- Ranked 2nd among charted prospects in success rate vs. man (75%) and press coverage (75.7%) - Led all prospects in success rate vs. zone coverage (88.1%) - He can play inside and outsidehttps://t.co/HbifB61JlJpic.twitter.com/HYsV8rlAzF
Originally Posted by staylor26:
A healthy JuJu would've easily had 1,000. He was damn close while dealing with that knee issue.
It's really not that complicated.
He was at 933 and missed some time for injury. If he doesn't get injured, then he hits 1000 easy Moore will take his spot. JJSS went from catching ~68% of his targets in Pitt to catching 77% of his targets in KC.
MegaTard acts like there is no way Moore increases his catch % is insane. Considering he's worked hard with Mahomes, then that should lead to being in the right spot, so he catches more balls.
I literally cannot wait to tell him he's wrong and an idiot and can't wait for him to say that they weren't as good as their stats show. Like how he says our offense wasn't the actual number 1 offense and he bases that on literally nothing other than the stuff he pulls out of his ass and doesn't back his insanity up. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Megatron96:
Damn, no one took stats/probability, ever?
Question: how many targets does Skyy need to break the 1,000yd mark.
Working parameter: Skyy is the replacement for JuJu Smith Schuster, and must operate within that role, i.e., short-to-intermediate zones, between the numbers.
simple data:
250yds/22cth=11.4yds/cth
1001 yds/11.4yds=87.8 catches, so 88 catches
.667y=88, solving for 'y.' Y=131.xxx, so 131 targets needed to reach 88 catches.
That's the lazy, imprecise way to do it. But it does get you in the ballpark. Anyone think there's a realistic chance that Skyy sees 130+ targets? When Toney needs at least 120 targets, and Rice needs, idk, 70? Ditto whichever Ross brother suits up, and James, and Watson . . . Trying to get Skyy 130 targets just doesn't add up.
But let's continue . . .
Now, above you posit the idea that Skyy could average more than 11.4 yards/catch, and that he could average better than 66.7% catch rate. Which sound reasonable in a bubble.
However, let's dive into that a bit.
For data, I'll give a couple three databases to work with. Use whatever ones you like, if these don't please you.
Go ahead and look at the WRs in the NFL that average 70%+ catch rates, AND exceed 1,000 yards. Just for fun. We'll get back to that later.
Now, you said "If he gets 12.5 ypc, then he only needs 80 receptions to hit 1000."
Okay, let's break that down. in 2022, he averaged about 7.4 airyds/target, and about 4 yards YAC/r(eception). Now those two stats are slightly inflated, because he had a 30 yd reception and a 16 airyard target, and just 22 catches/33 targets total, so both of those numbers greatly skewed his final numbers, which is obvious when seeing that he averaged just 7.4 airyards/target. In other words, most of his routes were 7.4 yards or less.
But, let's cross-reference here and look at the WRs that consistently turn in seasons around those two numbers. How about just ONE yard higher and lower to give us a decent spread of 'similar' players?
So, at 8.5 yds/target Deandre Hopkins
8.2 CeeDee Lamb
8.1 A. Thielen
8.0 Brandon Aiyuk . . . you really believe that Skyy is better than these guys?
And what about around 7.4 to 7.0? Hunter Henry, 7.5, D. Smith and Keenan Allen 7.4, J. Chase at 7.0 . . . and Richie James comes in at 6.9. Anyone realistically think that Skyy belongs in that crowbetter than these guys in year 2 of his career?
And let's try to remember that the working parameter is between the numbers and mostly short-to-intermediate routes. So, Skyy isn't going to be running a lot of go-routes or sluggos, which would help boost his average yards/target. He's going to be catching most of his passes between 3 and 9 yards from the LoS. Which is why, even after having a couple targets beyond 15 yards, his air yards/target is still just 7.4.
Which is partly how I got to 10.1 yards/target. Because the first thing you have to do is subtract the outlier/anomalous data points, such as Skyy's 30 yard reception, as well as his lowest yard-catch, which was 1 or something. But that alone skews the results of that 7.4 yards/catch. And then there's his longest 'air yards/target,' which was 16 yards, iirc? That's gotta go as well as the least one, of course.
that drops his yards/catch to under 11.0 yards, and his air yards/target to just under 7.0, and then there's his YAC/r, which also drops after that one big catch/YAC play that went for 30 yards, goes away. Once those outliers are accounted for, his yds/tgt comes in at about 10.1 or 10.2.
And then we cross-reference to see if that holds up at all:
So you think that Skyy can go over 12.4 yards/catch. Okay, let's see what kind of WR operates in that air.
S. Diggs 13.2
Christian Kirk 13.2
Tyler Boyd 13.1
B. Aiyuk 13.0
CeeDee Lamb 12.7
Devonta Smith 12.6
H. Henry 12.4
T. Lockett 12.3
B. Cooks 12.3
Travis Kelce 12.2
J. Chase 12.0
Mark Andrews (TE) 11.6
DK Metkalf 11.6
Keenan Allen 11.4
So, probably not.
