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Nzoner's Game Room>***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***
JakeF 10:28 PM 02-26-2020
A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

[Reply]
O.city 10:54 AM 04-06-2020
It’s just showing how the guys saying you were jumping without all the right info first were right
[Reply]
Sure-Oz 10:55 AM 04-06-2020
@JeffPassan: South Korea has done as good a job as any country of containing coronavirus -- and now, baseball is being played there, with opening day slated for late April. At ESPN, a look inside how Korea is doing it, through the eyes of Americans playing ball there: https://es.pn/34d3B4F https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/statu...328321/photo/1
[Reply]
O.city 10:55 AM 04-06-2020
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
Exactly.

0 new cases in Boone County since April 1. What do you think we've actually accomplished?
Well in that case if you can smoke it down to nothing you can get back to life quicker. The ideal scenario was always to do what South Korea did

I don’t think it’s possible but we’ll see
[Reply]
DJ's left nut 11:04 AM 04-06-2020
Originally Posted by O.city:
Well in that case if you can smoke it down to nothing you can get back to life quicker. The ideal scenario was always to do what South Korea did

I don’t think it’s possible but we’ll see
But an inherently mobile and spread out society will never be able to bring it to nothing. There will always be embers and plenty of dry grass. At best your waiting for rain during a drought.

The controlled burn is what you need at that point.
[Reply]
O.city 11:08 AM 04-06-2020
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
But an inherently mobile and spread out society will never be able to bring it to nothing. There will always be embers and plenty of dry grass. At best your waiting for rain during a drought.

The controlled burn is what you need at that point.
Problem woth a society like that a controlled burn goes out of control quick

If they can set up the satellite programs and such, you can track this thru tests and public health enough for us to get back to normal
[Reply]
BigRedChief 11:14 AM 04-06-2020

Just announced: CBS, ABC, NBC networks are coming together to air "ONE WORLD: TOGETHER AT HOME" Saturday, April 18... Colbert, Kimmel and Fallon will co-host. It'll be on broadcast + more than a dozen cable channels, YouTube, radio, etc.

— Brian Stelter (@brianstelter) April 6, 2020

[Reply]
'Hamas' Jenkins 11:14 AM 04-06-2020
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
You asked 3 or 4 days ago why Missouri's 'peak' date was so far out - that's your answer.

If you sit there and hover at 80%, you'll be sitting there at 80% forever. You'll trade peak on the front for drag on the back. In the end your outcomes won't be any better (because you never had anyone the 80% scenario OR the 100% scenario who fell out of the pool for lack of capacity), but you'll have dragged it out unnecessarily.

Analogy time!!! What do you know about racing? Key to a fast lap is apexing your corners and being able to time your acceleration coming out of the backside of the turn. And to do that correctly, you need to time your deceleration nearly perfectly so that you dive into that corner and your lateral Gs will hold exactly as strong as needed at the apex of the curve. Then once you hit the apex you can mat the damn thing and come blasting out of the corner.

What coming well short of capacity is akin to is simply decelerating too much. Sure, you'll still make the turn, but you'll miss your apex point and you'll end up losing momentum and attack angle. You'll have never risked staying too tight and ending up sliding into the wall on the exit, but you'll also have lousy lap times.

It isn't important to just stay beneath the line - it's important to get as close to it as you can comfortably do so because that's how you achieve the best balance of outcomes and time.

There's even a comparison for going beyond capacity and 'passing under braking' as an extremely aggressive approach that will also yield worse outcomes but may be necessary if your prioritizing position over a stopwatch, but that's just too far in the weeds at that point.
You don't want it at 100% when you don't have a limitless supply of therapeutics and providers. Just because the hospitals weren't filled to capacity didn't mean that providers weren't using garbage bags and ponchos as PPE, and that they weren't using third and fourth line induction and sedation agents instead of first line agents. That means more trips into the rooms, more exposure, more PPE use, and more burn on the system in a time where pharmaceuticals are already difficult to acquire due to shutdowns.

The point wasn't to redline the system, because herd immunity wasn't the goal. The goal was and is to limit cases as much as possible because the amount of hospitalizations required to reach herd immunity is too high for the hospital system to sustain it. There's a reason why surgeons don't schedule 24 hours of surgery a day, but instead spread it over several days--you may clear your cases out faster, but you're putting an unsustainable drag on the provider

If these numbers hold, then it's proof that the distancing measures are working. It's also proof that short of an abject disaster, Leavitt's quote was right: "Everything we do before a pandemic will seem alarmist. Everything we do after will seem inadequate."
[Reply]
Mecca 11:15 AM 04-06-2020
Originally Posted by BigRedChief:
By the time that happens FF7 will be out so no need.
[Reply]
DJ's left nut 11:15 AM 04-06-2020
Originally Posted by O.city:
Problem woth a society like that a controlled burn goes out of control quick

If they can set up the satellite programs and such, you can track this thru tests and public health enough for us to get back to normal
How?

350 million people spread out throughout the country and no built in immunity to speak of. Let's say you can test 10 million people/day - still gonna take more than 30 days to get through wave 1.

And you'll STILL need to re-test people because again, no built in immunity so many of those people can/still WILL acquire it. Especially when we also have little control of our borders and few other nations will have any ability to maintain similar testing protocols.

Which is why focusing on timelines matters - this can't go on in perpetuity. You have to build in a buffer population to allow the mass testing protocols to matter. Otherwise it's just circular, you just keep going round and round and round and re-testing people to see if they've acquired it yet, not if they'll acquire it at all. And if they don't have antibody's built up, is your answer still to just keep them locked up?

