The consensus is we overpaid for Taylor, but did we really? I mean McGlinchey got more than him to play RT, so realistically he didn't even get the biggest contract on the market at that position, and I'd argue he's just as good if not better than McGlinchey at RT. I think he's the one who kind of set the market so Veach had to go to that $80 million level if he wanted to get the deal done. Considering that they also wanted him to move to LT, they had to boost the offer a little more as well.

If we waited around, could he have gotten him for less? Maybe, but then you're playing that same game you did with Brown. He went in and got it done for what the market said was a pretty fair price at the time. We also don't know what else Taylor had on the table. He was being pretty heavily pursued from all indications, unlike Brown who nobody wanted because he sucks royal ass and is a punk ass bitch.
[Reply]

Hopefully this guy doesn't get anyone hurt trying to 1 on 1 block on the blind side
[Reply]

I'd certainly try that. I don't really want to purchase it, but I'd certainly try it.
[Reply]

I think that's precisely what's happening. Of course, then you have clowns on here wanting to "hurry up" and make a trade when it's abundantly clear that Beach doesn't operate in ANY sense as a hostage.

I also don't think Mahomes, Kelce, and Jones are going to twist because they KNOW how Bert operates and appreciate it. I'm guessing Pat's contract large resembles what Bert had planned going in. I'm guessing much of the framework was his.
[Reply]

And Taylor isn't playing on that deal. That's the other thing I told my friend.

Don't worry about the contract - it's effectively a 3 year, $60 million deal. Some folks are saying "well they can get out of it in 2 years because only $40 million was guaranteed" but they're ignoring that the 2025 salary guarantees on the 3rd day of the 2024 league year. They're not cutting him before 2024 and paying him $40 million for 1 year.

So that 2025 guarantee will trigger as well. Once that happens it's 3/$60 million.

But in all reality, if he plays well after the first 2 years, they're going to extend that deal out. Honestly, if he plays well this season, they probably bonus out his salary next year to push some of that off next season's cap and bring that hit down nearer $15 million with the idea that they'll extend him prior to 2025 in a way that reduces what would then be a roughly $30 million cap hit (depending on how much base they turn to bonus) in 2025 down nearer $20 million.

I'd be surprised if we don't see cap hits over the next 4 years more along the lines of $6 million, 15 million, $20 million and $22 million. At that point you're talking about 4 years with cap figures in between $60 and $65 million.

What did Brown sign for? Oh that's right - 4/$64. And because he frontloaded the deal, that's what he's almost certainly going to have to play on (what benefit is there for Cincy to restructure those later years?). Or he could try to hold out but I think we know that if there's a way to screw up this process, he will.

I think you're probably looking at 6 in one hand, half dozen in the other when all is said and done. And Taylor simply fits this offense better than Brown.
[Reply]

Absolutely. Veach did what he did because he had to for the reasons you mentioned. There was zero chance Brown was ever going to act in good faith because he had an inexperienced agent who didn’t gauge the market ahead of time. As such Brown Jr had a heightened sense of his worth and it took the market to humble him.

Even had KC not signed Taylor I just don’t see Brown Jr coming back here with his tail (or fox tail) between his legs. Pride would have prevented that and he would probably want to accept Veach’s initial offer which I almost guarantee Veach no longer offers. He was not going to accept market value with KC. He would rather go to a rival for that money. The biggest impact of KC waiting would have meant spending more on either Taylor (if still available) or someone else.
[Reply]

Are we sure Jones gets done at this point?
[Reply]

We are not.

But I've seen nothing to suggest that it's any LESS likely than it ever was.

I'd still give 2 to 1 in favor of an extension being reached at this point. Just perhaps not the kind of backloaded deal that's designed to free up a ton of cap space. It may just be a simple ol' extension where we work to keep a lifelong Chief and obvious force multiplier in red for 3-4 more years.
[Reply]

I thought so too, but what's the holdup?
[Reply]

It's a metric fucking ton of money.

I wonder - has there been any news on a possible Jonathan Allen extension? Because wouldn't it seem likely that Jones and his camp would want to wait until after a possible Allen extension to plant their flag?

The rumors are that Jones isn't looking for Donald money, right? Well he most certainly doesn't want to be making less than Allen.

Now maybe an Allen deal isn't on the table. It might not be with Washington signing Payne. But he has zero guarantees past this season so I'd be surprised if his agent hasn't approached Washington about possibly getting that remedied and in the process adding another year or two to the back end. And if the Washington ownership situation is in flux, maybe that's just going to be back-burnered until it isn't?

If I'm betting, I'd say it's that Jones and his reps are waiting on an extension to come down the pipe from somewhere and looking to set that as the baseline. Though again, that's all presuming that the 'we aren't looking to make more than Donald' rumors are true.

If they AREN'T and he wants Donald money, then there are probably hard conversations being had at several different levels.
[Reply]

I think all of your analyses have been correct, but I'm not even convinced that Taylor was a Plan B at all. I think the Chiefs were good with bringing back Brown, but I'm guessing they had a grade/$ amount on Taylor and were looking forward to exercising that option as well; I'm not at all surprised it got done so quickly.
[Reply]

Payne signed for 4/$90 with a structure that actually makes the 4th year pretty palatable. so let's assume that's the baseline.

Can we take Jones and his $19.5 million base this season, $500K workout bonus and $1.5 million sack bonus, lock them in and then add a 4 year, $100 million extension to the back of that?

Should we? He'd be 33 when that extension is over. Donald is presently 32. Okay - I can live with that.

{cracks knuckles}

So lock in his roughly $21.5 million this year and add another $100 million to it and you're looking at a new deal of 5 years, $121.5 million. You're probably looking at guaranteeing 70% of that if you want a deal done at those numbers. So lets say $85 million guaranteed. We'll throw $40 million of that into a signing bonus and another $5 million of it will be covered by this year's salary.

So how 'bout this:

5/$123 million w/ a $40 million signing bonus and salaries of $5, $15, $18, $20 and $25 million.

Salaries in 23 and 24 are guaranteed at signing. The '25 salary guarantees on the 3rd day of the '24 league year, providing effective guarantees of $78 million over 3 years. The 20 million in 2026 is reasonable enough still (provided cap expansion) that there's a chance he plays on it at 32 years old (the same age Donald is now).

Cap hits are:

$20 million (the 'new' $13 million figure plus the $7 million restructure bonus that's already baked into the cap from the previous restructure)
$23 million
$26 million
$28 million (with $16 million in dead money if you pull the chute; could be spread out over 2 years)

Is that enough? It beats anything that's ever been done. He doesn't see a $28 million cap hit (what he has right now) for 4 years, if at all. We lock him in through the remainder of his prime with a reasonable figure in his out year(s) and a tolerable dead money hit if he doesn't age particularly well.

It seems fair....? It gets him a TON of money in his pocket now and it gives him a bump over this year's salary on his AAV over the coming 3 seasons. It's a better deal than Payne got and pretty comparable to anything Donald got despite the cap increases.

{shrug}

Works in my head...
[Reply]

Who the fck is Allen?
[Reply]

Jonathan Allen - DT for Washington.

Same age as Jones and like Jones, a very good interior rusher who occasionally has lapses in run support (but also like Jones, has improved in this area as he's matured).

He's not in that Donald/Jones/Lawrence/Hargrave tier of interior rushers but he's probably at the head of the next wave. Very very good player.
[Reply]

What’s the original point of that dish? Someone trailer park schmo had to make room in the fridge and decided to cook all the leftovers at once? And now it’s considered fine cuisine in Cincinnati?
[Reply]