The Athletic Royals mailbag with Alec Lewis:
Why is Carlos Santana still getting at-bats? — Joel S.
It appears as if there are 10.5 million reasons why.
As of Thursday afternoon, only six Royals hitters have had more plate appearances this season than Santana (122). His wRC+ is 75, meaning his production has been 25 percent below league average. His walk rate remains elite. It ranks in the 99th percentile of MLB. But Santana’s barrel rate is the lowest of his career, as is his max exit velocity, which is an indication of raw power.
Multiple opposing scouts have asked this same question: Why? Why is manager Mike Matheny continuing to pencil Santana into the lineup nightly? The answer reverts back to money.
The Royals signed Santana, then 34 years old, to a two-year deal worth $17.5 million in the winter of 2020. Santana struggled the year before. His barrel rates and exit velocities had declined. His plate discipline, though, remained. A month before the signing, Moore said the club wanted to improve its on-base ability. That same day, he said, looking forward to 2021: “We expect to win next year. What does that look like? Is it going to be enough wins to make the playoffs? We’ll find out. But our mindset is going to be to go out and win every single pitch, every inning, every game. That’s the only way we’re ever going to win another championship. You’ve got to expect to win in all aspects. And trust me, Mike Matheny and the coaching staff understand that completely.”
The club felt that signing Santana would solidify that expectation, and two months into the 2021 season Santana’s OPS was .825. The Royals did not trade him at the deadline even though they were 45-57. Santana suffered multiple injuries in the second half of the season, including a Grade 2 quad strain that required a platelet-rich plasma injection this offseason.
He has only continued to struggle in 2022, yet the Royals slot him in the lineup even though first-base prospects such as Nick Pratto and Vinnie Pasquantino are ready in the eyes of many. The reason lies in the Royals wanting to recoup something in return for Santana before the trade deadline.
Would you bring up Vinnie Pasquantino or Nick Pratto when Santana is gone? — Michael S.
Yes.
Only two hitters have better wRC+ than Pasquantino (168) at the Triple-A level this season. He has a 1.034 OPS with 24 walks and 27 strikeouts. Pratto has a 125 wRC+ and a .828 OPS with 26 walks and 49 strikeouts.
In May alone, Pasquantino has a 1.147 OPS with nine home runs and 28 RBIs in 81 at-bats. Pratto, meanwhile, has a .904 OPS with 18 walks and 20 strikeouts in 49 at-bats.
“Both are ready,” an opposing scout said recently.
When the club moves on from Santana, it will bring them up.
When we do eventually bring Pasquantino and Pratto up, where do you see them playing? Could you give a lineup prediction? — Wilson H.
One of them will almost certainly be playing first base.
Pratto won a minor-league Gold Glove award at the position last year. Opposing scouts cannot say enough about his ability at the position, and the Royals have long expressed that they believe an elite defensive first baseman only enhances the entire infield. Pasquantino is less mobile, but his defense is much improved and he is capable at the big-league level.
The two will likely trade off opportunities at the position. When Pratto is playing first base, Pasquantino will likely fill the designated-hitter role. When Pasquantino is playing first base, the Royals can be more creative.
In the past week, Pratto has played left field and right field. Both spots make sense, especially in the event the Royals trade outfielder Andrew Benintendi before the deadline. In that case, maybe Kyle Isbel slides over to left field, Michael A. Taylor plays center and Pratto plays right field, while Pasquantino plays first. In that scenario, Hunter Dozier could be the designated hitter.
Configurations such as these are aplenty. You asked for a lineup prediction, so here’s a bat-heavy, light-defense one that is fun to think about
:
2B — Whit Merrifield
1B — Vinnie Pasquantino
3B — Bobby Witt Jr.
DH — Salvador Perez
C — MJ Melendez
RF — Hunter Dozier
LF — Nick Pratto
CF — Kyle Isbel
SS — Nicky Lopez
Project the likelihood of the following players being on the active roster after the trade deadline: Benintendi, Melendez, Scott Barlow, Josh Staumont, Nicky Lopez, Greinke, Pratto, Pasquantino and Merrifield. — Brad S.
Since we’re on the topic of trades, why not get this one out of the way? Here’s a percentage chance for each player to remain with the club after the trade deadline as well as a quick explanation for each percentage:
Benintendi — 0 percent: The Royals have a 0.2 percent chance of making the playoffs, per FanGraphs. Benintendi is in the final year of his contract. Players typically have two times in their careers at which they have a say in the team they play for: the MLB Draft and free agency. Benintendi is likely headed for free agency. That being the case, the Royals should trade him.
Melendez — 100 percent: Only two Royals hitters have been better than Melendez, per wRC+ (Edward Olivares and Benintendi). The Royals’ lineup needs all the help it can get. Melendez can help.
Barlow — 40 percent: Relievers are volatile. They’re also valuable. Barlow may not be a closer for a contending team, but he would be an impact trade target. For that reason, considering the Royals’ farfetched chance at contending this season (and maybe even next), it would make sense.*
Staumont — 40 percent: (*Copy and paste the Barlow explanation here.)
Lopez — 75 percent: The Royals do not have many big-league ready middle infielders besides Witt Jr. and Merrifield. Having depth is important. (Adalberto Mondesi tore his ACL, further solidifying that.) Lopez may be struggling at the plate, but as long as he’s healthy and capable with his glove, the Royals will likely hold on to him.
Greinke — 50 percent: This feels like a toss-up because one question seems to really matter: What does Greinke want? Does he want to remain in Kansas City throughout the year? Or does he want to compete for a World Series? Both would make sense.
Pratto — 90 percent: With the Royals in full development mode, they’ll likely promote Pratto to the big leagues. That is unless they feel as if they could package him in a trade for a return that would set them up better for the future.*
Pasquantino — 90 percent: (*Copy and paste the Pratto explanation here.)
Merrifield — 50 percent: Is this the year the Royals part with Merrifield? Maybe. If they do, the return will likely pale in comparison to what it would have been years ago. But he’s still capable of helping a contending team, and he certainly deserves the opportunity to partake in a winning run.
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