When spring training finally got started, the predictions started rolling in. I think most people were somewhere around where I was - 79 wins. Some were a touch higher, a few were lower, very few were in the neighborhood where this team ended up. There are any number of reasons that things went sideways for this team. You can look at the short spring for a young pitching staff as an issue. You can argue the coaching simply wasn’t good enough. And you can say the players were the problem. Those aren’t the only possibilities, but the reality is that it was a combination of all of it that led to the disappointment that was 2022.

But I believe there are times when failure can lead to success. I can’t tell you if that will happen out of the 2022 failure, but I can tell you that if they’d won 78 games and vaguely hung around a playoff race until the last month of the year that you likely don’t see the changes that will be coming from this organization in the coming days, weeks and months. They’ve already moved on from Dayton Moore. I doubt that happens with a season in line with expectations. I would anticipate Mike Matheny, Cal Eldred and others on the coaching staff will follow close behind. This will be an organization that looks very different the next time we see them on the field in Surprise in February.

And that’s a good thing. The changes quietly, and in some ways loudly, were happening throughout the season. We saw big league debuts all season.

Let’s take a look at all 13 debuts and when they happened:

Bobby Witt Jr. - April 7
Collin Snider - April 9
MJ Melendez - May 3
Dairon Blanco - May 20
Brewer Hicklen - May 26
Jose Cuas - May 31
Vinnie Pasquantino - June 28
Nate Eaton - July 14
Nick Pratto - July 14
Freddy Fermin - July 15
Maikel Garcia - July 15
Michael Massey - July 15
Drew Waters - August 22

This isn’t a list of players who we’ll never hear from again. Some might be, but I count eight as players who could very easily play a big role in a playoff team in the near future. The Royals essentially called up their next core throughout the 2022 season and we saw them grow. We saw Witt go through his ups and downs throughout the season. We saw Pasquantino blossom into a guy who I think will be considered not just the best hitter on the Royals, but one of the best in the game next season. Melendez slotted in as an unconventional but effective leadoff hitter and worked to learn a new position at the big league level. Eaton and Massey and Pratto showed they could be maintstays with a little work. And Waters ended his year on an especially strong note. It was fun to watch these guys.

I’m not going to dive too deep into the numbers because I want to save something for some offseason analysis! But they are one of four teams to get 2,000 plate appearances from rookies. The other three haven’t come close to the production of the Royals. Only the Pirates have gotten close to the number of rookie home runs. Nobody has even approached the number of rookie stolen bases. Their walk rate is one of the 10 best in baseball. Their ISO is one of the five best. They’re young and while they may not be truly good just yet, they’ve clearly shown big signs of being there soon.

And that doesn’t even mention their young starters who we started to see in 2021. These are the innings pitched for their young starters entering 2022:

Brady Singer - 192.2
Kris Bubic - 180.0
Daniel Lynch - 68.0
Jonathan Heasley - 14.2

It’s so easy to think that they should have this all figured out. And I’ll say that Singer figuring it out has made it a little easier to take this, but these are not veterans. These are young pitchers who have dealt with a deficiency in their instruction since their debut. The coaching staff will change and the clock will start on them, but it’s very easy to see that if the pitching can somehow turn, this whole thing could actually turn quickly. I just believe in a lot of ways, this team isn’t as far away as they might seem to be by looking at their play this year and their overall record.

Normally I use this space to break down the most recent game, but it was obviously nothing to write home about. Heasley got an early lead and then got lit up to give up the lead before the offense even had a second chance to bat. It was a very Royals game. So no, I’m not going to spend time telling you that his velocity was down again or that his command was brutal or whatever. Because it doesn’t matter. Okay, maybe I’d be excited if he had a good start, but whatever. The point is that the season is over and now the fun can start for Royals fans.

What I really want to do is take this opportunity to thank all of you who have been readers this season (and last!). Whether you subscribed the first day I launched this thing last February or this is the first newsletter of mine you’ve ever read, you’re why I write this. So thank you for opening emails and reading and commenting and all that good stuff. Without you, this newsletter that has been way more successful than I ever could have imagined would be absolutely nothing.

I’ve got a lot of fun stuff planned this offseason, so I hope you’ll stick around. I’ll be here to analyze any move, look back on this season (begrudgingly), have a few mailbags and a lot more. The season may have ended, but we’ve got plenty to talk about. I’m looking forward to you all joining me for the ride until we can get to spring training once again.

This is J.J. Picollo’s team.

That was clear on Wednesday evening as the Royals’ Executive Vice President of Baseball Operations and General Manager made his first major move as a solo artist in the front office, firing manager Mike Matheny. Pitching coach Cal Eldred was also let go.

