Yes 55 47.41%

No 61 52.59%

Well, I’d rather blow picks and move up to draft a tackle, then use the money we save and get a really good pass rusher like Ngakoue
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Agree with this completely.
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Sure. I have no desire for a job like Veach's but hey, what is CP for?

If I was V, I would be terrified of locking up a huge contract in Brown and having that blow up and be a huge anchor.

Given he played a year on the tag and got another pro bowl, a team friendly desk seems unlikely...

So it's probably pay the man what he wants and hopes he continues to improve or at least doesn't put weight back on...

Or look for a new LT.
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That's easy to say in theory.

But Cross, Ekwonu and Neal all fucking sucked this year and each one of them were top 10 picks. And frankly, Ngakoue sucked for giant chunks of the season as well - he was extremely all or nothing.

'blowing picks to move up' is very likely - more likely than not, in fact - to yield a worse OT situation AND less draft capital to address key areas on the roster.

And starting LT is not DE or WR or CB or anything else on this roster. It's the one position apart from QB where you absolutely cannot have a pile of shit rookie trying to find his footing and play his way into shape.

If we draft a LT who's rookie development arc tracks along the same lines as Karlaftis's did, that would be a hugely successful 1st round OT - it would also have our QB running for his life for the first 60% of the season. And when that's the case at DE, you deal with the growing pains. When it's the case at OT, your season could end up over before it truly begins.

I just don't think you gamble at LT.
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Based on?

Because he's been in the league for 5 years now and at no point in his NFL career has he been anything but a credible, starting caliber offensive tackle.

The odds of that deal 'blowing up' to create an anchor are orders of magnitude lower than a draft pick imploding, even if you were to somehow trade into the top 10.

The risk you're taking in signing OBJ isn't that he'll become some boat anchor on the roster. That's really not likely at all. The risk you're taking on is that he's never more than a credible LT and you've paid 20% too much for 20% too long.

Sure, that's a risk - but is it THAT much of one? And are the consequences of it truly that dire?

Because the risks with a rookie LT are substantially higher both in terms of the odds in question and the consequences of same.
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Say it louder for the dipshits in the back.
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I think this is a gross overstatement, so I just want to say a couple of things here related to the general view of a rookie tackle and this fear of the unknown.

For starters, you do expect some lumps with rookies but the theory is that they will improve significantly and especially in years 2 and 3.

David Baktiari gave up 7+ sacks in each of his first two seasons. Tunsil gave up 6 in his 2nd season. Trent Williams gave up 11.5 in his first season, not to mention 9.5 in his 4th year and 6 in his 5th. Mailata gave up 6.5, 4, and 6.5 again this year. The moral of the story is that even those seen as the best in the business had their early lumps.

As for the individual players...

Ekwonu was absolutely bad the first two weeks of the season (3 sacks) but he was really good the remainder sans some penalty issues. He finished the year giving up only 3 more sacks and had only 2 more sacks on the year than Orlando. I thought Ekwonu looked great down the stretch and I think he's going to be really good.

Cross also gave up 2 more sacks than Orlando and also showed growth in the season. He showed he has what it takes to mirror pass rushers. He needs to work on strength and some depth but I think he's going to be a really good LT in the coming seasons.

Both of these guys look like they will surpass OBj in their 2nd year. And that's the key. These guys weren't much worse in sacks given up than a 5-year veteran that is a "Pro Bowler." To say that they blew chunks is misleading.

As for Neal, I wasn't too keen on him. He struggled with pressure and sacks and didn't look great for most of the season. I struggle with supporting taking a guy to be a RT at 7th overall. I also don't particularly love tackles to be nearly 6'8" and 370 pounds. I think 6'5" to 6'6" is what you want and about 315-320. I'm not sure Neal will ever be much more than serviceable. He reminds me of that monster the Vikings had back in the day, Phil Loadholt. Anyhow, I'd give you he didn't look as good as you'd like.

As for the rest, I think you give OBj far more credit than he deserves. If it weren't for Pat having outstanding awareness and mobility to go with his ability to make otherworldly throws off-platform, both OBj and Wylie would have given up far more sacks than they did. Imagine if this offense was running with a guy like Kirk Cousins or Tom Brady? They'd get killed. OBj probably should have had 10 sacks allowed this year and Wylie more than that. Instead, they gave up 4 and 7 despite being the NFL's worst in pressures allowed (supposedly, I dunno it's a stat that isn't really tracked).

Could I live with a rookie that gives up 6 sacks in this offense? Yes. Do I believe that Charles Cross or Ikem Ekwonu would have actually given up that many with Mahomes as QB? Probably not.
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Okay but again, Cross and Ekwonu went in the top 10. I agree that Ekwonu showed promise down the stretch but damn - I hope so. He was the first OT taken. These are ELITE prospects and the best you can say about them is "well, I think they'll be better than OBJ in a year or two".

