Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
Originally Posted by PAChiefsGuy:
So basically let me get this straight because I don't want to misunderstand your posts. You think nothing should be shut down and society should go about their business as usual because this virus doesn't affect most people? Correct?
Apparently this report influenced the current course of action by the Feds. Seems to me this is wildly extreme but what do I know.
Originally Posted by :
A study by UK epidemiologists predicts that attempts to slow, or mitigate -- rather than actively halt, or suppress -- the novel coronavirus could overwhelm the number of intensive care hospital beds and lead to about 250,000 deaths in the UK and more than a million in the United States during the course of the current pandemic.
The study, which has not been published in a peer-reviewed journal, was released on Monday by London's Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team, which says it is advising the UK government on its response strategy. The study says it used modeling that has informed the approach of the British government in recent weeks; on Monday, the government abruptly called on vulnerable and elderly Britons to isolate themselves for 12 weeks, and introduced a variety of social distancing and quarantine recommendations that days earlier seemed distant prospects.
"The major challenge of suppression is that this type of intensive intervention package -- or something equivalently effective at reducing transmission -- will need to be maintained until a vaccine becomes available (potentially 18 months or more) -- given that we predict that transmission will quickly rebound if interventions are relaxed."
Originally Posted by Lprechaun:
Had to shut down three jobs today and the wifes company will be limiting hours or closing down completely for minimum 6 weeks.
Should be fun
Originally Posted by dirk digler:
Apparently this report influenced the current course of action by the Feds. Seems to me this is wildly extreme but what do I know.
Originally Posted by :
"The major challenge of suppression is that this type of intensive intervention package -- or something equivalently effective at reducing transmission -- will need to be maintained until a vaccine becomes available (potentially 18 months or more) -- given that we predict that transmission will quickly rebound if interventions are relaxed."
That's EXACTLY the problem. If your answer is 'stop the spread' then you're saying that we shut everything down until there's a vaccine. Because under that plan, there's no acquired immunity. So the moment you start the country back up, you're right back where you were on 3/1/20. The 'flatten the curve' movement is just thrown right at the window at that point.
It's exactly the "dig a trench and wait for air support" scenario that I believe is simply not viable. If the government tries to put the brakes on the nation for 12 months, there will be no government left to re-start. You'll have a genuine descent into anarchy.
With additional evidence suggesting a seasonal nature, you need to slow-play this into the warmer weather where transmission rates will be naturally slowed and the curve will flatten naturally. Trying to simply hold the water back as long as possible is just as likely to end in a scenario where the dam finally breaks in October and the outbreak re-starts at the beginning of the cold/flu season. Which would be truly catastrophic. Use where we are on the calendar to our advantage.
That being said, I think it's risky to try to use the UK to extrapolate results given their relatively small landmass and thus the increase probability of a true nationwide outbreak. Our major advantage in this remains geography. If we don't lean on that advantage (and every other advantage at our disposal), we're making a massive mistake. [Reply]
As I've mentioned before, I live in a very rural county. We haven't had any confirmed cases of C19 and had been largely untouched by the panic buying. I stopped into Wal-Mart last Thursday on the way home from work and the store looked normal, even in the paper products aisle.
Then, on Friday, the Gov announced the schools will be closed for six weeks and then later announced bars and restaurants would be closed and the entire county must have freaked the **** out because by Monday morning, the stores were empty of meat, canned goods and TP. One of the stores was even saying their warehouses were out of paper products and it could be three months before they are restocked.
I stopped at WalMart this morning and they must have gotten a pallet of TP in. Two employees were standing next to the pallet and automatically asking anyone walking down the aisle asking "12 pack or 18 pack" and doling it out. There was also a pallet of 1 ply Scotch TP that was largely untouched. Even hoarders won't touch that shit. :-)
So surreal.
