For all things Royals in 2022. #3 minor league system according to Baseball America. The Bobby Witt era should begin this year. Will Salvy still be the homerun king? How does the glut of infield players work out? Will the young pitchers take the next step?
Free Agents/Trades Acquisitions
Zack Greinke, P
Amir Garrett, P
Taylor Clarke, P
Top 10 Prospects from Baseball America
1. Bobby Witt, SS
2. Asa Lacy, P
3. MJ Melendez, C
4. Nick Pratto, 1B
5. Jackson Kowar, P
6. Kyle Isabel, OF
7. Frank Mozzicato, P
8. Ben Kudrna, P
9. Jonathan Bowlan, P
10. Vinnie Pasquantino, 1B
Duncan's Top Royals Prospects
Spoiler!
1. Bobby Witt, Jr., SS. MLB.
This status lasts about another 4 weeks, but let’s take a moment to appreciate having the top guy in the minor league prospects lists for at least a little while longer. Witt has prodigious ability and the question is really just IF he can meet it. They have not had a prospect like this in my lifetime, and really probably ever. Combine insane raw physical skills (right there with Adalberto Mondesi and Willie Wilson in the ranks right behind Bo Jackson) with unbelievable work ethic, a humble-but-confident nature, and already having shown he can struggle and overcome to achieve big success, and you have the tools for a show-stopping centerpiece. Oh, and throw in the former-player’s kid aspect on it on top of things, and there is every reason to believe he’s going to succeed and succeed big.
2. M.J. Melendez, C, AAA Omaha.
I was early on putting him in this slot last year, and I don’t regret it. The power, the ability to be a good defender behind the dish as well as having the athletic ability to play 3B or LF, too, and you have a really valuable overall piece and FANTASTIC understudy for Salvador Perez.
3. Asa Lacy, LHP. AA Northwest Arkansas
Whoa, let’s get crazy again. Lacy has outstanding stuff. Top of the system. He got hurt and lost his command during COVID times, but appears to be back on track so far this spring. If his command sticks, this is a guy who can move quickly. And his ceiling is really second to nobody in the minor league pitching ranks.
4. Vinnie Pasquantino, 1B. AA Northwest Arkansas
Vinnie starts the season back at AA due to the guy who follows him on the list here. He just hits, folks. I love his combination of contact, loud contact, plate discipline, and lack of strikeouts. The Billy Butler comparisons are annoying (in that I will NEVER refer to this man as Italian Breakfast except in the instance that just occurred), but the Billy Butler comparisons are also fairly apt… if you made Butler a lefthanded hitter, AND improved his body/athleticism from a 20 to a 40, AND if you added that little extra touch of power we all wished Butler could consistently find.
5. Nick Pratto, 1B, AAA Omaha.
Hey, let’s stay at 1B. Pratto has flashy power and I love his batting eye AND his hand-eye coordination. The hair he’s been rocking this spring is also pretty sweet. I slot him just behind Pasquantino simply because I think his bat profile is more volatile. The glove and arm are sweet/plus for 1B, though.
6. Jonathan Bowlan, RHP, AAA Omaha
Bowlan is coming back from Tommy John surgery, and this ranking is assuming that recovering is successful. If it his, you’re talking about a big, consistent SP who throws hard enough and has enough of a repertoire to really make things happen. If the recovery goes well, he may be shuttling to the majors in July to reinforce the rotation.
7. Nick Loftin, CF, AA Omaha.
Loftin is a guy who has really grown on me. I saw him as a quasi super-utility guy when the Royals drafted him, The full-time shift to CF (which means they think he has the speed and the overall defensive ability to handle CF in Kansas City) adds a lot of value here. The ultimate positive offensive upside is similar to peak Whit Merrifield, maybe with a touch more early power.
8. Michael Massey, 2B, AA Northwest Arkansas.
Massey was an absolute revelation last year, hitting for power and average and keeping his K rate down while playing a really strong 2B. He has a very sweet, short lefthanded stroke. This is another aggressive rating, but Massey has proven himself through a tough minor league assignment already, and the arrow is pointed up.
