Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
@JeffPassan: South Korea has done as good a job as any country of containing coronavirus -- and now, baseball is being played there, with opening day slated for late April. At ESPN, a look inside how Korea is doing it, through the eyes of Americans playing ball there: https://es.pn/34d3B4Fhttps://twitter.com/JeffPassan/statu...328321/photo/1 [Reply]
Originally Posted by O.city:
Well in that case if you can smoke it down to nothing you can get back to life quicker. The ideal scenario was always to do what South Korea did
I don’t think it’s possible but we’ll see
But an inherently mobile and spread out society will never be able to bring it to nothing. There will always be embers and plenty of dry grass. At best your waiting for rain during a drought.
The controlled burn is what you need at that point. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
But an inherently mobile and spread out society will never be able to bring it to nothing. There will always be embers and plenty of dry grass. At best your waiting for rain during a drought.
The controlled burn is what you need at that point.
Problem woth a society like that a controlled burn goes out of control quick
If they can set up the satellite programs and such, you can track this thru tests and public health enough for us to get back to normal [Reply]
Just announced: CBS, ABC, NBC networks are coming together to air "ONE WORLD: TOGETHER AT HOME" Saturday, April 18... Colbert, Kimmel and Fallon will co-host. It'll be on broadcast + more than a dozen cable channels, YouTube, radio, etc.
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
You asked 3 or 4 days ago why Missouri's 'peak' date was so far out - that's your answer.
If you sit there and hover at 80%, you'll be sitting there at 80% forever. You'll trade peak on the front for drag on the back. In the end your outcomes won't be any better (because you never had anyone the 80% scenario OR the 100% scenario who fell out of the pool for lack of capacity), but you'll have dragged it out unnecessarily.
Analogy time!!! What do you know about racing? Key to a fast lap is apexing your corners and being able to time your acceleration coming out of the backside of the turn. And to do that correctly, you need to time your deceleration nearly perfectly so that you dive into that corner and your lateral Gs will hold exactly as strong as needed at the apex of the curve. Then once you hit the apex you can mat the damn thing and come blasting out of the corner.
What coming well short of capacity is akin to is simply decelerating too much. Sure, you'll still make the turn, but you'll miss your apex point and you'll end up losing momentum and attack angle. You'll have never risked staying too tight and ending up sliding into the wall on the exit, but you'll also have lousy lap times.
It isn't important to just stay beneath the line - it's important to get as close to it as you can comfortably do so because that's how you achieve the best balance of outcomes and time.
There's even a comparison for going beyond capacity and 'passing under braking' as an extremely aggressive approach that will also yield worse outcomes but may be necessary if your prioritizing position over a stopwatch, but that's just too far in the weeds at that point.
You don't want it at 100% when you don't have a limitless supply of therapeutics and providers. Just because the hospitals weren't filled to capacity didn't mean that providers weren't using garbage bags and ponchos as PPE, and that they weren't using third and fourth line induction and sedation agents instead of first line agents. That means more trips into the rooms, more exposure, more PPE use, and more burn on the system in a time where pharmaceuticals are already difficult to acquire due to shutdowns.
The point wasn't to redline the system, because herd immunity wasn't the goal. The goal was and is to limit cases as much as possible because the amount of hospitalizations required to reach herd immunity is too high for the hospital system to sustain it. There's a reason why surgeons don't schedule 24 hours of surgery a day, but instead spread it over several days--you may clear your cases out faster, but you're putting an unsustainable drag on the provider
If these numbers hold, then it's proof that the distancing measures are working. It's also proof that short of an abject disaster, Leavitt's quote was right: "Everything we do before a pandemic will seem alarmist. Everything we do after will seem inadequate." [Reply]
Just announced: CBS, ABC, NBC networks are coming together to air "ONE WORLD: TOGETHER AT HOME" Saturday, April 18... Colbert, Kimmel and Fallon will co-host. It'll be on broadcast + more than a dozen cable channels, YouTube, radio, etc.
Originally Posted by O.city:
Problem woth a society like that a controlled burn goes out of control quick
If they can set up the satellite programs and such, you can track this thru tests and public health enough for us to get back to normal
How?
350 million people spread out throughout the country and no built in immunity to speak of. Let's say you can test 10 million people/day - still gonna take more than 30 days to get through wave 1.
And you'll STILL need to re-test people because again, no built in immunity so many of those people can/still WILL acquire it. Especially when we also have little control of our borders and few other nations will have any ability to maintain similar testing protocols.
Which is why focusing on timelines matters - this can't go on in perpetuity. You have to build in a buffer population to allow the mass testing protocols to matter. Otherwise it's just circular, you just keep going round and round and round and re-testing people to see if they've acquired it yet, not if they'll acquire it at all. And if they don't have antibody's built up, is your answer still to just keep them locked up?
From day 1 this has been about coming up with the best of bad options. And the controlled burn option is certainly the hardest, but it's also the only one that will actually yield an outcome (apart from the 'hunker down and hope for rain' approach, which will inevitably fail anyway, IMO).