I suspect one of them will be. Both? History says that's not the case.

So IMO you're looking at a 1 in 3 chance that your top 10 OTs are better than OBJ in the long run. THAT'S what you want to give up 2 1st round picks for? And probably an additional 2nd or 3rd?

And you think I'm giving OBJ more credit than he deserves - from my chair you're engaging in a LOT of contortions to make Cross and Ekwonu appear to have better seasons than they did, Cross in particular. I mean you talk about the sacks that Mahomes saved for OBJ without mentioning that the offense is EXTREMELY difficult for OTs. Put OBJ in that offense that Cross runs and I have little doubt that he'd have a much easier time in it. And for as rough as Cross looked at times this year, he'd have gotten MURDERED trying to do what OBJ was doing here.

We don't have to 'imagine' the team running an offense with Brady or Cousins - we just witnessed it. And when Brown had a more 'conventional' quarterback to protect, he did a really nice job of it. Mahomes, because of his style of play, takes as much as he gives for his tackles.

Now that's a far cry from some schlub like Watson who gets his tackles killed because he doesn't have an internal clock to speak of, but Mahomes does take things off the table for his OTs at times. And also, don't underestimate the impact of Wylie, even as it relates to OBJ. Because when Wylie sucks, it means that you're shifting protections to that side more often than not. Cross was getting significantly better performance from Lucas than OBJ was getting from Wylie.

I would LOVE to end up with someone like Braxton Jones, Braden Smith or Jordan Mailata at OT - nothing would benefit this team more than a low cost, high ROI offensive tackle. But this idea that there's some 'trade up!' panacea here is similar to the conversations around Alex Smith for years.

In Smith we had a solid veteran and we kept our powder dry until the right situation came up. All the while, many (myself included) were screaming to take a QB in the 1st every single year because that would solve everything. And then as the bodies of JAGs like Bortles, Bridgewater, Carr, Mariota, Wentz and Lynch were strewn about the countryside, Reid stuck with a reliable veteran who could keep things level until he found HIS guy.

In the end, I don't think Reid went into that draft looking to take ANY quarterback, as so many of the people in this thread are looking to do at OT. He went into that draft looking for Patrick Mahomes. And if in this draft he finds the OT version of Patrick Mahomes - that's fine.

But it took him 5 years to find PM. There's an excellent chance that he doesn't see that difference maker at OT this year.

And I think many people need to accept that fact rather than say "Hey, there are 3-5 OTs I'd be happy to replace Brown with in this draft..." Because that's just nutty. If that's how someone is entering this draft, they're ignoring all the risks and simultaneously disregarding the above average performance that Brown has provided in favor of a narrative they crafted for themselves months ago.
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I'm not going to quote everything you said because there's some truths in there but I'm going to comment on this:

What part of Brown's performance this season was "above average?"

I'm seriously asking. We witnessed the pressure he's given up with our own eyes. We don't need PFF to tell us he gave up more pressure than any other LT in the NFL. It's glaringly obvious. If you think that's "above average," then I have a problem with every single bit of it.

Just because Brown had a handful of good snaps with Henne in the game doesn't mean that would have been the case for an entire game or an entire season. I think we can simply say it wouldn't have been the case. The pressure he gave up this year absolutely would have ended in more sacks on Henne than we have seen on Mahomes. There's zero chance it wouldn't have. I'm tired of watching it. We're 100% lucky that Mahomes hasn't suffered a serious injury yet with as bad as the tackles have been and that's 100% on Mahomes' ability to recognize and escape that pressure.

There absolutely are a few tackles I'd happily replace Brown with in this draft. Yes, two of them will require that the Chiefs trade up relatively high to get them. I've outlined in one of the draft threads where I think the tackles are going to start falling fast and that's in the 11-16 range.

You don't have to jump to 10 and get the absolute guy. You can grade multiple players similarly and be happy to see which one falls to say, 15 and then go up and get one. It's like McDuffie last year. He was in the top 3 graded CBs. The Chiefs weren't going to go up and get one in the top 10, but when one fell to the right area to attack it they did. Maybe the Titans take Paris Johnson and the Patriots take Peter Skoronski. The Chiefs might also really like Broderick Jones and move in front of the Steelers to get him because there's a drop-off to the next few tackles. It isn't going to break the bank to go to 15 and grab him.

What's more, is that you only spent draft capital. You just saved 25+ million per year that you can spend on your defensive line, for instance.