From the official club release:

"We are grateful to Mike for leading us through some unusual times these last three seasons,” Picollo said. “He met those challenges head on and helped us move forward in a positive manner. We thank him for his leadership and know his influence will have a positive impact moving forward."

For an organization that once put its full trust in The Process, they measure the status of the rebuild in tangible progress. It’s all about that winning percentage. That progress, at times, was frustratingly and agonizingly slow. Matheny’s primary sin as a manager is that his team—expected to make strides in 2022—is worse than the previous season. By a large margin.

2020 - .433 winning percentage
2021 - .457 winning percentage
2022 - .401 winning percentage

By looking at the winning percentages from 2020 and ’21, you can understand the Royals, as an organization, targeting an approach to .500 baseball this year. (From July to the end of the 2021 season, the Royals had a 41-42 record.) Even if that benchmark was optimistic, given the personnel on hand. Never mind that the break-even point has been fairly elusive in Dayton Moore’s tenure with the Royals. The 2022 season has been a failure in that regard; a massive stumble.

Inflexibility and inability to adapt cost Moore his job in the front office. Failure to meet modest expectations cost Matheny his.

The Royals made it official on Thursday, firing Matheny after three years in charge of the dugout. His record of 165-219 in Kansas City translates to a .430 winning percentage. He’s Trey Hillman without the unicycle.

Upon arrival in Kansas City, there were early indications that Matheny had changed some of his core managerial philosophies. He seemed a little looser than his reputation in St. Louis, a little more relaxed in his dealings with the media. With a reputation as a bullpen-by-numbers guy, his early management of the relief corps eschewed defined roles and showed a willingness to adapt to particular situations. His lineup construction, with Whit Merrifield entrenched in the leadoff spot, was generally solid. There was a hope that Matheny had undergone a Yostian transformation as skipper. Ned Yost changed after his experience in Milwaukee and understood that he needed to put his faith in the kids. Couldn’t Matheny do the same? It kind of felt like it.

Then everything changed in 2022.

Maybe it was the heightened expectations and the pressures that go along with that, but almost from the start of the year, Matheny was showing signs of reverting to St. Louis Mike. Observers noted the clubhouse was tense and on edge.

By the end of Matheny’s tenure in St. Louis, there were reports that he had lost the clubhouse. He fell out with some veterans, notably Dexter Fowler and allowed other veterans (Bud Norris) to haze rookies. While there’s nothing to suggest that this sort of thing has happened in Kansas City, the above Tweet can make you wonder what kind of clubhouse culture Matheny cultivates.

The cracks were starting to show midway through last season.

One thing we do know: These kids currently on the roster like to enjoy themselves. The wins just feel a little extra fun when there’s a Vinnie Pasquantino or Bobby Witt Jr. or MJ Melendez leading the charge. The dugout looks like a good place to be when that’s happening. The veterans currently on the roster in Zack Greinke and Salvador Perez help bring a solid vibe.

Yet, there’s a certain intensity around Matheny that’s always been there. Let’s say he does a fair job masking that from the media, but behind the closed doors of the clubhouse? It looks and sounds as if the players weren’t especially appreciative of that intensity.

Maybe the climate has changed as the roster evolved from one that favored veterans to a lot more rookie-laden. Maybe not. The core question is: Is Mike Matheny the manager to lead a roster of young baseball players as they navigate the league and attempt to improve?

I have to hold myself accountable and allow how I’ve collosally flip-flopped regarding Matheny. Initally, I hated the idea. Partially because it was so obvious the Royals had decided on him as the successor to Yost without casting a wide search. A large part of my distaste had to do with those issues in St. Louis.

I wrote this in October of 2019 about what was feeling inevitable at the moment:

He was a bad fit for a team with young players. Uh-oh. Remember how patient Yost was with The Process generation? How he wouldn’t pull Alcides Escobar for a pinch hitter because he didn’t want to “get in his dome?” How he expressed confidence practically all the time, much to the dismay of those who watched the games? It sounds like Matheny was the polar opposite in St. Louis, routinely pulling young players from the lineup when they struggled and keeping them off balance by his lack of communication about their status.

I’ve thought about Escobar’s Dome (yeah, that phrase should totally be in caps) a few times this season as Matheny has gone for a win by lifting a young player for Ryan O’Hearn or Hunter Dozier. This is a roster full of young players so Matheny has no choice but to play them on the regular, but at times it feels like he’s sacrificing their development for an attempt at a meaningless victory. I digress…

Once he was in charge, things felt different. I bought that narrative that he had changed, just like we saw with Yost. Matheny seemed more open to analytics, to utilizing some strategy in his game management. His handling of the bullpen was kind of unique in a good way. His lineup construction was generally solid.