You can tell we are in a rural county because after the Gov announced the restaurant and bar shutdown, our county Sherriff publicly announced that he wasn't enforcing it and several businesses have chosen to do business as normal. Most are only doing walk-in/take out and delivery, though. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
That's EXACTLY the problem. If your answer is 'stop the spread' then you're saying that we shut everything down until there's a vaccine. Because under that plan, there's no acquired immunity. So the moment you start the country back up, you're right back where you were on 3/1/20. The 'flatten the curve' movement is just thrown right at the window at that point.
It's exactly the "dig a trench and wait for air support" scenario that I believe is simply not viable. If the government tries to put the brakes on the nation for 12 months, there will be no government left to re-start. You'll have a genuine descent into anarchy.
With additional evidence suggesting a seasonal nature, you need to slow-play this into the warmer weather where transmission rates will be naturally slowed and the curve will flatten naturally. Trying to simply hold the water back as long as possible is just as likely to end in a scenario where the dam finally breaks in October and the outbreak re-starts at the beginning of the cold/flu season. Which would be truly catastrophic. Use where we are on the calendar to our advantage.
That being said, I think it's risky to try to use the UK to extrapolate results given their relatively small landmass and thus the increase probability of a true nationwide outbreak. Our major advantage in this remains geography. If we don't lean on that advantage (and every other advantage at our disposal), we're making a massive mistake.
Yeah I tend to agree. No way this country or any country can shut down for 12-18 months. We are lucky to live in the US where we are not near as densely populated as Asia or Europe except for a couple exceptions like NY\Chicago. Most of us don't live on top of each other and don't use mass transit.
I am hoping as well that warmer temps\humidity will slow this thing down alot. [Reply]
Originally Posted by dirk digler:
Apparently this report influenced the current course of action by the Feds. Seems to me this is wildly extreme but what do I know.
It's been clear from the beginning that a million or more deaths in the US are in play if we did nothing (.5% deadly * 40-70% infected). I threw out 350k at the beginning of this thread and got laughed at.
Even if the unknowable *true* death rate is .1% - that's still 161k people in the US at 50% infected, which would overload the ICU beds/ventilators if it happens in a short period of time. Not everyone dies - so multiply that 161k by a factor of several to get the total people needing intensive care. Once you overload the hospitals the death rate goes up dramatically. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
What exactly do you have to take umbrage with here?
I mean, apart from you ignoring the repeated instances of me saying "people should not pretend like this isn't here and try to carry on with their everyday lives..." what 'whole story' have I not spoken to? And apart from the fact that you HAVE advocated for martial law, 'indirectly' as you have conceded, what frustrations do you have with being 'accused' of it?
You HAVE advocated for martial law. I HAVE spoken directly to the folly of 'business as usual'. Neither of these facts are even remotely in dispute.
So what precisely are you bitching about?
I am not here to analyze your posts like I'm a Professor grading a college thesis. If I miss something don't cry about it.
I didnt read your post that closely.. That's why I asked that question in my post because it didn't make any sense to me. You wanted to get smart in your response back so I did the same to you.
Also, I'm not bitching about anything. I'm fine w how our President and now many Governors have chosen to respond to this pandemic. You are the one who is obviously not satisfied and crying about it. [Reply]
Originally Posted by PAChiefsGuy:
I didnt read your post that closely.. That's why I asked that question in my post because it didn't make any sense to me. You wanted to get smart in your response back so I did the same to you.
Im not here to analyze your posts like I'm a Professor grading a college thesis. If I miss something don't cry about it.
Also, I'm not bitching about anything. I'm fine w how our President and now many Governors have chosen to respond to this pandemic. You are the one who is obviously not satisfied and crying about it.
That's you 'getting smart"? Lord, you suck at this.
So I say something as it relates to you that is completely accurate, your response is to say something regarding my position that...isn't.
And I'm the one crying about it? Ah....got it.
By the way, you almost made it through a post without wildly misrepresenting my position. I mean...you didn't, but you almost did. So that's progress.
Like I said - if you're going to try to speak directly to something I'm saying, at least read what I'm actually saying. Or don't weigh in. It's really not that hard. [Reply]
