Royals ***Official 2022 Royals Season Repository Thread*** - Page 380

Originally Posted by Why Not?:
WTF is a "pitching coordinator"? Typical CP type answer of "someone who coordinates pitching" has already been considered.

The idea would be they’re someone who works with all the pitching coaches to line up the program and create consistency in coaching and approach at each level.

It’s what Drew Saylor was doing on the hitting side.

I have a hard time believing Simpntacci was actually calling the shots, but if he was he was doing a poor job.

Most new school organizations have that person in a management position over all pitching coaches. More old school ones might have the MLB pitching coach give the marching orders and have the coordinator share those across the organization.

I’m not sure how the Royals have structured it, but they’ve never really found the right approach, in my opinion.
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Originally Posted by dlphg9:
There is a 95% chance Matheny is back next year.

What do you base that on? I have no inside knowledge but I’d guesstimate it’s like 60% he will return. I don’t think losing 94 games is something that just gets glossed over by Sherman. He’s def on the hot seat - look at all the staffing changes we’ve seen this year
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Originally Posted by duncan_idaho:
Depends on what scouting source you’re consuming.

I lean to Baseball Prospectus because it is most in line with the way actual people scouts work.

MLB is much fluffier/positive in general and has a team angle to sell/support.

Basically, the stuff you can get for free tends to be too positive.

I think the key is the sites like MLB never list their actual projection of a guy so people just read into what they want. And most average fans have no idea how to read prospect rankings. They just see "OMG royals #2 prospect! He's #2 and 95th overall so he must have a chance to be an all star!". And in reality the projection there is "average major leaguer at best", but it isn't always explicitly stated like that so people get upset when they don't pan out as an above average player. The average fan needs a no-nonsense approach to rankings. The first 10-15 guys ranked overall project as possible all stars. The next 20-30 as above average guys with a chance to be great. The other 50 are either average to fourth OF type of major leaguers if they are close to the bigs or prospects to keep an eye on in lower levels. Everyone else is a fringe guy at best at the current moment. Massey is a great example of this in action. He was never a top 100 prospect but he had some success recently and suddenly he is part of the royals "core" going forward, because OMG he was rated as the royals third best prospect so he must be good. And here he sits with a 710 OPS so far, which is probably roughly what he projects as. Maybe up to 800 if he really peaks. And yet in two years you will see people say "ugh he's a JAG can't we find anyone else he never lived up to his hype scouts don't know anything", even though so far he's been exactly as advertised and what scouts projected. Scouts are wrong sometimes, that's the nature of the game, but generally what they project is fairly accurate but the fans see what they want to see.
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Originally Posted by Prison Bitch:
What do you base that on? I have no inside knowledge but I’d guesstimate it’s like 60% he will return. I don’t think losing 94 games is something that just gets glossed over by Sherman. He’s def on the hot seat - look at all the staffing changes we’ve seen this year

Because Royals.

Do you think that Sherman is going to force DM to fire Matheny? I think Dayton easily convinces himself to keep Matheny on through the end of his contract and will extend him next year if the team is anywhere near .500.

DM is going to justify keeping the turd because of how well the rookie hitters have looked at times and is gonna get some pitching in the off-season and give Matheny one last shot to put it together.

Unless Sherman forces his hand, which is why I only put it at 95%, then Matheny will start the year as Manager. I don't think it's likely that Sherman will get involved like that and I don't think he's going to can everyone.
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Originally Posted by Why Not?:
WTF is a "pitching coordinator"? Typical CP type answer of "someone who coordinates pitching" has already been considered.

Sort of an assistant pitching coach.

They're also often a sort of 'run prevention assistant' who works with the defense on shifts and catchers on pitch calling, etc...

Tommy Hottovy (Park Hill South grad - go class of '00!!) had a similar gig before he got the Cubs pitching coach assignment.
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Originally Posted by cosmo20002:
Scouts and anyone who writes a lot about prospects. Their writing is always padded with a lot of flowery fluff and padded with bullshit...have to show how knowledgeable they are...and then 1 in 10 of the players they tout ever do shit in the bigs. Our resident expert in this thread does the same thing.

Are you really taking a shot at Duncan?
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Originally Posted by dlphg9:
Because Royals.

Do you think that Sherman is going to force DM to fire Matheny? I think Dayton easily convinces himself to keep Matheny on through the end of his contract and will extend him next year if the team is anywhere near .500.

DM is going to justify keeping the turd because of how well the rookie hitters have looked at times and is gonna get some pitching in the off-season and give Matheny one last shot to put it together.

Unless Sherman forces his hand, which is why I only put it at 95%, then Matheny will start the year as Manager. I don't think it's likely that Sherman will get involved like that and I don't think he's going to can everyone.

You could be right. I have no crystal ball. My sense is 94 losses or whatever isn’t a good spot for a manager to be in when he has his job review this winter. Frankly I think DM is prob as weak as he’s ever been in terms of decision making. And we aren’t really showing any progress to justify a 95% retention odds

Originally Posted by dlphg9:
Are you really taking a shot at Duncan?

I don’t think he was exactly cryptic.
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Originally Posted by dlphg9:
Are you really taking a shot at Duncan?

