David Ojabos tape last year was very impressive and we have talked endlessly about his fit here and elsewhere. We’ve talked about his ability being a top 15 pick kind of player. We’ve talked about how those guys won’t be in our range in the next decade because Mahomes will always having us in contention for a title so we will be picking at the tail end of the first every year, unless a big trade up is done.
What I’m going to attempt to do is rationalize his actual value in his present state assuming reports that it was a “clean tear” are true and that he shouldn’t miss more than a year before returning to the field. At his age and todays surgeons ability to perform these surgeries more routinely means there’s a reasonable chance he gets to close to full strength in 2023 and possibly on the field before the playoffs this season.
Pick 15 (his perceived value prior to injury) is worth 55.08 points in the Rich Hill chart. That value is based on his attributes and potential NFL upside as a high end edge rusher that would be cost controlled for 5 years as a first round pick. By losing a year due to recovery and rehab, that drops that value, but how do we asses how much it drops by? Every NFL team is trying to find out where he sits on their board with those factors involved.
Here’s where it may get rough for Ojabo:
-He’s a 1 year starter
-He was playing across from a rusher equally or more talented as him
-His game is based on explosion, bend and change of direction blended with power. The injury puts all of those attributes at risk.
-This Edge class has 10 or so pass rushers that can all start playing in their rookie seasons.
-If he’s not worth a 1st, that drops his value by 20% right there by the loss of the 5th year option.
-If he’s worth a second or later, he’s only going to be available for 3 of those years, so that further drops his value to teams as that’s 30 (or more) games he won’t suit up for the team that drafts him. Also, once he’s able to play, there’s no assurance he regains his explosiveness that made him so intriging.
Realistically, you’d have to place his current value at pick 33 (31.24 points) minus 25% (for the loss of the year for rehab) and that brings his value in draft value points down to 23.43 points. Basically the equivalent of pick 44. That might even be viewed by some as a best case scenario of his current value.
That’s figuring that the team that drafts him thinks he can make a full recovery and provide the impact we saw on tape after rehab. That’s a lot to ask and may not be rooted in objective thinking that’s required when managing the type of resources GMs are given to run NFL teams with. Whatever GM takes him will be gambling a big part of his job on that move, especially when a premium pick is used…especially if he’s taken in the first. That’s a “you better be right” kind of swing for the fences.
I don’t see mocks reflecting this drop in value as I still see him going in the first 25-30 picks in most of them.
Should we almost expect him to have a good chance to be there when we pick at 50? Is it possible he falls to the high 50s or even to our pick at 62, with all this taken into consideration? Players with injuries during the process drop significantly sometimes. I guess we will see. [Reply]
Jim Nagy, a long-time NFL scout and executive director of the Senior Bowl, wrote a day after the injury. “Most NFL teams we’ve spoken with weren’t expecting immediately production Ojabo’s rookie year. He’s very young football-wise, so teams are banking on Years 2-4.”
Nagy called Ojabo a “developmental” player with a “high ceiling.”
If that’s true and NFL teams still like what Ojabo brings, it will be a race to see which franchise exercises a pick first on the 6-foot-4, 250-pound athletic edge-rusher.
At the NFL Scouting Combine this year, Ojabo ran the 40-yard dash in 4.55 seconds and recorded a vertical jump of 35 inches, both extraordinary numbers for a player his size. Which makes Ojabo such an intriguing prospect. NFL teams love the speed, size and athleticism, and sometimes the combination is hard to pass up.
That would explain Mel Kiper’s decision to take Ojabo 30th in a new two-round mock draft with Todd McShay for ESPN.com, calling him “a pass-rusher with top-10 upside.”
More: Mel Kiper mock: Michigan S Dax Hill moves into first round of 2022 NFL Draft
“The only reason Ojabo dropped this far is the torn Achilles he suffered in March,” Kiper wrote. “The Chiefs can afford to wait on him. He could make an impact down the stretch of the season.”
In fact, in his latest mock draft, Kiper projected Ojabo to the Detroit Lions at No. 34 — just two picks into the second round.
His colleague, McShay, thinks Ojabo could fall further — to the Philadelphia Eagles at No. 51 — but still well within the range of being an early-Day 2 pick. [Reply]
Originally Posted by BossChief:
Man…if you don’t take him at 29/30 and he’s still there after 40, I think you need to make calls about moving up from 50 or 62 to go get him.
If you're willing to trade up to get him at 40, there's no reason at all not to just take him at 30 and get the 5th year option.
If you think he's THAT good, then he's a 1st round pick. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
If you're willing to trade up to get him at 40, there's no reason at all not to just take him at 30 and get the 5th year option.
If you think he's THAT good, then he's a 1st round pick.
This. It would lessen the pain of that redshirt year as well. But you damn well better still draft two DEs in this draft even after drafting him. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
If you're willing to trade up to get him at 40, there's no reason at all not to just take him at 30 and get the 5th year option.
If you think he's THAT good, then he's a 1st round pick.
totally agreed. It’s been my view since he tore it.
Originally Posted by The Franchise:
This. It would lessen the pain of that redshirt year as well. But you damn well better still draft two DEs in this draft even after drafting him.
Imo we probably should take 3 anyway. That cupboard is empty after this year.
Herring and Danna.
Taking Ojabo just makes it more prevalent. [Reply]
Originally Posted by saphojunkie:
Josh Paschal in late 2nd?
That's a full round early, IMO.
Maybe 2.
Just looks like another Mike Danna to me. I don't see anywhere near the athleticism to be a difference maker.
Then again, where I see a rich man's Mike Danna, others see a value play Cameron Thomas (who is a discount George Karlaftis) so it is what it is... [Reply]
Originally Posted by BossChief:
If we don’t come out of this draft with a solid and deep pass rush, 2 corners and 1 difference making WR (but realistically 2)…Veach failed.
I could see us taking a safety and corner in the first round and it being a home run. [Reply]
Did we have really good corner play? Or did our safety play cover a lot of their growing pains?
We play three safeties. Teams have to throw to keep up with us. You can rush them or have a great secondary or both. Why do we have to find corners late and not pass rushers late? [Reply]