I’m kind of hoping this is the season where we make our transition towards a big 3 tandem at the WR position like the Bengals have, and the 3 are Toney, Moore, and Rice. With Ross from Clemson being the 4th receiver.
MVS, Watson, James, etc all being insurance policies in case the above scenario doesn’t play out for another year.
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Originally Posted by Chris Meck:
The catch rate stuff, for example, in Megatron's analysis, looks like a solid stat. Until you consider that catch rate also has a lot of variables involved, notably who's throwing the damned ball. What routes the receiver is running, the relative difficulty of the completion, etc. This is why Juju caught the ball at a 77% rate. Megatron would have you believe that means Juju was like...a better receiver than Hill. Or at least, that's what it SHOULD mean, according to his statistical analysis. We obviously know that's not the case.
But he's happy to compare apples to oranges as long as it fits his narrative.
It's pseudo-science. It's hooey.
I do not expect Skyy to get 1,000 yards. I don't expect any Chief not named Travis Kelce to get 1,000 yards.
But the reason is not that they're not good enough, the reason is that the targets will be spread out. Now, if Toney's injury issues continue, it's entirely possible that Skyy gets to 1,000. If Toney's healthy, he's likely close and Skyy will be more like 600. James has shown he's good enough to get a target share. Rice will have some packages. Watson will get some looks as a rotational guy. The backs will get a share (sorry, Megatron. Those still count!)
And we'll be a top 3 type offense.
Exactly.
Acting like a catch rate can't improve with another year in the offense (meaning he knows where exactly to be) and with a slightly different role, and a larger sample size is just as silly as acting like he's going to rack up 1500 yards.
It is not a huge leap for Moore to make it to 1,000 yards. I don't think he actually WILL (I think it's more like 700-800) if Toney stays healthy). But which is more likely:
Toney staying healthy a full season? Or Moore mirroring Smith-Schuster's production if given 100-110 targets?
I can see a scenario where there's a little LESS Kelce and RBs and more WR room. Here's an educated guess at how it might break out, looking at 2022 roles and production
Kelce - 1200 (150 less)
Toney - (if healthy) 900 (200 Toney yards + 300 Hardman yards + 200 RB yards + 200 vacated Skyy Moore yards)
Moore - 700(250 less than Smith-Schuster 2022 in same role)
Valdes-Scantling - 700 (same as 2022)
RBs - 600 (200 less than 2022, collectively)
TEs not named Kelce -600 (handle a little more of the load than 2022)
That gets you to about 4700 yards. It wouldn't be hard at all to find another 500 yards amongst other targets, with Richie James probably picking up the bulk of them.
If the WR room performs more in line with its upside, you probably see the TEs not named Kelce total shrink, as they run less 12 and 13 sets and more 11 sets, and some of those yards end up with Rice or Moore or Toney or James. multiple TE sets ran about 30 percent of the snaps for the Chiefs in 2022, a sharp uptick.
If Toney has the injury problems he has had in the past, that means more James, more RB, and more Moore yards, IMO.
I think all it really takes for Moore to be right in the same statistical stratosphere as 2022 Juju Smith-Schuster is for Rashee Rice to be a more typical rookie in Andy Reid's system, and Toney to miss some time to injury.
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