Originally Posted by B_Ambuehl:
You'll shouldn't worry too much about San Diego in this one. They're missing 2 of their best offensive & defensive weapons. JC Jackson isn't gonna play. They'll probably put 2 or 3 more players on IR just driving to the stadium. Even then it's just too much to ask going into arrowhead on a short week, especially in week 2. Chargers starters didn't play at all in preseason so will still be beat to hell from week 1. Plus they are still developing chemistry from not playing. Their Oline looked like dogshit in week 1 they couldn't run block or pass block. Herbert didn't get sacked but was pressured on nearly every snap. Joe Lombardi is also not a good play caller. He runs the Sean Payton Saints offense, but he's got a guy with one of the top 3 arms in the NFL whose strength is throwing accurate lasers 65 yds down field. But he decides he wants to run the ball & have Herbert play 5 yd dink & dunk ball like 40 yr old Drew Brees. Once every 4 or 5 games they decide to utilize Mike Williams down field a bit but he's usually not involved much.
J.C. Jackson is gonna play. Its confirmed now. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Shiver Me Timbers:
If the Chiefs come out with 1/2 the focus they did in AZ they will win by double digits. I think that was the most in sync first game I have ever seen out of the Chiefs and a road game no less
Chiefs 39 Chargers 10
It's that reversion to the mean that worries me... [Reply]
Money shifted hard on the point spread...which is excellent news for KC. It's essentially a wash...so KC is free to score at will without eclipsing the 54 total points.
The game, from a sporting perspective, just got a lot more interesting...
One of two thing have to happen or both for Vegas to make money/break even....total score under 54 or Chargers win. [Reply]
Originally Posted by BlackOp:
Money shifted hard on the point spread...which is excellent news for KC. It's essentially a wash...so KC is free to score at will without eclipsing the 54 total points.
The game, from a sporting perspective, just got a lot more interesting...
One of two thing have to happen or both for Vegas to make money/break even....total score under 54 or Chargers win.
Originally Posted by BlackOp:
Here is the where the money is at...12 pm gameday. Spread went up to 4.5 from 4 last night.
96% on the game being over 54 points, 77% on KC winning by more than 4.5. The BIG factor is % of money bet...which say 96% of all dollars is on KC.
This is interesting as 44% of the point spread is on LA but only 23% of the money.
Money is what's ultimately important...not percentages.
From a strictly casino vantage, the most points the Chiefs can score by while still maintaining both the 96% o/u and 77% spread is 28...while the Chargers scoring 24. Anything under that 28 gets the job done for Vegas as long as there is not more than 4 points between the team.
Chargers can score as much as they want in a win...as long as the total points dont exceed 53
Looking at the data...the odds of a low scoring game are extremely high. 96% of the money is insane...Vegas will lose it's ass if KC blows them up.
This has potential funny business written all over it...when the outcome HAS to go a certain way and work within narrow parameters. It's completely lopsided.
28-24 is the perfect score for Vegas...if KC wins.
Originally Posted by BWillie:
I cannot believe you fail to see the fault in this logic.
Lol, okay.
Except that the top 5 HCs in NFL history straight up laugh at metrics, and the 'top' metrics HCs are a punchline in the NFL.
By the way, Brandon Staley says hi. Again. So much for metrics, buddy.
thanks, but no thanks. I'll hang with the coaches that might be metrics stupid, but jeez, i don't know, they keep winning games. Like over and over, for decades at a time. Well, gosh, maybe they know something the bean-counters don't?:-) [Reply]
Originally Posted by BlackOp:
Here is the where the money is at...12 pm gameday. Spread went up to 4.5 from 4 last night.
96% on the game being over 54 points, 77% on KC winning by more than 4.5. The BIG factor is % of money bet...which say 96% of all dollars is on KC.
This is interesting as 44% of the point spread is on LA but only 23% of the money.
Money is what's ultimately important...not percentages.
From a strictly casino vantage, the most points the Chiefs can score by while still maintaining both the 96% o/u and 77% spread is 28...while the Chargers scoring 24. Anything under that 28 gets the job done for Vegas as long as there is not more than 4 points between the team.
Chargers can score as much as they want in a win...as long as the total points dont exceed 53
Looking at the data...the odds of a low scoring game are extremely high. 96% of the money is insane...Vegas will lose it's ass if KC blows them up.
This has potential funny business written all over it...when the outcome HAS to go a certain way and work within narrow parameters. It's completely lopsided.
28-24 is the perfect score for Vegas...if KC wins.
Things like this have been happening way to consistently for it to be a coincidence. You nailed the score. Vegas always wins. [Reply]
Everyone needs to understand where the Chargers are in their development vs where the Chiefs are.
The Chargers are where the Chiefs were in 2018 with the added bonus of having a Chiefs 2013 type holdovers from the previous draft cycle. Derwin is just a fantastic player. Bosa is a great player at DE. Adderley, Samuel etc.
They've drafted well, plus they have a legit QB on a rookie deal. So they could go get JC Jackson, sign Mike Williams, trade for Mack etc. Basically, the Chiefs 2018. [Reply]
