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Nzoner's Game Room>***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***
JakeF 10:28 PM 02-26-2020
A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

[Reply]
Donger 09:11 AM 05-19-2020
Are there meat packing plants in Ford and Finney counties in Kansas?
[Reply]
DaFace 09:13 AM 05-19-2020
Originally Posted by TLO:
IHME updated again.

I don't see a lot of noticeable changes except it went off the rails in Arizona.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/unite...merica/arizona
Yeah, that's pretty wonky. It's hard to imagine that Arizona would see 10x as many deaths in the next 3 months as we have in the past 3. If things started looking bad, you have to imagine they'd start restricting things again. But those kinds of "dance" decisions aren't included in the model I suppose.
[Reply]
dirk digler 09:14 AM 05-19-2020
Originally Posted by PAChiefsGuy:
The worst is over which is great.

I hope so but part of me is thinking are we going to repeat the 1918 pandemic. Fall was by far the worst period when that occurred.
[Reply]
dirk digler 09:15 AM 05-19-2020
Originally Posted by TLO:
IHME updated again.

I don't see a lot of noticeable changes except it went off the rails in Arizona.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/unite...merica/arizona

If you want to look at a good model use this one. They have been pretty much spot on the whole time


https://covid19-projections.com/#view-projections
[Reply]
BleedingRed 09:15 AM 05-19-2020
Originally Posted by DaFace:
Yeah, that's pretty wonky. It's hard to imagine that Arizona would see 10x as many deaths in the next 3 months as we have in the past 3. If things started looking bad, you have to imagine they'd start restricting things again. But those kinds of "dance" decisions aren't included in the model I suppose.
I mean honestly I look at it, and all I see is we are extending this thing further and further out.

Get it over with already.
[Reply]
PAChiefsGuy 09:16 AM 05-19-2020
Originally Posted by dirk digler:
I hope so but part of me is thinking are we going to repeat the 1918 pandemic. Fall was by far the worst period when that occurred.
I think it all depends on how disciplined we are. If we follow the guidelines I think we'll be okay. If we don't then who knows...
[Reply]
Mecca 09:17 AM 05-19-2020
Originally Posted by DaFace:
Yeah, that's pretty wonky. It's hard to imagine that Arizona would see 10x as many deaths in the next 3 months as we have in the past 3. If things started looking bad, you have to imagine they'd start restricting things again. But those kinds of "dance" decisions aren't included in the model I suppose.
I read a story about 2 hours ago that Arizona has been trying extremely hard to not having their nursing home data reported because it would make their numbers look bad so I have no idea if that plays in.
[Reply]
dirk digler 09:19 AM 05-19-2020
Originally Posted by PAChiefsGuy:
I think it all depends on how disciplined we are. If we follow the guidelines I think we'll be okay. If we don't then who knows...

Then we are screwed :-)
[Reply]
Discuss Thrower 09:19 AM 05-19-2020
San Francisco Fed: 20%+ unemployment through year 2022.
[Reply]
Marcellus 09:41 AM 05-19-2020
Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower:
San Francisco Fed: 20%+ unemployment through year 2022.
That's not remotely what that article says.
[Reply]
BWillie 09:41 AM 05-19-2020
Originally Posted by limested:
Viral respiratory infections tend to drop significantly this time of year. This was expected. The worry is that it come back hard in the fall.
I realize that, but that doesn't explain why critical care remains constant but death rate has dropped. I fully expect this to be mitigated by the hot and humid weather and come back in the fall during the cold and flu season.
[Reply]
Monticore 09:42 AM 05-19-2020
Originally Posted by PAChiefsGuy:
I think it all depends on how disciplined we are. If we follow the guidelines I think we'll be okay. If we don't then who knows...
We should be able to deal with it better in the fall but it would help if everybody would get their flu shots so we don't have to deal with that as much at the same time.
[Reply]
POND_OF_RED 09:47 AM 05-19-2020
Originally Posted by DaFace:
My issue is just that it's really not possible to truly keep that group isolated. Many of them rely on family members to help with chores, shopping, medications, etc., so they'll still have contact with the "infected world." It will also hit hardest among families where grandparents are living with a larger family (typically lower-income and minorities).

But it is what it is at this point. The grand re-opening is happening, so all we can do is try and hope for the best.
If it’s not possible to keep that group isolated than it should easily tell you that it’s COMPLETELY impossible to keep the majority of the country isolated. We need to get back to people remembering that death and taxes are the only thing certain in life. You’re still much more likely to die from some sort of cancer than you are from Coronavirus. However people used to convince themselves to go about their daily lives without focusing on the panic porn is what we need to remember to do. I don’t know if it’s going to be possible for some of you that have been stuck at home with nothing but the news. The good news is that so far this year we’re actually on the lower end of expected deaths so keeping everyone locked in there homes has obviously taken away a lot of the other expected deaths to even the numbers out a bit.
[Reply]
jackkked 09:49 AM 05-19-2020
I found this on the SanDiegoCounty.gov website this morning, not sure if all municipalities offer such information or not, but for those that are interested in knowing what is really going on, it could be useful.
Attached: COVID SAN DIEGO COUNTY MAY 9 2020.jpg (76.5 KB) 
[Reply]
POND_OF_RED 09:50 AM 05-19-2020
Originally Posted by BWillie:
I realize that, but that doesn't explain why critical care remains constant but death rate has dropped. I fully expect this to be mitigated by the hot and humid weather and come back in the fall during the cold and flu season.
Hopefully we can at least get the home opener with fans so we can have our banner raising party before it returns then.
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