Originally Posted by Bearcat:
It's my understanding those are based on public perception, not what Vegas thinks... or in other words, if the Chiefs had been favored by 2.5 last night, all the money would have been on the Bills due to public perception, so the line is set to offset that some.
And yeah, the public will always undervalue due to media bullshit and overvaluing the regular season... and frankly, their bias against wanting the same teams to win every year.
Opening lines are all on algorhythms and more data than you can imagine. The opening line was -3 to -3.5. The line then moves on the wagers coming in... [Reply]
I genuinely hope a narrative develops that BAL should win blah blah. Chiefs unequivocally use that as motivation and play with more conviction because of it. Started with CIN in the AFCCG last year, and then in the SB, and again yesterday with the road game BS. [Reply]
Originally Posted by staylor26:
Idk, I'm just not scared of Lamar in a playoff game of this magnitude with Mahomes/Spags :-)
Yeah. I agree.
Running the ball is great, but you have to be able to throw.
Sure he’s improved as a passer, but he still relies on the threat of running to be successful. That has not changed, as much as people want that to be true.
He had 148 rushing attempts again this season, which is the 6th highest ever by a QB. Jackson also has 2 of the other top 6 (Hurts has 2, Fields has 1).
He might be the running QB who breaks the mold and wins the big one. He’d be the anomaly though. It really hasn’t worked for any others.
Jackson will have to make the big throws in this game. We’ll see if he can. [Reply]
Originally Posted by IowaHawkeyeChief:
Opening lines are all on algorhythms and more data than you can imagine. The opening line was -3 to -3.5. The line then moves on the wagers coming in...
Originally Posted by wachashi:
The opening line is essentially what Vegas thinks (oddsmakers is the better term). Some of the most sophisticated computer models in the world + human intuition factoring in injuries and other current conditions. Public money doesn't typically cause the line to move outside of extremely popular events (the Super Bowl being one).
Gotcha, thanks... yeah, that is a bit odd then, at the very least for the Phins, while a couple of the spreads this weekend were 9.5. It was easy to see the Phins were paper champs and didn't have a chance.
I can at least see the data pointing at the Bills last night... being 4-1 against playoff teams (IIRC) while the Chiefs were 1-4 (despite close games). [Reply]
Originally Posted by RavensMania:
divisional game...
You were beaten by the Raiders last I checked.
You have a 2-4 record against playoff teams heading into yesterdays game.
Ravens set a record for beating teams that ended with 10 wins.
Literally none of that shit ever matters. It's the same mistake fans of every single team we play come up with - some regular season random BS.
Chiefs offense was spotty all year, and yet amazing in both playoff games.
It's a lot more relevant that the Ravens weren't tested in their game, against a young team that wasn't meant to be there. It doesn't prepare you for the heavyweight fight coming. We see that year after year. [Reply]