9. Ben Kudrna, RHP, Rookie Ball
Kudrna is a big, physical specimen with a lot of upside and potential. The fastball and slider are already nearly MLB-level in terms of velocity and movement (command needs work). Kudrna is a guy who, with luck, and health, and good development, could ascend to the top of a rotation.
10. Frank Mozzicato, LHP, Rookie Ball.
Mozzicato has a curveball that suggests he has a feel for spin. If you want to dream, you hope that the next 2-3 years turn the 175 he weighed when drafted into a rock-solid 220/225 and carries with it an increase in fastball velocity from 90-91, sitting 87-88, to 96-97, sitting 93-94. You pair his ability to spin the ball (which also suggests he should be able to easily master a sweeper slider) with that type of fastball velo and a changeup he already has a feel for, and it’s an exciting profile.
He has a little more to go in terms of growing into that projectability than Kudrna, which is why he slots right behind him.
11. Alec Marsh, RHP, AA Northwest Arkansas
Marsh missed a lot of 2021 to injury, but the hard-throwing righthander is another guy who could move quickly once the minor league season starts. He’s undeniably got the stuff of a quality major-league pitcher. The question is if he can master enough command to cash it in. This guy is a great example of TINSTAAPP.
12. Angel Zerpa, LHP, AAA Omaha
Zerpa might quickly outperform this slot. His stuff ticked up in 21 and he ended the season making a start in the majors. He’s nice depth to have, and honestly, I’m a big fan of just throwing numbers at pitching. Zerpa definitely helps create the depth you need to generate a top-notch and reliable home-grown rotation.
13. Maikel Garcia, SS, AA Northwest Arkansas
Garcia is a really intriguing hitter, a righthanded hitter who has a nice combination of contact skills and control of the strike zone (this cousin of Alcides Escobar is less savvy with the glove and more savvy at the plate). The Royals protected him for a reason (he’s on the 40-man).
14. Carter Jensen, C, A ??
Jensen is a local product whose bat will probably push him off C (as well as the Royals depth at that spot throughout the organization). This is a future 1B profile, and a nice one. He makes a lot of loud contact and shows an ability to lift the ball. Should be fun to watch this year.
15. Ben Hernandez, RHP, A+ Quad Rivers
Hernandez missed a good part of 2021 but still has that butterfly changeup and a classic pitcher’s profile. He’ll need to find a reliable swing-and-miss secondary to make it in the bigs, but if not, the fastball velocity and changeup should make him a quality high-leverage reliver.
16. Dylan Coleman, RHP, AAA Omaha
Speaking of relievers, Coleman is a hard-throwing righthander who probably spends most of 22 in the Royals’ pen. ½ of the compensation for the Rosenthal trade a few years back, Coleman has a big fastball and nasty breaking ball.
17. Will Klein, RHP, AA Northwest Arkansas
Speaking of relivers, everything I just said about Coleman? Yeah, you can say it about Klein, too. Klein regularly toyed with hitters at high A last year, striking out 121 hitters in just 70 1/3 innings pitched. For those counting at home, that’s a 15.5 K/9 rate. Yep. That’ll play.
18. Anthony Veneziano, LHP, AA Northwest Arkansas
Here’s another big, power arm. Veneziano hasn’t been relegated to bullpen only yet, though. His fastball bumped into the high 90s last year on a starter’s workload. He’s still looking for a changeup, but if he doesn’t find it, you’re looking at a really promising future bullpen fireballer.
19. Erick Pena, OF, A ?
Pena did… not have a strong 2021 full season debut. His struggles look a lot like those of Pratto and Melendez in 2019. Pena has the same type of raw toolkit to work from as those two, with great hands and natural power. He needs to fix a hitch in his swing and calm it down, but so did Melendez. Of this second ten grouping, Pena has the highest upside and could jump right into the top 5 of the org ranks.
20. Darryl Collins, OF, A+
Collins is an international signing out of Europe. I like the hitting package here – good eye and contact skills. He needs to make more loud contact, but if he can, really a nice guy.
Overall takeaways:
This is a system with a lot of depth. We could go another 10-12 deep and still be talking about guys with a good shot to make the majors. The changes to the organization’s approach are bearing fruit, as even less-heralded draftees are stepping forward.