I just don't see a way practically effectuate a mass-testing sort of approach. [Reply]
350 million people spread out throughout the country and no built in immunity to speak of. Let's say you can test 10 million people/day - still gonna take more than 30 days to get through wave 1.
And you'll STILL need to re-test people because again, no built in immunity so many of those people can/still WILL acquire it. Especially when we also have little control of our borders and few other nations will have any ability to maintain similar testing protocols.
Which is why focusing on timelines matters - this can't go on in perpetuity. You have to build in a buffer population to allow the mass testing protocols to matter. Otherwise it's just circular, you just keep going round and round and round and re-testing people to see if they've acquired it yet, not if they'll acquire it at all. And if they don't have antibody's built up, is your answer still to just keep them locked up?
From day 1 this has been about coming up with the best of bad options. And the controlled burn option is certainly the hardest, but it's also the only one that will actually yield an outcome (apart from the 'hunker down and hope for rain' approach, which will inevitably fail anyway, IMO).
I just don't see a way practically effectuate a mass-testing sort of approach.
Bill Gates suggested that we might be able to move to a mail-in test kind of like when you do a cheek swab for ancestry DNA tests and the like. Scale is still an issue, but that'd move it forward much more quickly. [Reply]
Just announced: CBS, ABC, NBC networks are coming together to air "ONE WORLD: TOGETHER AT HOME" Saturday, April 18... Colbert, Kimmel and Fallon will co-host. It'll be on broadcast + more than a dozen cable channels, YouTube, radio, etc.
Originally Posted by :
Momentum is building for ESPN and NFL Network to do a combined draft telecast. Over the weekend I spoke with four people with knowledge of the ongoing discussions between the league, ESPN and NFL Network about draft weekend plans on April 23-25. It’s looking more likely that instead of the two football rivals doing info-warring separate telecasts, they’ll combine to do one telecast, likely out of the ESPN studio in Bristol, Conn., with NFL Network talent either co-hosting or being major contributors to the coverage. As it was explained to me, it’s looking more and more likely that West and East coast studios owned and operated by the NFL, in Culver City, Calif., and Mount Laurel, N.J., will remain closed by state decrees, while the ESPN facility is allowed to remain open on a limited basis. And the socially responsible thing, as one person told me, is to have one unified broadcast.
How will it look? TBD, though I’d expect NFL Network’s traditional host Rich Eisen and personnel expert Daniel Jeremiah, at the very least, to be have prime roles in the show. One good thing is while NFL Network and ESPN have a healthy rivalry, it’s not a bitter Red Sox-Yankees type; the executives and many of the anchors at each shop have mostly good relationships. This isn’t final, but it seems to be the way the league and networks are leaning right now.
This likely would not affect the scheduled ABC draft show. There are plans for that show to go on as scheduled, with the larger network doing less of a hard-core football telecast with different anchors and talent.
Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins:
You don't want it at 100% when you don't have a limitless supply of therapeutics and providers. Just because the hospitals weren't filled to capacity didn't mean that providers weren't using garbage bags and ponchos as PPE, and that they weren't using third and fourth line induction and sedation agents instead of first line agents. That means more trips into the rooms, more exposure, more PPE use, and more burn on the system in a time where pharmaceuticals are already difficult to acquire due to shutdowns.
The point wasn't to redline the system, because herd immunity wasn't the goal. The goal was and is to limit cases as much as possible because the amount of hospitalizations required to reach herd immunity is too high for the hospital system to sustain it. There's a reason why surgeons don't schedule 24 hours of surgery a day, but instead spread it over several days--you may clear your cases out faster, but you're putting an unsustainable drag on the provider
If these numbers hold, then it's proof that the distancing measures are working. It's also proof that short of an abject disaster, Leavitt's quote was right: "Everything we do before a pandemic will seem alarmist. Everything we do after will seem inadequate."
Then your discussion becomes the definition of 'capacity', then. And the supply issue doesn't seem to be working itself out anyway, despite the fact that we seem to have a lot of PPE in various places that we simply aren't getting to the places that need it. Time doesn't seem likely to solve that (as a nationwide lockdown instead of an organic spread has anyplace that HAS spare equipment holding onto it like grim death).
Moreover, we have little evidence yet that medical providers are being hit inordinately hard right now due to a lack of PPE. The situation on the ground appears to be that things aren't ideal, but they also aren't critical. Yes, some healthcare providers are contracting it, but compare their rates to transit workers or retail workers and they're not out of line (especially when compared to the rates of exposure).
They're pushing equipment right to the edge of its functional envelope, but the results thus far aren't that they're not being protected at all because of that. They're using every inch of runway in most cases, but there's still little indication that planes are driving off the edge. If outcomes have been worse because of these shortages, it's a damn small amount. Which again gets back to the definition of capacity - isn't that consideration baked into the cake already? [Reply]
