For all things Royals in 2022. #3 minor league system according to Baseball America. The Bobby Witt era should begin this year. Will Salvy still be the homerun king? How does the glut of infield players work out? Will the young pitchers take the next step?
Free Agents/Trades Acquisitions
Zack Greinke, P
Amir Garrett, P
Taylor Clarke, P
Top 10 Prospects from Baseball America
1. Bobby Witt, SS
2. Asa Lacy, P
3. MJ Melendez, C
4. Nick Pratto, 1B
5. Jackson Kowar, P
6. Kyle Isabel, OF
7. Frank Mozzicato, P
8. Ben Kudrna, P
9. Jonathan Bowlan, P
10. Vinnie Pasquantino, 1B
Duncan's Top Royals Prospects
Spoiler!
1. Bobby Witt, Jr., SS. MLB.
This status lasts about another 4 weeks, but let’s take a moment to appreciate having the top guy in the minor league prospects lists for at least a little while longer. Witt has prodigious ability and the question is really just IF he can meet it. They have not had a prospect like this in my lifetime, and really probably ever. Combine insane raw physical skills (right there with Adalberto Mondesi and Willie Wilson in the ranks right behind Bo Jackson) with unbelievable work ethic, a humble-but-confident nature, and already having shown he can struggle and overcome to achieve big success, and you have the tools for a show-stopping centerpiece. Oh, and throw in the former-player’s kid aspect on it on top of things, and there is every reason to believe he’s going to succeed and succeed big.
2. M.J. Melendez, C, AAA Omaha.
I was early on putting him in this slot last year, and I don’t regret it. The power, the ability to be a good defender behind the dish as well as having the athletic ability to play 3B or LF, too, and you have a really valuable overall piece and FANTASTIC understudy for Salvador Perez.
3. Asa Lacy, LHP. AA Northwest Arkansas
Whoa, let’s get crazy again. Lacy has outstanding stuff. Top of the system. He got hurt and lost his command during COVID times, but appears to be back on track so far this spring. If his command sticks, this is a guy who can move quickly. And his ceiling is really second to nobody in the minor league pitching ranks.
4. Vinnie Pasquantino, 1B. AA Northwest Arkansas
Vinnie starts the season back at AA due to the guy who follows him on the list here. He just hits, folks. I love his combination of contact, loud contact, plate discipline, and lack of strikeouts. The Billy Butler comparisons are annoying (in that I will NEVER refer to this man as Italian Breakfast except in the instance that just occurred), but the Billy Butler comparisons are also fairly apt… if you made Butler a lefthanded hitter, AND improved his body/athleticism from a 20 to a 40, AND if you added that little extra touch of power we all wished Butler could consistently find.
5. Nick Pratto, 1B, AAA Omaha.
Hey, let’s stay at 1B. Pratto has flashy power and I love his batting eye AND his hand-eye coordination. The hair he’s been rocking this spring is also pretty sweet. I slot him just behind Pasquantino simply because I think his bat profile is more volatile. The glove and arm are sweet/plus for 1B, though.
6. Jonathan Bowlan, RHP, AAA Omaha
Bowlan is coming back from Tommy John surgery, and this ranking is assuming that recovering is successful. If it his, you’re talking about a big, consistent SP who throws hard enough and has enough of a repertoire to really make things happen. If the recovery goes well, he may be shuttling to the majors in July to reinforce the rotation.
7. Nick Loftin, CF, AA Omaha.
Loftin is a guy who has really grown on me. I saw him as a quasi super-utility guy when the Royals drafted him, The full-time shift to CF (which means they think he has the speed and the overall defensive ability to handle CF in Kansas City) adds a lot of value here. The ultimate positive offensive upside is similar to peak Whit Merrifield, maybe with a touch more early power.
8. Michael Massey, 2B, AA Northwest Arkansas.
Massey was an absolute revelation last year, hitting for power and average and keeping his K rate down while playing a really strong 2B. He has a very sweet, short lefthanded stroke. This is another aggressive rating, but Massey has proven himself through a tough minor league assignment already, and the arrow is pointed up.
9. Ben Kudrna, RHP, Rookie Ball
Kudrna is a big, physical specimen with a lot of upside and potential. The fastball and slider are already nearly MLB-level in terms of velocity and movement (command needs work). Kudrna is a guy who, with luck, and health, and good development, could ascend to the top of a rotation.