It is Bitch after all. Not exactly shy of throwing punches at folks with opposing views.
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It was Cosmo actually. Not me.
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Scout VK checking in here with some answers:

Pasquantino: Stud in the making, but hurting his shoulder swinging is a very bad sign.
Pratto: bust in the making. It happens.
Singer: SP2/SP3 in the making
Bubic: Already a bust. Probably couldn't get outs in Japan, or probably Korea
Lynch: See Bubic
Kowar: See Lynch
Massey: more likely than not to be a solid everyday player
Witt Jr.: Not quite the superstar most hoped for, but very good. Adley is far better, but Witt is a legit 30/30 guy. It's just gonna be with a .240 average and a .320 OBP with him.
Melendez: Stud. Could end up better than Pasquantino given he hasn't put himself on the IL by swinging.
Isbel: not gonna happen, unfortunately. Nice speed/power combo on paper but nah.
Cross: too early to tell. No opinion.
Drew Waters: nope

In 2 or 3 years, I am going to link back to this very post as proof that I had my finger absolutely on the pulse of the Royal organization.
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Happy to see the pitch clocks get called up. The minor league games I've been to really seem to move along quite well with them.

The vote among the competition committee was not unanimous. Players voted against the pitch clock and the shift restrictions.

The vote for larger bases was unanimous.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) September 9, 2022

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A fangraphs writer once banned me from his twitch channel about 18 months - 24 months ago cause I kept telling him the shift would be banned, and he said I was so stupid it'll never be banned. What a moment of redemption!
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Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
Sort of an assistant pitching coach.

They're also often a sort of 'run prevention assistant' who works with the defense on shifts and catchers on pitch calling, etc...

Tommy Hottovy (Park Hill South grad - go class of '00!!) had a similar gig before he got the Cubs pitching coach assignment.

Thanks!
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Originally Posted by SithCeNtZ:
I think the key is the sites like MLB never list their actual projection of a guy so people just read into what they want. And most average fans have no idea how to read prospect rankings. They just see "OMG royals #2 prospect! He's #2 and 95th overall so he must have a chance to be an all star!". And in reality the projection there is "average major leaguer at best", but it isn't always explicitly stated like that so people get upset when they don't pan out as an above average player. The average fan needs a no-nonsense approach to rankings. The first 10-15 guys ranked overall project as possible all stars. The next 20-30 as above average guys with a chance to be great. The other 50 are either average to fourth OF type of major leaguers if they are close to the bigs or prospects to keep an eye on in lower levels. Everyone else is a fringe guy at best at the current moment. Massey is a great example of this in action. He was never a top 100 prospect but he had some success recently and suddenly he is part of the royals "core" going forward, because OMG he was rated as the royals third best prospect so he must be good. And here he sits with a 710 OPS so far, which is probably roughly what he projects as. Maybe up to 800 if he really peaks. And yet in two years you will see people say "ugh he's a JAG can't we find anyone else he never lived up to his hype scouts don't know anything", even though so far he's been exactly as advertised and what scouts projected. Scouts are wrong sometimes, that's the nature of the game, but generally what they project is fairly accurate but the fans see what they want to see.

You know, I usually try to mention what their future role is (and Fangraphs is really good about this with its future value projections). But I think I skew towards discussing tools and "best outcomes." In the future, I'll make more of an effort to discuss best outcome/likely outcome/bust outcome, or future value.

As with anything, it's easy to skip over things that are obvious to a scout or someone who pays close attention, but that aren't apparent to a more casual fan.

It's a little more effort, but would add value.

Originally Posted by cosmo20002:
Scouts and anyone who writes a lot about prospects. Their writing is always padded with a lot of flowery fluff and padded with bullshit...have to show how knowledgeable they are...and then 1 in 10 of the players they tout ever do shit in the bigs. Our resident expert in this thread does the same thing.

It's a numbers game, man.

Even if you limit to the top 10 prospects on a teams list, that's 300 prospects. There are 780 roster spots in major league baseball, and the average career lasts about 3 years.

Just by the numbers, the competition for spots is going to be very intense. Development is not linear. You can talk about tools, you can talk about make-up. But the edge between success and failure is so fine and so varied lots of guys are going to surprise negatively or positively.
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Originally Posted by duncan_idaho:
You know, I usually try to mention what their future role is (and Fangraphs is really good about this with its future value projections). But I think I skew towards discussing tools and "best outcomes." In the future, I'll make more of an effort to discuss best outcome/likely outcome/bust outcome, or future value.

As with anything, it's easy to skip over things that are obvious to a scout or someone who pays close attention, but that aren't apparent to a more casual fan.

It's a little more effort, but would add value.

It's a numbers game, man.

Even if you limit to the top 10 prospects on a teams list, that's 300 prospects. There are 780 roster spots in major league baseball, and the average career lasts about 3 years.

Just by the numbers, the competition for spots is going to be very intense. Development is not linear. You can talk about tools, you can talk about make-up. But the edge between success and failure is so fine and so varied lots of guys are going to surprise negatively or positively.

So I'm to understand you're the most insightful baseball guy on this website, and perhaps you are, but...."the future is hard to predict" hardly qualifies as amazing analysis. I'll keep an eye out for more substantive posts you might make in the future.
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