1. Brock Porter, RHP, St. Mary’s Prep (Orchard Lake, Mich.)
Porter has emerged as one of the top high school right-handers in this class, and right now is the best bet to be the first arm taken from anywhere in the class. He’s been up to 97 this spring with good arm-side run on the pitch, while both his curveball and changeup project as at least above-average offerings when he starts using them more. He offers a ton of projection on his 6-4 frame, with a long stride toward the plate and good extension over his front side. He’s also committed to Clemson, but he’s pitched well enough this spring that he should go high enough to sign.
2. Jake Madden, RHP, Northwest Florida State
Madden is a super projectable 6-6 right-hander who was originally headed to South Carolina out of high school in 2020, but decommitted to attend Northwest Florida State, where he redshirted for a year and made his debut this past spring. Now committed to Alabama, Madden has been 92-97, working mostly off the fastball but with potential with both his changeup and slider, the former more so than the latter. His arm swing is long but he gets there on time and with a consistent slot just below 3/4. He battled blisters this past spring which probably impacted his command, and he walked 11 percent of batters he faced this spring. It’s No. 2 starter upside with a fair amount of risk, with pure stuff and projection in his favor but the lack of track record and his high walk rates against.
3. Jonathan Cannon, RHP, Georgia
Cannon added a cutter this year and has been throwing harder, both from regaining arm strength he lost after a bout with mono in 2021 and from shifting from throwing more two-seamers to throwing more four-seamers, and through late April it looked like he might get into the first round. He stumbled down the stretch, giving up four or more runs in each of his last five outings, 26 earned runs in 26 innings in that span, including a brutal outing against VCU in the regionals, so scouts’ final looks at him were nowhere near as good. Cannon is up to 97-98 and sits 93-95, but hitters have never missed his fastball like you’d expect, and his slider is fringy, leaving him with just the cutter as a potential out pitch. It’s more a 55 now than a 60 or better, short and hard but, again, not missing as many bats as it should. He’s 6-6 but his slot is a bit below 3/4, and hitters see the ball for almost his entire delivery, so he’s not getting any deception to help his stuff play up. He does throw a ton of strikes and has the size and frame teams like in future starters, but for him to get to be even a No. 4 he’ll need to miss more bats, and getting there probably means altering his delivery to get him more deception or more life on the fastball.
4. Sonny DiChiara, 1B, Auburn
Sonny D is a large senior slugger for Auburn, a transfer from Samford who has hit 20 homers with more walks than strikeouts for the Tigers, even hitting well in-conference. He clobbers fastballs, can tell a ball from a strike, and doesn’t chase out of the zone very often. He’s also a DH in waiting, given his girth, and hasn’t shown that he can hit decent breaking stuff. He demolished left-handed pitching this year, but if a right-hander can land a breaking ball in or near the zone, DiChiara has trouble with it. He’s going to turn 23 in August, which will kill him in many teams’ draft models, but a team willing to take a chance on the power/OBP skills will get a great senior sign here.
5. Trey Dombroski, LHP, Monmouth
In a year without premium college arms – at least, not healthy ones – the guys who lack huge stuff but can really pitch are getting a boost. Dombroski has elite control, with 70 percent of his pitches going for strikes, and he does it with all four pitches. He’ll touch 93 mph but works more at 88-91, leaning heavily on his slider to keep hitters from squaring up the fastball, with both the slider and curveball missing enough bats to grade out as 55s. He has a changeup that he barely uses, with a lot of action that probably would make it less effective if he threw it too much. There isn’t a ton of deception in his delivery, which is low-effort and has him very online toward the plate, with everything coming from a consistent 3/4-low slot. Dombroski walked 14 batters in 15 starts this year, and his career walk rate for Monmouth is just 3.7 percent, after he walked 2 batters in 31 innings on the Cape last year (1.6 percent). He did give up 10 homers this past season in 95 innings, after allowing none in his first two seasons for the Hawks, which is always a concern for a pitcher whose fastball is light. If he doesn’t lose any further stuff moving to five-day rotations in pro ball, or even gains a little with pro coaching, he has third/fourth-starter potential, but the downside is he becomes so homer-prone he doesn’t have a role in the majors.