The combination of upside (Witt, Melendez, Lacy), depth, and guys you can dream on is fun. It may not produce quite as much as the 2011 group did, but it does offer a more sustainable system, less reliant on a few big-ticket guys.
Originally Posted by nychief:
Wait...are we saying there is bad roster construction? NO WAY?!?!
A lot of has to do with injuries.
Mondi one they were prepared for. Olivares came in right field, Whit to 2nd. Boom solid.
Olivares getting hurt through it a little more in whack. Riveria comes up, BWJ to SS, Lopez to 2nd, Whit back to RF. It works gets two players into natural long term positions.
Cam getting hurt and bringing MJ up throws things out of a wack. Salvy still playing so MJ's limited. Salvy getting hurt - MJ full time starter, which is good but shit throws roster construction out of wack.
Santana is just keeping Pratto's spot warm until he is fully ready. Last year of deal throw away in trade or DFA. No biggie there.
Royals essentially just have too many assets at C and 1B. Perez, MJ, Dozier, Pratto and Vinny. Got to move some of them at some point. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Why Not?:
Per usual, many here are not being honest (or perhaps they just don't get the reality) about potential trade results. The time to have traded Whit (get why they didn't, and I like watching him play) was a year or two ago. You are getting next to nothing for him now. You are getting absolutely nothing for Mondesi. You might get the lotteriest of lottery tickets for Dozier. Bennintendi (sp?) would fetch you something decent ish. You can't nor should you nor will you trade Salvy. That's it. Other then the untouchable youngsters, there is not much worth anything here.
Speaking on reality (trade results ), you are correct in so many ways.
However 1 step farther away from all that is, getting nothing for them and holding the kids back!
Time to cut bait and let the kids play while you work on the pitching! [Reply]
The front office got the Royals to this point. Should you believe in them to get them out?
Craig Brown
Originally Posted by :
We made it.
We officially passed the magical 40-game point of the baseball season that Royals president Dayton Moore emphasizes as the moment where he can accurately assess his squad and make the necessary adjustments going forward.
Allow me to provide an accurate assessment of these now 42 games from the Royals:
They stink.
They have lost an American League-high 28 games and are currently riding a six-game losing streak. The fact this is their first losing streak of that many games with so many losses already in their account is somewhat amazing. As Rany Jazayerli tweeted out, this is the longest they’ve gone since 2016 with a losing streak this long. Most seasons they don’t get out of April without at least a six-game losing streak. This year, they made it almost to the end of May.
Progress.
Speaking of progress, what exactly was I thinking heading into this season? I want to say that I saw this coming, but sadly, I was too busy adjusting my blinders. It feels like I have failed as an analyst. I have to wear this. This was a club that finished 11th in OBP, 13th in slugging percentage and 13th in runs scored in the AL in 2021; their lone move to bolster the lineup was the promotion of Bobby Witt Jr. to the big leagues. Don’t get me wrong…Bobby Witt Jr. is going to be a successful ballplayer. But the dude alone is not enough to pull this offense out of the abyss.
Isn’t that wild? Moore and general manager J.J. Picollo looked at the roster and thought that Salvador Perez at age 32 would probably slug .540 again, Carlos Santana would bounce back from a hip injury to provide above-average offensive production and Whit Merrifield could outfox Father Time. Oh, and Ryan O’Hearn is a major league hitter.
The reality is this: before Perez was injured he was one of the worst hitters on the team with a 79 wRC+, suffering through a severe power outage. Santana most decidedly has not rebounded and has been worse than Perez with a 75 wRC+. Merrifield, after an awful start, is showing signs of life, collecting at least one base hit in 15 of his last 16 games. The statistical hole he dug for himself in April means he will need to stay hot in June if he’s going to claw back to league average production overall.
And O’Hearn is O’Hearn.
Over the last couple of weeks, the Royals’ offense hasn’t been all that bad. It’s still bad, just not that bad. Their collective 97 wRC+ in the last 14 games is a tick below average. Merrifield has supplied plenty of the juice, but he’s had help from Witt Jr. (140 wRC+ in the last 14 days), Emmanuel Rivera (154 wRC+) and the ever-steady Andrew Benintendi (168 wRC+).