10. Frank Mozzicato, LHP, Rookie Ball.
Mozzicato has a curveball that suggests he has a feel for spin. If you want to dream, you hope that the next 2-3 years turn the 175 he weighed when drafted into a rock-solid 220/225 and carries with it an increase in fastball velocity from 90-91, sitting 87-88, to 96-97, sitting 93-94. You pair his ability to spin the ball (which also suggests he should be able to easily master a sweeper slider) with that type of fastball velo and a changeup he already has a feel for, and it’s an exciting profile.
He has a little more to go in terms of growing into that projectability than Kudrna, which is why he slots right behind him.
11. Alec Marsh, RHP, AA Northwest Arkansas
Marsh missed a lot of 2021 to injury, but the hard-throwing righthander is another guy who could move quickly once the minor league season starts. He’s undeniably got the stuff of a quality major-league pitcher. The question is if he can master enough command to cash it in. This guy is a great example of TINSTAAPP.
12. Angel Zerpa, LHP, AAA Omaha
Zerpa might quickly outperform this slot. His stuff ticked up in 21 and he ended the season making a start in the majors. He’s nice depth to have, and honestly, I’m a big fan of just throwing numbers at pitching. Zerpa definitely helps create the depth you need to generate a top-notch and reliable home-grown rotation.
13. Maikel Garcia, SS, AA Northwest Arkansas
Garcia is a really intriguing hitter, a righthanded hitter who has a nice combination of contact skills and control of the strike zone (this cousin of Alcides Escobar is less savvy with the glove and more savvy at the plate). The Royals protected him for a reason (he’s on the 40-man).
14. Carter Jensen, C, A ??
Jensen is a local product whose bat will probably push him off C (as well as the Royals depth at that spot throughout the organization). This is a future 1B profile, and a nice one. He makes a lot of loud contact and shows an ability to lift the ball. Should be fun to watch this year.
15. Ben Hernandez, RHP, A+ Quad Rivers
Hernandez missed a good part of 2021 but still has that butterfly changeup and a classic pitcher’s profile. He’ll need to find a reliable swing-and-miss secondary to make it in the bigs, but if not, the fastball velocity and changeup should make him a quality high-leverage reliver.
16. Dylan Coleman, RHP, AAA Omaha
Speaking of relievers, Coleman is a hard-throwing righthander who probably spends most of 22 in the Royals’ pen. ½ of the compensation for the Rosenthal trade a few years back, Coleman has a big fastball and nasty breaking ball.
17. Will Klein, RHP, AA Northwest Arkansas
Speaking of relivers, everything I just said about Coleman? Yeah, you can say it about Klein, too. Klein regularly toyed with hitters at high A last year, striking out 121 hitters in just 70 1/3 innings pitched. For those counting at home, that’s a 15.5 K/9 rate. Yep. That’ll play.
18. Anthony Veneziano, LHP, AA Northwest Arkansas
Here’s another big, power arm. Veneziano hasn’t been relegated to bullpen only yet, though. His fastball bumped into the high 90s last year on a starter’s workload. He’s still looking for a changeup, but if he doesn’t find it, you’re looking at a really promising future bullpen fireballer.
19. Erick Pena, OF, A ?
Pena did… not have a strong 2021 full season debut. His struggles look a lot like those of Pratto and Melendez in 2019. Pena has the same type of raw toolkit to work from as those two, with great hands and natural power. He needs to fix a hitch in his swing and calm it down, but so did Melendez. Of this second ten grouping, Pena has the highest upside and could jump right into the top 5 of the org ranks.
20. Darryl Collins, OF, A+
Collins is an international signing out of Europe. I like the hitting package here – good eye and contact skills. He needs to make more loud contact, but if he can, really a nice guy.
Overall takeaways:
This is a system with a lot of depth. We could go another 10-12 deep and still be talking about guys with a good shot to make the majors. The changes to the organization’s approach are bearing fruit, as even less-heralded draftees are stepping forward.
The combination of upside (Witt, Melendez, Lacy), depth, and guys you can dream on is fun. It may not produce quite as much as the 2011 group did, but it does offer a more sustainable system, less reliant on a few big-ticket guys.
Originally Posted by Vladimir_Kyrilytch:
So I'm to understand you're the most insightful baseball guy on this website, and perhaps you are, but...."the future is hard to predict" hardly qualifies as amazing analysis. I'll keep an eye out for more substantive posts you might make in the future.
I didn't say it's "too hard to predict."
I said there are a lot of variables that lead to the extremely wide range of outcomes.
Whit Merrifield shouldn't have been as successful a player as he was, based on his tools. He enhanced his body and far out-produced expectations.