And btw, 66.7% catch rate/1000yds is high. It's also inflated by 0.3% (actual percentage is 66.667% for accuracy's sake) which equates to about 3 catches/6 targets, but I'll give you those gratis.
You say Skyy should be able to surpass 71% catch rate? Let's see who lives in that neighborhood.
Amon-Ra St. Brown 72.6%
Travis Kelce at 72.5%
T. Lockett 71.8%
T. Boyd 70.7%
S. Diggs 70.1%
Tyreek Hill 70.0%
D. Smith 69.9%
G. Kittle 69.8%
Justin Jefferson 69.6%
C.D. Lamb 68.6%
B. Aiyuk 68.4%
T. Higgins 67.9%
T. Higbee 66.7%
D. Hopkins 66.7%
And who's below 66.7%? Glad you asked.
How about J. Chase@ 64.9%? Adam Thielen, Mark Andrews, Terry McLaurin . . . all under 65% catch rates.
See, here's the thing you don't seem to understand. As targets go up, catch rates tend to go down.
that's just basic probability/statistics. Don't believe me? Let's cross-reference that with actual WRs that exceeded 1,000 yards in 2022, and ther catch%s.
Go ahead and click on that pfr link and click on the catch% column. Scroll down that list until you find your first 1,000 WR (as opposed to TE). That's Chris Godwin @ 73.2%.
EVERY OTHER WR THAT CROSSED OVER 1,000 YARDS HAS A CATCH RATE LOWER THAN 67%.
And let's be clear: Skyy isn't Godwin. Or Amon-Ra, or Lockett, or Stefon Diggs, fcs.
Probability says that Skyy's 66.7% being based off of 22/33 is probably inflated slightly, not the other way around, due to the tiny size of the data sample. The same way Toney's catch rate is totally skewed (please don't be dumb enough to think Toney can exceed 82% for an entire season, lol).
So the idea that he'll have a higher catch rate is not very likely, and in fact it's far more likely that his catch rate will be less than 66.7% by season's end. I tried to shoot right down the middle and gave him a 65% catch rate. Which is still pretty high, but at least more realistic. And when I ran those numbers, he went over 150 targets, at which point I just stopped, because no way Skyy sees 150 targets in 2023.
Like I said, it's a nice idea in a bubble.
ALL of your stats and probability are skewed. You have a tiny sample size and make assumptions and then find stats that back them up in a bubble without context.
Skyy doesn't have to be elite to reach 1,000. He has to replicate Juju, and remain healthy-and would probably need Toney to miss significant time.
Juju was sold and dependable, but wholly unspectacular.
The argument against Skyy getting to 1,000 isn't that Skyy isn't capable, it's that Kelce, Toney, MVS, James, and Rice will also get significant targets and there's only one ball.
Your off-season has been spent lamenting that the offense plodded at times because they weren't athletic enough at WR- and in Juju's case that was increasingly true as the season went on, but you refuse to consider that Skyy Moore might be BETTER in season 2 in the offense. Better than Juju on one good knee.
He very well might, and STILL not get enough targets to reach 1,000 because Toney, if stays healthy, probably will.
You might say best case scenario is Skyy doesn't get to 1,000, because of what that means. [Reply]
I don’t expect Moore to put up 1000 just because this will be such a deep receiving corps. Mahomes is going to spread the ball around even more than last year. [Reply]
The catch rate stuff, for example, in Megatron's analysis, looks like a solid stat. Until you consider that catch rate also has a lot of variables involved, notably who's throwing the damned ball. What routes the receiver is running, the relative difficulty of the completion, etc. This is why Juju caught the ball at a 77% rate. Megatron would have you believe that means Juju was like...a better receiver than Hill. Or at least, that's what it SHOULD mean, according to his statistical analysis. We obviously know that's not the case.
But he's happy to compare apples to oranges as long as it fits his narrative.
It's pseudo-science. It's hooey.
I do not expect Skyy to get 1,000 yards. I don't expect any Chief not named Travis Kelce to get 1,000 yards.
But the reason is not that they're not good enough, the reason is that the targets will be spread out. Now, if Toney's injury issues continue, it's entirely possible that Skyy gets to 1,000. If Toney's healthy, he's likely close and Skyy will be more like 600. James has shown he's good enough to get a target share. Rice will have some packages. Watson will get some looks as a rotational guy. The backs will get a share (sorry, Megatron. Those still count!)
Originally Posted by RaidersOftheCellar:
I don’t expect Moore to put up 1000 just because this will be such a deep receiving corps. Mahomes is going to spread the ball around even more than last year.
How about total yards from scrimmage? I could see Moore getting close to 1,000 yards via receptions and jet sweeps. [Reply]