They’ve averaged 5.2 runs per game in the last two weeks. They were scoring 3 R/G just ahead of this stretch and ranked 29th in the majors in run scoring. Today, they’re up to 3.7 R/G, ranked 24th. For this club, that counts as an explosion.
It’s the pitching that’s torpedoed their chances at victory.
Those numbers encompass the entire season and they’re awful. The pitchers don’t strike out anyone, walk everyone and basically act as a machine-pitch staff for an eight-year-old C team.
We saw this on display over the last three games. In each contest, the Royals at one point had a win expectancy greater than 80 percent. Including a 99 percent win expectancy on Sunday in the seventh inning against the Twins. We know how that ended.
Sorry for bringing it up.
The Royals changed their hitting coach yet continue to employ an arsonist as the pitching coach. Watching a mound visit followed by a home run is a helluva thing.
The bullpen kept this team in so many games in April where the offense couldn’t muster a thing. So the hitting starts to come around and the bullpen runs out of gas. As you were.
The Royals, as a franchise did not make any moves on their day off Wednesday. Vinnie Pasquantino, however, continued to make a statement.
In 180 plate appearances in Triple-A (his first turn through the league) Pasquantino has walked 24 times against 26 strikeouts. The rates mirror what he’s done at stops in the complex leagues, Single-A and Double-A. The dude has elite plate discipline and a rock-steady approach. With the two dingers he crushed on Wednesday, he now has 12 on the year for the Storm Chasers. That surpasses the 11 he bashed for Double-A Northwest Arkansas in 237 plate appearances last year. He’s making a mockery of the league.
When I’m asked, “why isn’t Pasquantino on the team?” my rote reply is that he isn’t on the 40-man roster and there really isn’t room the way the Royals have constructed their roster and that patience is probably the way to go. What the hell? I’m not on the Royals payroll. That’s a ridiculous answer. Can you believe I’m allowed to have a newsletter?
The real answer is, the Royals haven’t got a clue what they’re doing when it comes to building a roster. They’ve boxed themselves in with veterans they are too stubborn to release, or players who should be journeymen have found a home in Kansas City and are clogging the roster.
We are now five years into the rebuild. The question shouldn’t be “Why isn’t Player X on the team yet?” It should be “If they ever get back to contention, who will be contributing?” Carlos Santana is not going to be in Kansas City past his contract expiring at the end of this year. His presence is only robbing younger players of plate appearances and he’s the Royals’ sunk cost fallacy. His spot should go to those very younger players who should be part of the future, like Pasquantino. Or Nick Pratto, who after a slow start, is burning up Triple-A. Again.
But then, ever since returning from the IL, Santana has played first base basically every other day. The other reps at the position have gone to Hunter Dozier, who is one of the few Royals in this lineup who actually has shown improvement over the previous season. Dozier is hitting .266/.325/.455 with a 125 wRC+. If he can maintain that production, it would be the best season of his career by wRC+.
Fine. Santana goes. So does O’Hearn. Dozier really shouldn’t be on the field—his best position is DH. If you bring up Pasquantino and Pratto, only one of those dudes can play first at a time. (I’m fairly certain this is in the rulebook.) And then what about when Perez returns from the IL? Where does Melendez play on days he’s not behind the plate? Pratto has been working in the outfield at both corner positions, but that’s currently the domain of Benintendi and Merrifield. How have we made it this far without mentioning Kyle Isbel, who has been scorching the baseball of late?
The Royals have somehow created a roster log jam where mediocrity seems like the best-case scenario. Play the kids! But how do you shoehorn Pasquantino, Pratto and Melendez into a roster with Perez, Benintendi and Merrifield? Moore has talked about being “transactional” and by damn, it’s time to actually put up, you know? Skim back four paragraphs to my question about who will be around when the Royals are actually ready to contend. It won’t be Benintendi, who is a free agent at season’s end. Time for some transactional transactions. He has to be shopped and shopped now. Sure, it’s early and the Royals won’t get what they think they should, and removing him from the lineup will weaken the club in the short term, but these kids need to play.
The front office needs to figure out the best way to make that happen. Given their track record, do you trust them to make the right decisions? This should be a time of hope and anticipation. Instead, it’s just all too familiar.