From day 1 this has been about coming up with the best of bad options. And the controlled burn option is certainly the hardest, but it's also the only one that will actually yield an outcome (apart from the 'hunker down and hope for rain' approach, which will inevitably fail anyway, IMO).

I just don't see a way practically effectuate a mass-testing sort of approach.
[Reply]
Chiefnj2 11:15 AM 04-06-2020
If labs are maxed out, the numbers will flatten
[Reply]
DaFace 11:18 AM 04-06-2020
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
How?

350 million people spread out throughout the country and no built in immunity to speak of. Let's say you can test 10 million people/day - still gonna take more than 30 days to get through wave 1.

And you'll STILL need to re-test people because again, no built in immunity so many of those people can/still WILL acquire it. Especially when we also have little control of our borders and few other nations will have any ability to maintain similar testing protocols.

Which is why focusing on timelines matters - this can't go on in perpetuity. You have to build in a buffer population to allow the mass testing protocols to matter. Otherwise it's just circular, you just keep going round and round and round and re-testing people to see if they've acquired it yet, not if they'll acquire it at all. And if they don't have antibody's built up, is your answer still to just keep them locked up?

From day 1 this has been about coming up with the best of bad options. And the controlled burn option is certainly the hardest, but it's also the only one that will actually yield an outcome (apart from the 'hunker down and hope for rain' approach, which will inevitably fail anyway, IMO).

I just don't see a way practically effectuate a mass-testing sort of approach.
Bill Gates suggested that we might be able to move to a mail-in test kind of like when you do a cheek swab for ancestry DNA tests and the like. Scale is still an issue, but that'd move it forward much more quickly.
[Reply]
crayzkirk 11:19 AM 04-06-2020
Originally Posted by PAChiefsGuy:
I don't know how some of you watch golf. So boring
You're missing the point; it's a great way to put yourself to sleep and take a nap. Once you're an old guy like me, you'll understand naps...
[Reply]
SuperBowl4 11:21 AM 04-06-2020
Originally Posted by BigRedChief:
Is Bill Gates going to be there? :-)
[Reply]
FloridaMan88 11:22 AM 04-06-2020
Details about a possible joint ESPN/NFL Network broadcast of the NFL Draft, from Peter King:

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.co...ng/?cid=fmiatw

Originally Posted by :
Momentum is building for ESPN and NFL Network to do a combined draft telecast. Over the weekend I spoke with four people with knowledge of the ongoing discussions between the league, ESPN and NFL Network about draft weekend plans on April 23-25. It’s looking more likely that instead of the two football rivals doing info-warring separate telecasts, they’ll combine to do one telecast, likely out of the ESPN studio in Bristol, Conn., with NFL Network talent either co-hosting or being major contributors to the coverage. As it was explained to me, it’s looking more and more likely that West and East coast studios owned and operated by the NFL, in Culver City, Calif., and Mount Laurel, N.J., will remain closed by state decrees, while the ESPN facility is allowed to remain open on a limited basis. And the socially responsible thing, as one person told me, is to have one unified broadcast.

How will it look? TBD, though I’d expect NFL Network’s traditional host Rich Eisen and personnel expert Daniel Jeremiah, at the very least, to be have prime roles in the show. One good thing is while NFL Network and ESPN have a healthy rivalry, it’s not a bitter Red Sox-Yankees type; the executives and many of the anchors at each shop have mostly good relationships. This isn’t final, but it seems to be the way the league and networks are leaning right now.

This likely would not affect the scheduled ABC draft show. There are plans for that show to go on as scheduled, with the larger network doing less of a hard-core football telecast with different anchors and talent.

[Reply]
DJ's left nut 11:26 AM 04-06-2020
Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins:
You don't want it at 100% when you don't have a limitless supply of therapeutics and providers. Just because the hospitals weren't filled to capacity didn't mean that providers weren't using garbage bags and ponchos as PPE, and that they weren't using third and fourth line induction and sedation agents instead of first line agents. That means more trips into the rooms, more exposure, more PPE use, and more burn on the system in a time where pharmaceuticals are already difficult to acquire due to shutdowns.

The point wasn't to redline the system, because herd immunity wasn't the goal. The goal was and is to limit cases as much as possible because the amount of hospitalizations required to reach herd immunity is too high for the hospital system to sustain it. There's a reason why surgeons don't schedule 24 hours of surgery a day, but instead spread it over several days--you may clear your cases out faster, but you're putting an unsustainable drag on the provider

If these numbers hold, then it's proof that the distancing measures are working. It's also proof that short of an abject disaster, Leavitt's quote was right: "Everything we do before a pandemic will seem alarmist. Everything we do after will seem inadequate."
Then your discussion becomes the definition of 'capacity', then. And the supply issue doesn't seem to be working itself out anyway, despite the fact that we seem to have a lot of PPE in various places that we simply aren't getting to the places that need it. Time doesn't seem likely to solve that (as a nationwide lockdown instead of an organic spread has anyplace that HAS spare equipment holding onto it like grim death).

Moreover, we have little evidence yet that medical providers are being hit inordinately hard right now due to a lack of PPE. The situation on the ground appears to be that things aren't ideal, but they also aren't critical. Yes, some healthcare providers are contracting it, but compare their rates to transit workers or retail workers and they're not out of line (especially when compared to the rates of exposure).

They're pushing equipment right to the edge of its functional envelope, but the results thus far aren't that they're not being protected at all because of that. They're using every inch of runway in most cases, but there's still little indication that planes are driving off the edge. If outcomes have been worse because of these shortages, it's a damn small amount. Which again gets back to the definition of capacity - isn't that consideration baked into the cake already?
[Reply]
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