I'm not scared to replace OBj with a rookie because I see a terrible fit for this offense and bad performance. I don't think the returns will be significantly different and the rookie will get better.
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I'm not going to quote everything you said because there's some truths in there but I'm going to comment on this:

What part of Brown's performance this season was "above average?"

I'm seriously asking. We witnessed the pressure he's given up with our own eyes. We don't need PFF to tell us he gave up more pressure than any other LT in the NFL. It's glaringly obvious. If you think that's "above average," then I have a problem with every single bit of it.

Just because Brown had a handful of good snaps with Henne in the game doesn't mean that would have been the case for an entire game or an entire season. I think we can simply say it wouldn't have been the case. The pressure he gave up this year absolutely would have ended in more sacks on Henne than we have seen on Mahomes. There's zero chance it wouldn't have. I'm tired of watching it. We're 100% lucky that Mahomes hasn't suffered a serious injury yet with as bad as the tackles have been and that's 100% on Mahomes' ability to recognize and escape that pressure.

There absolutely are a few tackles I'd happily replace Brown with in this draft. Yes, two of them will require that the Chiefs trade up relatively high to get them. I've outlined in one of the draft threads where I think the tackles are going to start falling fast and that's in the 11-16 range.

You don't have to jump to 10 and get the absolute guy. You can grade multiple players similarly and be happy to see which one falls to say, 15 and then go up and get one. It's like McDuffie last year. He was in the top 3 graded CBs. The Chiefs weren't going to go up and get one in the top 10, but when one fell to the right area to attack it they did. Maybe the Titans take Paris Johnson and the Patriots take Peter Skoronski. The Chiefs might also really like Broderick Jones and move in front of the Steelers to get him because there's a drop-off to the next few tackles. It isn't going to break the bank to go to 15 and grab him.

What's more, is that you only spent draft capital. You just saved 25+ million per year that you can spend on your defensive line, for instance.

I'm not scared to replace OBj with a rookie because I see a terrible fit for this offense and bad performance. I don't think the returns will be significantly different and the rookie will get better.
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There aren't any guarantees in the NFL.

But I guess I haven't been impressed with Brown's attitude.

His first year at KC was a contract year and everyone knew speed rushers was his biggest weakness.

It probably didn't take a football genius to think speed rushers were going to be more aggressive when they weren't going against Lamar and KC isn't a run first team.

So why did he wait until his second year to drop his weight down?

Why did he wait so long to hire an agent?

Turning down the first contract and playing on the tag is already a bad start. Is it a deal breaker, to a long term deal, no. But not a good start that the two sides will come to terms.

I get a lot of players overvalue their worth, but I just get bad vibes after he locks up his first big payday.

If that is with the Chiefs, I hope he proves me wrong.

But I'm far from convinced that KC will agree to meet his demands anyway, because I doubt Brown is going to come down from his demands when some other team will probably pay him top dollar.

Will be interesting to find out.
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Do we think we can get a 2nd for OBJ?
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Probably top end of the scale. I could see a team like the Bears MAYBE being interested in him, which would put you at #32 or #64 in return, if player for pick is the swap.

How he plays tomorrow against the Bengals will be telling. If he steps up and keeps Mahomes clean while the Chiefs win, and the Chiefs end up winning the SB, I think KC is more likely to commit to him.

If he gets whipped consistently and Hendrickson is a real problem all day long and wrecks the game by himself... think that's out the window.
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If Brown plays well enough to increase or maintain his trade value, then I think the Chiefs keep him.

If he sucks, then his trade value decreases too.

Kind of a tough situation here. I guess we hope he plays well and takes a reasonable deal. Or maybe that he dominates and someone trades too much for him.
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I agree that how he plays tomorrow will be huge in his future here but ultimately I think this comes down to him or Jones. I just don't see how we pay both of them, Mahomes and kelce along with all the other players. Graded equally as positions you take the LT obviously, but Jones has been the far superior player.

Even if you wanna say he hasn't gotten it done in the postseason, you'd still have to admit that he's almost irreplaceable during the regular season with the amount of attention he draws, making things infinitely easier for George and Clark. To say nothing that he might've taken the mantle from Aaron Donald as the best DT in the league. He, unlike OBJ has shown a willingness for flexibility as it relates to contracts as well. That kind of loyalty needs to be rewarded.
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Da Bears traded #32 to Pittsburgh for Claypool.

As for Orlando, what we'll probably see is something somewhere in the middle of what you have here which makes it the continuing conundrum it's been.

Hendrickson isn't a super speed guy and neither is Hubbard, which helps but both ends are still good enough to just flat-out win against our tackles too. I'm hoping both tackles have outstanding days and continually win their matchups. That won't change my opinion on whether or not either should be here next year but I want most for KC to absolutely destroy Cincy.
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