There’s an institutional rot around this club. Sure you’d love to see changes, but they’re not forthcoming. We’re stuck. Firing a pitching coach so soon after dismissing the hitting coach smells of panic and panic isn’t in Moore’s playbook. It’s also something of an admission of administrative ineptitude. Not happening with this crew.
Moore isn’t in danger. Same for Picollo. They were just promoted to their current positions less than a year ago. I’m not sure what the purpose is of the ownership group, but they’re not pulling the plug when they’ve sat on their hands for the three years they’ve had control of the club. Pandemics and labor wars aren’t an excuse when every team is dealing with the same issues. Charge $30 for parking and cry me a river. Sherman’s group will make their money back when they get that downtown stadium built on the taxpayer dime.
The print wags will breathlessly extoll the new power structure, telling us that without the prodding from Picollo, the hitting coach move wouldn’t have been made, but come on…The reality is, it’s the same as the old structure. They’re responsible for the current mess and they’re not going anywhere. I don’t believe in their abilities to get the Royals out of it. It’s a rather grim cycle.
Their .333 winning percentage calculates to a 54-108 record over the full season.
Originally Posted by Mecca:
You couldn't trade Salvy if you wanted to, he's in year 1 of an 80 million dollar deal, very few teams will want that.
I thought there was an analyst recently on the radio that said we could get a "haul" for Salvy.
I'd think its somewhere in the middle. Contract is pretty decent for a great catcher but maybe not a 32 year old. He just hit 48 homeruns, has been one of the best in baseball at a valued position his entire career. But he's a 32 year old catcher, and not everyone can be Molina. [Reply]
Instead of cutting ot trading OHearn or Santana. The Kansas City Royals baseball team has decided to bring up AAAA player Brewer Hicklin to strikeout alot. Expect him to hit .209 and strikeout about 50% of his at bats. [Reply]
Brewer Hicklin starting in center tonight. What happened to Blanco? Hicklin has struck out 70 times in 150 ABs at AAA. This club doesn't need anymore Ks from anybody!!!! [Reply]
Yeah, time to see if that talk about being "transactional" is real or bullshit.
If you're being transactional, you're trading Andrew Benintendi at the trade deadline. The Twins and Brewers are good candidates/landing spots for him.
If you're being transactional, you find a team that can use Whit Merrifield. The Angels actually make a TON of sense as a potential matchup here. They've gotten atrocious production from 2B, and Merrifield's presence would allow them to either shift their star hitters down a slot (if he's vintage Whit and worthy of hitting 1) or improve production at the bottom of the lineup, to better setup Ohtani and Trout the second time through the order.
While you're talking to the Angels, you see if they want to bring on Brad Keller. They need pitching depth, Keller is good and durable, and it would work well in their park. Can you sneak Jo Adell into the deal from the Angels' side (with Trout, Brandon Marsh, Taylor Ward, their future in the OF looks fairly set, Adell has struggled, and Ohtani is their future at DH)? Worth dreaming on and worth starting there.
^ Throw Scott Barlow to whatever team will take the risk Matheny has already destroyed his arm and pray he passes the physical. Angels would work here, too.
And then there's the big one. Salvador Perez. Will they trade him? I don't think so and would be shocked, actually.
Could they trade him?
I think the Mets would be motivated to add him. The salary range isn't going to be a problem for them (and it is essentially a 3/$62M deal after this year, which is not bad, really). Even with Francisco Alvarez on the horizon, he's still a ways away and the Mets are contenders this year.
And again... it's a hard sell for an executive who's trying to keep his job.
If you're the front office head, and you've sold your owner on being close to contention and having the team and the coaching staff to lead them there... and in the season you had told me it would start coming together, all of a sudden all the coaches need to go and you're selling the key parts of the team for future parts...
Hard to smile, say go ahead, and keep trusting the front office at that point.
I think the only deals we'll actually see will be Benintendi and maybe Barlow (if Mike Matheny hasn't finished ruining him by then). [Reply]
Alvarez and Melendez have so much juice in their bat that either guy can DH or be converted to 1b if necessary. Melendez at least has the baseline athleticism to play in the corners or maybe (BIG maybe) at 3b.
If you could get Alvarez for Perez you RUN to the fax machine to sign off on that one.