Originally Posted by staylor26:
Biggest factor for the Ravens is overcoming the AFCCG mentally, while being in an already tough division where every team should be better at QB this year.
I don't see them dominating and being a 1st seed again.
Lamar or Henry will be hurt come playoff time. Possibly both. They got lucky last year imo [Reply]
Originally Posted by Gravedigger:
I heard a rumor that Mahomes has him on his fantasy team as WR3.
I thought that comment before the SB was pretty interesting given how Chase feels about this organization and Mahomes (at least publicly) in general. [Reply]
Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath15:
LOL what makes you think Samuel can't/doesn't do that? Lining up in the slot doesn't eliminate you from intermediate routes.
Samuel will also take some of the things McKinnon used to do.
Samuel is much more versatile in this offense than HB is.
Samuel just never has.
Average depth of target for Brown over greater than 12 yards. Samuel's ADOT is 9.5 and that's fueled by a MASSIVE outlier season in 2019 in Carolina where he averaged over 15 yards/target over 103 targets (nearly a quarter of his targets). And that was, probably not coincidentally, a lousy season for him.
Take that out and he's around 7.5 yards of average target depth. The two guys are clearly used much much differently and have been their entire careers.
I mean the short answer is I don't think he's someone that can do that because he simply never HAS. And he's been in the league for 7 years now.
He's really never been a very versatile player. He's been a slot guy for every truly productive season of his career. If you're going to sign him expecting him to play wide, you're setting yourself up for failure.
Maybe tools will trump, but were that the case I think he'd have demonstrated it this far into his career. He hasn't. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
Samuel just never has.
Average depth of target for Brown over greater than 12 yards. Samuel's ADOT is 9.5 and that's fueled by a MASSIVE outlier season in 2019 in Carolina where he averaged over 15 yards/target over 103 targets (nearly a quarter of his targets). And that was, probably not coincidentally, a lousy season for him.
Take that out and he's around 7.5 yards of average target depth. The two guys are clearly used much much differently and have been their entire careers.
I mean the short answer is I don't think he's someone that can do that because he simply never HAS. And he's been in the league for 7 years now.
He's really never been a very versatile player. He's been a slot guy for every truly productive season of his career. If you're going to sign him expecting him to play wide, you're setting yourself up for failure.
Maybe tools will trump, but were that the case I think he'd have demonstrated it this far into his career. He hasn't.
And I'd argue that HB's ADOT is artificially *inflated* because teams just throw him the YOYO balls. Which *hopefully* is why his catch rate is like 55%
Whatever at this point, they are gonna do what they are gonna do. Neither of them excite me much, but today should be interesting at least. [Reply]
The Vikings came close to extending WR Justin Jefferson last offseason. In Indy, GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah aggressively rejected the idea of trading the star. Kirk Cousins’ departure hasn’t changed things. The Vikings have no plans to trade Jefferson, sources tell me and @alec_lewis.
The market for receivers is what it is so there's no reason to bitch about what they're gonna have to pay to replace the MVS role. Look forward to not having to count on Toney and Moore for anything. [Reply]
You guys realize Henry is beat up as fuck right :-) They lost their DC, Queen, and Stone. That doesn't off ser that with an ancient RB with a million miles on him. [Reply]
Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath15:
And I'd argue that HB's ADOT is artificially *inflated* because teams just throw him the YOYO balls.
Whatever at this point, they are gonna do what they are gonna do. Neither of them excite me much, but today should be interesting at least.
It's the regularity of it, though.
For his career:
12.7, 11.7, 12.0, 13.5, 11.8
That's a metronome, man. That's an incredibly consistent usage pattern over 500 career targets.
There's nothing 'inflated' about it at that point - it's a large enough sample size that it can't just be YOLO balls that are doing it. He's been on 2 different teams, worked with several different QBs and I believe 3 (maybe 4) differnet OCs and every single one of them thought the best way to use him was as a deep/intermediate threat. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
It's the regularity of it, though.
For his career:
12.7, 11.7, 12.0, 13.5, 11.8
That's a metronome, man. That's an incredibly consistent usage pattern over 500 career targets.
There's nothing 'inflated' about it at that point - it's a large enough sample size that it can't just be YOLO balls that are doing it. He's been on 2 different teams, worked with several different QBs and I believe 3 (maybe 4) differnet OCs and every single one of them thought the best way to use him was as a deep/intermediate threat.
Yet - as I just posted in another thread - his career yards per target is under 7, and a full yard and a half less than MVS.
So they may be using him as that threat, but the numbers say he's pretty damn inefficient at it. [Reply]
Back in '06 i went to Chad Johnson's condo to put high security deadbolts on his doors. Pulled up and he had a white Charger in the driveway with like 22" chrome rims. Comes out and extends his hand and says 'hi, i'm chad' and i was like 'i know who you are dude'. So i finish up around an hour or two later. He had Frank Sinatra type music playing over the speakers upstairs the whole time and had a bunch of those big action shot oil paintings of Bengals players on large black canvas all over the walls.
So i finish writing him up and we go downstairs and who is sitting on a couch, on the phone with the Bengals, working on Chad's new contract? Drew Rosenhaus. He's chatting away, saying all the things you'd expect an agent to say to a team. So he gets done and hangs up the phone and...you'd think he was a long lost cousin of mine. Get's up, walks over and shakes my hand, introducing himself and he proceeds to chat me up for about 5 minutes about they're working on Chad's new contract and it's always a drawn out game of back and forth, etc etc.
I had always pictured Rosenhaus like most people picture agents. Scummy, lawyer type assholes that are just money hungry. This dude was super nice and i was a nobody locksmith there to upgrade Chad's locks. Surprised the shit out of me.
Anyway...i could have been one of those ridiculous-twix-random-overheard people only, it would have been 100% true because the contract wasn't quite finalized but i knew, before anyone publicly, it was in the works and it was real close to being done.
If Andy Reid can find a way to use him to his abilities I think he will be a good get for that WR room. Seems he was a bad fit for a few OC. Dude is great after the play breaks down and needs time to get open. [Reply]
Brown's been targeted deep - again, from the stats I can find - 114 times over his career. Clearly a LOT.
You know how many of those throws were deemed to be 'on target throws'? 42.
So you can argue "Hey, guy's ADOT is inflated by his deep shots" but I think that takes "Man, his catch% is really poor" out of your argument in the process. Because 2/3 of the balls thrown to him on those plays simply weren't catchable balls.
And that's what so many of us have been trying to say to this point. He's a deep/intermediate WR who's had REALLY bad quarterback play on deep shots.
It's awfully hard to maintain quality rate stats when 25% of your targets are downfield and 2/3 of those are arrant shots. [Reply]
Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath15:
Yet - as I just posted in another thread - his career yards per target is under 7, and a full yard and a half less than MVS.
So they may be using him as that threat, but the numbers say he's pretty damn inefficient at it.
Was typing my post above as you were making this one.
I think there's a really reasonable explanation for that as I dig into it. [Reply]