6. Bradley Loftin, LHP, DeSoto Central High (Miss.)
Loftin is expected to be a tough sign due to his commitment to Mississippi State, but some team with extra money might try to coax him into pro ball instead. He’s an excellent athlete with a loose arm, up to 94 mph already with a plus changeup, and he just started throwing a breaking ball this year, showing enough feel to spin the ball to give him a three-pitch starter projection. The changeup has great arm speed and some tailing fade to it, giving him a solid base while he works to add velocity and develop the curveball. He’s a projection guy and not likely to move fast in pro ball, but worth an overpay with someone’s second or third pick.
7. Jared Jones, C, Walton High (Marietta, Ga.)
Jones has a great right-handed swing with plus power, and if someone believes he can stay behind the plate, he could go in the top 40 picks. He’s very big for the position, though, at 6-5, 235 pounds – very few big league catchers that tall have been able to stay healthy and productive – and he’ll turn 19 on Aug. 1, which hurts him with teams that weigh age in their models. The LSU commit has a good swing with strong hands and great hip rotation, but his recognition of offspeed stuff lags behind, so there’s a fair question of whether he’ll get to the power right away. The power/position combination gives him huge upside for a team that’s very patient.
8. Ike Irish, C, St. Mary’s Prep (Orchard Lake, Mich.)
Irish takes the Juan Soto two-strike approach to ridiculous lengths, with a stance so wide it puts his pant seams at risk, but his main selling point is his defense, as he has a plus arm and shows both agility and feel behind the plate. He’s a left-handed hitter, a novelty among catchers, and has plus bat speed, while his hands work well. He’s not consistent when he loads, and between that and the restriction from his wide stance, he’s had some trouble with velocity that just doesn’t line up with the bat speed. He doesn’t have to hit a ton to be a regular given his glovework, but more consistent mechanics, and perhaps a more reasonable stance, might give the Auburn commit more upside.
9. Henry Williams, RHP, Duke
Williams was 88-93 mph as a starter last year with two above-average secondaries in the slider and changeup. And at 6-foot-5, 200 pounds, he offers some physical projection as well, but his elbow went and he had Tommy John surgery in the offseason. He only threw 37 innings in 2021 due to elbow and forearm issues, so scouts have limited looks at him, and if someone wants to buy him out of his last two years of eligibility, they’ll do so with no scouting reports sine last spring. Prior to the surgery, he was 89-92 mph with a nasty low-80s, downward-breaking slider, and a changeup that’s a strong 55 when he doesn’t overthrow it. His feel for the secondary stuff wasn’t great, though, and he had problems with the consistency of both pitches (in command, shape, even keeping his changeup velocity down), the sort of thing that might get better with experience that Williams doesn’t have. He’s still projectable and there’s the hope that his elbow and forearm injuries will all be behind him now that he’s got a fresh UCL, which would give him mid-rotation potential. He’s not as polished as some of the other Tommy John pitchers in the class, however.
10. Brandon Sproat, RHP, Florida
Sproat was a top 100 prospect in 2019, but slipped to the Rangers in the seventh round that year, turning down their over-slot offers to go to the University of Florida, where he’s bounced in and out of the rotation and posted a 6.65 ERA as a sophomore last year. He made 16 starts for the Gators this year, finishing very strong, including two excellent starts in the tournament where he punched out 13 batters with just three walks and two runs allowed in 15.1 innings. He’s 94-98 mph as a starter, touching 100 mph, working with four pitches, led by an upper-80s changeup with some late tailing action that is effective against left- and right-handed batters. He takes a huge step toward the plate that generates great arm speed, and his release point is consistent enough, so whatever is keeping him from average command, it’s not something obvious in the delivery. It’s never been a question of stuff with Sproat, however, but of command and control; he has the arsenal of a top-20 pick, but his track record and history of throwing strikes don’t support that.