Could a scout have predicted he'd find a way to put on 25 pounds of muscle?
Things like that make it fun. And are why scouts tend to speak in "Ifs" a lot. [Reply]
I mean BWJ was about as sure fire as you can get
Its usually not that easy when you figure in development, work ethic and coaching
Royals first round picks are notoriously crap shoots
But thats what makes it fun to discuss, I guess
if you call a guy a ten time allstar after watching three games and he is...your a genius
if he isnt nobody remembers...Bubba was pretty well regarded and thats the downside
its easy to cherry pic after the fact [Reply]
Originally Posted by Vladimir_Kyrilytch:
So I'm to understand you're the most insightful baseball guy on this website, and perhaps you are, but...."the future is hard to predict" hardly qualifies as amazing analysis. I'll keep an eye out for more substantive posts you might make in the future.
The fact that there has only been 3 number 1 overall picks that have made the HOF is proof that projecting these guys' careers is really fucking hard. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Vladimir_Kyrilytch:
Scout VK checking in here with some answers:
Pasquantino: Stud in the making, but hurting his shoulder swinging is a very bad sign.
Pratto: bust in the making. It happens.
Singer: SP2/SP3 in the making
Bubic: Already a bust. Probably couldn't get outs in Japan, or probably Korea
Lynch: See Bubic
Kowar: See Lynch
Massey: more likely than not to be a solid everyday player
Witt Jr.: Not quite the superstar most hoped for, but very good. Adley is far better, but Witt is a legit 30/30 guy. It's just gonna be with a .240 average and a .320 OBP with him.
Melendez: Stud. Could end up better than Pasquantino given he hasn't put himself on the IL by swinging.
Isbel: not gonna happen, unfortunately. Nice speed/power combo on paper but nah.
Cross: too early to tell. No opinion.
Drew Waters: nope
In 2 or 3 years, I am going to link back to this very post as proof that I had my finger absolutely on the pulse of the Royal organization.
Won't argue with this analysis. The only question is, will a major coaching/philosophy shift improve any of the pitchers? [Reply]
Originally Posted by poolboy:
I mean BWJ was about as sure fire as you can get
Its usually not that easy when you figure in development, work ethic and coaching
Royals first round picks are notoriously crap shoots
But thats what makes it fun to discuss, I guess
if you call a guy a ten time allstar after watching three games and he is...your a genius
if he isnt nobody remembers...Bubba was pretty well regarded and thats the downside
its easy to cherry pic after the fact
On top of coaching, work ethic, and development you have to take into account injury or a mental health issue. Both of those things can derail a career.
These guys are playing the best of the best and if they lose just a tiny amount of talent or have one little thing go off balance, then they can go from all star talent to AAAA guy. [Reply]
Originally Posted by duncan_idaho:
I didn't say it's "too hard to predict."
I said there are a lot of variables that lead to the extremely wide range of outcomes.
Whit Merrifield shouldn't have been as successful a player as he was, based on his tools. He enhanced his body and far out-produced expectations.
Could a scout have predicted he'd find a way to put on 25 pounds of muscle?
Things like that make it fun. And are why scouts tend to speak in "Ifs" a lot.
Have you ever thought about becoming a phd in economics, Duncan? You could write books about how the stock market is volatile and it's hard to decide which stocks will rise and which will fall. Could get you a nobel prize! All you have to do is transfer your baseball wisdom to the realm of economics. [Reply]
Huge news about the banning of the shift. Also the potential and likelihood of robot umps at least for balls and strikes would lead us to these conclusions.
1. Groundball hitters are going to see the biggest benefit. You no longer can just be in the right place at the right time. Guys on the Royals who have high GB rates: Nicky Lopez 54% (lol), Ryan OHearn 46% (alot of hard GB contact), Kyle Isbel, Dozier, Pasquantino. Guys who have low GB rates: Nick Pratto 33% (lowest on team of more than 100 AB), Witt Jr.
Basically guys that have high hard contact rates and high GB rates are the best candidates to improve. These players would be Pasquantino, Melendez, Perez, Isbel and OHearn. Nobody is going to want to hear this but guys who have a relatively high FB and lower GB % combined with a low or medium hard hit % won't benefit from the shift ban AS MUCH which are Pratto, Witt Jr. And with Nicky Lopez its just a wash. He's lowest of the low in hard contact and highest of thr high on ground ball percentage.