Things changed. Progress stopped. Everything took a step back and Matheny seemed ill-equipped to handle a young clubhouse.

His bullpen management has become highly questionable. Matheny has used relievers in back-to-back games with no rest on 114 occasions this year, the fourth most in baseball. According to Baseball Reference, their OPS+ allowed in that split is 119, meaning they’re 19 percent worse than league average when pitching on back-to-back days. Jose Cuas is a cautionary tale of Matheny’s bullpen mismanagement. He’s gone back-to-back 11 times this year and has been smoked to the tune of .395/.510/.579. Other relievers like Josh Staumont and Dylan Coleman have done extremely well in that split. But overall, it’s not great.

And who can forget the image of Staumont rubbing his shoulder in the dugout after throwing a season-high 42 pitches in his last outing on August 23?

In St. Louis, when Matheny was dismissed, the front office wondered if they had given their manager a roster that provided too much roster flexibility. Once rigid in his lineup construction, the Cardinals grew frustrated with an increasingly revolving door approach to the starting nine.

We’ve seen an interesting meld in Kansas City. Matheny has generally written the top of his lineup card in pen. Whether it was Merrifield leading off for all of Matheny’s first two seasons in charge or the top third of Melendez, Witt Jr. and Perez in the latter half of this year, there’s been some stability at the top of the order. However, just like in St. Louis, there are so many possibilities that Matheny just never seemed to have settled on a consistent lineup. Is that frustrating to players? Probably. The constant shuffling in and out of the lineup, never mind the fact they are moving all over the field probably doesn’t bring out the best in players. Matheny at one point bizarrely bragged about using a spreadsheet to mete out playing time.

Sure, the continued playing time of Hunter Dozier frustrated. As did the handling of Nick Pratto at the end of the season. When it comes to this point in a 97-loss season there isn’t any one thing that we can point at and say with certainty that that is the reason he was sacked. It’s the small stuff. Successful managers navigate the small stuff.

Matheny doesn’t seem to have the patience or temperament to suffer the small stuff that comes with leading a young, rebuilding club. Both Moore and Matheny are fond of saying “iron sharpens iron.” Sometimes, a lighter touch is necessary.

Is there really anything to say about Eldred getting fired as pitching coach? I mean, this was an obvious move that really should have happened last winter. The success of Brady Singer aside, you can’t point to a single positive development in the Royals pitching in 2022. For an organization that went all in on pitching in the 2018 draft, that was inexcusable. The stakes were simply too high.

I’ll have more on the dismissal of Eldred in the coming days.

The vibe has shifted since the Royals jettisoned several veterans, but as the losses mount, with little signs of progress at the major league level, it has been obvious to anyone watching this team that changes need to be made.

I remain adamant that one of the reasons Dayton Moore was shown the door was in his inability to embrace change. We saw how difficult it was for him to fire Trey Hillman, even when it was obvious to everyone that change needed to be made. And that was with Ned Yost in the organization, waiting for his next opportunity!

I keep coming back to this because it feels important. Royals owner John Sherman wants to build a new ballpark in downtown Kansas City. He and his partners stand to earn a substantial financial gain if they can convince the city and the taxpayers that this would be a civic improvement. Based on what we’ve seen the last three years, that would be a difficult sell.

Attendance on a per-game basis is up this year from 2021, but that’s due to the Covid restrictions that were in place early that year. It’s probably better to make a comparison with the 2018 and 2019 seasons, years when the Royals were beginning their rebuild.

2022 - 15,971
2021 - 14,316
2019 - 18,495
2018 - 20,556

The 2018 squad was the first without the core that won the World Series in 2015. They had zero hope of contending and ultimately lost 104 games. They still drew over 20,000 fans a night.

With modest expectations in 2022, the Royals crashed almost from the start, winning just seven games in April. Attendance this year was down almost a quarter from the first year of the rebuild. While I would be skeptical that Sherman and his group are losing massive amounts of cash, I am certain that this isn’t what they signed up for. Moore was shown the door and Picollo was handed the keys. This is his show now and his show alone. It was necessary to move this team forward.

Now the search is on. The Royals could stay internal with a candidate like Drew Saylor, or they could cast a wider net throughout the industry. One thing is certain: They require a manager adept at bringing along young talent—both hitters and pitchers. The Royals need someone who can relate to these players while building a clubhouse culture of confidence and trust.

The first big move of Picollo’s tenure was firing Matheny. His second big move will be finding the right manager.