we don't exceed our capacity.
The real strategy is to "kick the can" down the road long enough to get a vaccine.
Originally Posted by Donger:
The coronavirus measures in place in the hard hit Lombardy region of northern Italy are “not strict enough,” according to Chinese medical experts helping the country deal with the crisis.
The situation in Lombardy right now "is similar to what we experienced two months ago in Wuhan, China, the epicenter of COVID-19," the Chinese Red Cross vice president, Sun Shuopeng, said Thursday in a press conference in Milan, Italy.
"In the city of Wuhan after one month since the adoption of the lockdown policy, we see a decreasing trend from the peak of the disease," Sun Shuopeng said. "Here in Milan, the hardest hit area by COVID-19, there isn't a very strict lockdown: public transportation is still working and people are still moving around, you're still having dinners and parties in the hotels and you're not wearing masks. We need every citizen to be involved in the fight of COVID-19 and follow this policy.”
Freaking masks man. We need to be cranking those things about by the millions and requiring them to go out in public until this thing is over.
Doesn't have to be N95, just surgical. It can't be that hard to make surgical masks can it? [Reply]
KANSAS CITY, Mo. — The number of COVID-19 cases in Missouri nearly doubled on Friday, going from 28 to to 47, as officials throughout the state sought to get ahead of the coronavirus crisis.
State health officials said St. Louis County and Kansas City have the most cases, with seven each, while Greene County has six. Pulaski, Scott and St. Charles counties each reported their first cases. A person in Boone County is the state’s only known death from the virus.
Have to wonder what effect the availability of testing kits is having on these spikes in numbers. My guess is that that's far more likely than those just being new transmissions. [Reply]
Originally Posted by petegz28:
Generally speaking they don't. Most people don't buy N95 masks. And in subsequent posts I conceded N95 masks do work. But whateva
And you are saying that you think that non-N95 masks aren't capable of stopping droplet spread? [Reply]
Originally Posted by suzzer99:
Freaking mask man. We need to be cranking those things about by the millions and requiring them to go out in public until this thing is over.
Hospitals need 'em, and not just 1 per healthcare professional... They need as many as can be manufactured at this point. Once they're stocked for a year or so, then we can talk about the average Joes wearing them in public. I realize the two concepts go hand-in-hand, but you've got to prioritize the known crisis first. [Reply]