2. Robot umps will favor guys with low chase rates because if there is anything we know about human umps is they call TOO MANY strikes. Robot umps don't care if a pitch is CLOSE enough on two strikes or if its a blowout and they are more inclined to call strikes. Guys with the lowest chase rates will benefit the most. Those guys on the Royals are: Nick Pratto, MJ Melendez, Vinny Pasquantino.
3. Athletic guys will also have more value. Teams and defenders will rely less on positioning and metrics and more on range. Athleticism at 2B and SS is going to be more important than ever since teams started shifting. I would have to think this favors guys like Witt Jr and Mondesi.
4. Pitch framing will be non-existent with robot umps. And our catchers are dogshit at pitch framing. This will be good for both Perez and Melendez.
In conclusion, the players who should benefit the most from these changes in my opinion and in order: MJ Melendez, Vinny Pasquantino, Ryan OHearn, Salvador Perez, Isbel. [Reply]
Bill James just had some comments about the shift...here's the 1st tweet in the exchange. He says it causes a 4-5 point net decrease in batting average.
@GreekGodOfHops You asked in a recent broadcast ho many balls go through BECAUSE of this shift, vs. those lost to the shift. According to the Bill James Handbook 2022, in 2021 there were 4,802 hits taken away by the shift, but 3,946 balls that went through BECAUSE of the Shift.
Originally Posted by Vladimir_Kyrilytch:
Scout VK checking in here with some answers:
Pasquantino: Stud in the making, but hurting his shoulder swinging is a very bad sign.
Pratto: bust in the making. It happens.
Singer: SP2/SP3 in the making
Bubic: Already a bust. Probably couldn't get outs in Japan, or probably Korea
Lynch: See Bubic
Kowar: See Lynch
Massey: more likely than not to be a solid everyday player
Witt Jr.: Not quite the superstar most hoped for, but very good. Adley is far better, but Witt is a legit 30/30 guy. It's just gonna be with a .240 average and a .320 OBP with him.
Melendez: Stud. Could end up better than Pasquantino given he hasn't put himself on the IL by swinging.
Isbel: not gonna happen, unfortunately. Nice speed/power combo on paper but nah.
Cross: too early to tell. No opinion.
Drew Waters: nope
In 2 or 3 years, I am going to link back to this very post as proof that I had my finger absolutely on the pulse of the Royal organization.
BWJ is gonna be a star and will be a top 3 SS in the game. He will get his D under control and will be even better with the bat next year. He will absolutely without a doubt be better than Adley.
Pasquantino will be a perennial all star if the injury bug doesn't get him.
Melendez is gonna be better than Salvy, but won't be a Royal for life.
Pratto is probably a 2 WAR a year player.
Massey is gonna be a GG contender at 2nd and probably Whit lite at the plate.
Drew Waters will be a bottom of the order hitter and will at least not be a negative WAR guy.
Isbel flat out sucks, but will probably be a regular in the lineup for the next few years.
This easily changes if Cal is as bad at his job as we think he is.
Singer will be the ace of the staff high 2 SP
Bubic will be a starter, but back of the rotation. This could change however if he could stopping walking so many people and get the right coach
Lynch/Kowar - with the right coaching both could be backend of the bull pen guys at best, but more than likely both will be average bullpen guys.
The offense is going to be damn good and this team might compete with the right pitching additions and a competent coaching staff. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Vladimir_Kyrilytch:
Have you ever thought about becoming a phd in economics, Duncan? You could write books about how the stock market is volatile and it's hard to decide which stocks will rise and which will fall. Could get you a nobel prize! All you have to do is transfer your baseball wisdom to the realm of economics.
What are you even going on about? What answer were you expecting to see from him?
I wasn't aware that there was anyone in the world with the ability to actively project how a players career will turn out. I also wasn't aware that there is a person that can accurately predict how stocks will fair.
Originally Posted by dlphg9:
What are you even going on about? What answer were you expecting to see from him?
I wasn't aware that there was anyone in the world with the ability to actively project how a players career will turn out. I also wasn't aware that there is a person that can accurately predict how stocks will fair.
You're a dumbass bro
What if I told you there are such people? I'm not saying I'm one of them. But Stanford Wong is and so is Jason Sullivan. Sports are not entirely random. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Vladimir_Kyrilytch:
What if I told you there are such people? I'm not saying I'm one of them. But Stanford Wong is and so is Jason Sullivan. Sports are not entirely random.
Originally Posted by dlphg9:
I'd tell you to prove it.
I'm in the process of doing just that. I wrote down a series of predictions that I intend to use as proof. Who did I leave out? Mazzicato? Too young to tell. [Reply]
