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Nzoner's Game Room>***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***
JakeF 10:28 PM 02-26-2020
A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

[Reply]
Monticore 12:06 PM 05-06-2020
Originally Posted by O.city:
Kinda brings it back to the iceberg theory. It's huge underneath, small up top of what we see.

There's tons of infections or previous infections that have recovered underneath, we see the hospitalizations and deaths up top. Looking at the numbers of the elderly this wipes out, maybe it just rides along in the normal population then gets in these areas and explodes.
For some reason the math doesn't always add up with this thing, hopefully the figure out the part of the equation that is fucking things up.
[Reply]
Monticore 12:08 PM 05-06-2020
Originally Posted by O.city:
It's just amazing that the more and more we test, the more and more we find which was always seemingly the case.

So if that is in fact the case, woudln't we have found the same thing a month ago we're finding now?
They might not have had it then, I have not clue though.

Hey O city have you seen if they still think there is a correlation between amount of exposure and severity of symptoms?
[Reply]
O.city 12:11 PM 05-06-2020
Originally Posted by Monticore:
They might not have had it then, I have not clue though.

Hey O city have you seen if they still think there is a correlation between amount of exposure and severity of symptoms?
Yeah, there's alot out there about that. I'm not sure anything concrete yet.
[Reply]
mr. tegu 12:12 PM 05-06-2020
On nursing homes and rehab facilities a lot of those places put patients in the same room. Sure they have the little curtain but that’s no help. So even if one person in there doesn’t contract it from the staff, they will most certainly get it from their roommate. That’s just one reason why they would get hit so hard.
[Reply]
O.city 12:14 PM 05-06-2020
The nursing home thing is just tough. If you could have testing basically for everyone in and out of there you could maybe help?
[Reply]
TLO 12:18 PM 05-06-2020
Amazing information in regards to Missouri

https://health.mo.gov/living/healthc...ics-update.pdf
[Reply]
DaFace 12:18 PM 05-06-2020
Originally Posted by Monticore:
For some reason the math doesn't always add up with this thing, hopefully the figure out the part of the equation that is fucking things up.
It seems like we have a very high level of variability with regard to testing processes and rates, test accuracy, reactions among those infected, and accuracy of assigning COVID-19 to hospitalizations/deaths. All of those in combination lead to an ugly mess.
[Reply]
sedated 12:22 PM 05-06-2020
Originally Posted by TLO:
Amazing information in regards to Missouri

https://health.mo.gov/living/healthc...ics-update.pdf
What specifically?
[Reply]
sedated 12:25 PM 05-06-2020
Originally Posted by O.city:
Theoretically, if it is as infectious and explosive as we think, if it were here then, it would have overwhelmed hospitals sooner than it has.

If there was community spread in January and February in these places as is to be thought, the hospitals didn't seem to realize or notice it.
The ONLY thing that could possibly change with this information is if we found out that an earlier round of unknown infections got us a lot closer to herd immunity. But that would take a few assumptions and testing that 1) is already being attempted and 2) has had rumors of unreliability
[Reply]
Mecca 12:27 PM 05-06-2020
Originally Posted by TLO:
Amazing information in regards to Missouri

https://health.mo.gov/living/healthc...ics-update.pdf
Am I supposed to make a book report here?
[Reply]
BleedingRed 12:31 PM 05-06-2020
Originally Posted by O.city:
Kinda brings it back to the iceberg theory. It's huge underneath, small up top of what we see.

There's tons of infections or previous infections that have recovered underneath, we see the hospitalizations and deaths up top. Looking at the numbers of the elderly this wipes out, maybe it just rides along in the normal population then gets in these areas and explodes.
I've thought this all along, what it changes Deface is we might be closer to herd immunity than previously thought, how close? TBD
[Reply]
SAUTO 12:32 PM 05-06-2020
Originally Posted by dirk digler:
I saw an owner of a nursing home describe how he was able to keep the virus out and that was himself and all his staff have been quarantined in campers parked outside the nursing home for 90 days so far I think.

That is about the only way.

At one of the larger meat packing outbreaks some workers lived with nursing home workers so you can predict how that ended.
I've got a customer who lives in Texas and has a disabled daughter in a home in the kc area.

They have people that have just lived there since this happened to take care of the residents.
[Reply]
O.city 12:33 PM 05-06-2020
Originally Posted by TLO:
Amazing information in regards to Missouri

https://health.mo.gov/living/healthc...ics-update.pdf
That is interesting. According to that the R0 is well below 1 everywhere save STL. So the slow opening is probably the way to go as long as you keep it well below 1.
[Reply]
BleedingRed 12:34 PM 05-06-2020
It would also change the mortality rate dramatically/Hospitalization rate dramatically if that were true.

In which case we could adjust models accordingly
[Reply]
O.city 12:35 PM 05-06-2020
Originally Posted by sedated:
The ONLY thing that could possibly change with this information is if we found out that an earlier round of unknown infections got us a lot closer to herd immunity. But that would take a few assumptions and testing that 1) is already being attempted and 2) has had rumors of unreliability
But if it were spreading wild in say january or february, I'd think either we'd have noticed it or it's not the case.
[Reply]
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