For all things Royals in 2022. #3 minor league system according to Baseball America. The Bobby Witt era should begin this year. Will Salvy still be the homerun king? How does the glut of infield players work out? Will the young pitchers take the next step?
Free Agents/Trades Acquisitions
Zack Greinke, P
Amir Garrett, P
Taylor Clarke, P
Top 10 Prospects from Baseball America
1. Bobby Witt, SS
2. Asa Lacy, P
3. MJ Melendez, C
4. Nick Pratto, 1B
5. Jackson Kowar, P
6. Kyle Isabel, OF
7. Frank Mozzicato, P
8. Ben Kudrna, P
9. Jonathan Bowlan, P
10. Vinnie Pasquantino, 1B
Duncan's Top Royals Prospects
Spoiler!
1. Bobby Witt, Jr., SS. MLB.
This status lasts about another 4 weeks, but let’s take a moment to appreciate having the top guy in the minor league prospects lists for at least a little while longer. Witt has prodigious ability and the question is really just IF he can meet it. They have not had a prospect like this in my lifetime, and really probably ever. Combine insane raw physical skills (right there with Adalberto Mondesi and Willie Wilson in the ranks right behind Bo Jackson) with unbelievable work ethic, a humble-but-confident nature, and already having shown he can struggle and overcome to achieve big success, and you have the tools for a show-stopping centerpiece. Oh, and throw in the former-player’s kid aspect on it on top of things, and there is every reason to believe he’s going to succeed and succeed big.
2. M.J. Melendez, C, AAA Omaha.
I was early on putting him in this slot last year, and I don’t regret it. The power, the ability to be a good defender behind the dish as well as having the athletic ability to play 3B or LF, too, and you have a really valuable overall piece and FANTASTIC understudy for Salvador Perez.
3. Asa Lacy, LHP. AA Northwest Arkansas
Whoa, let’s get crazy again. Lacy has outstanding stuff. Top of the system. He got hurt and lost his command during COVID times, but appears to be back on track so far this spring. If his command sticks, this is a guy who can move quickly. And his ceiling is really second to nobody in the minor league pitching ranks.
4. Vinnie Pasquantino, 1B. AA Northwest Arkansas
Vinnie starts the season back at AA due to the guy who follows him on the list here. He just hits, folks. I love his combination of contact, loud contact, plate discipline, and lack of strikeouts. The Billy Butler comparisons are annoying (in that I will NEVER refer to this man as Italian Breakfast except in the instance that just occurred), but the Billy Butler comparisons are also fairly apt… if you made Butler a lefthanded hitter, AND improved his body/athleticism from a 20 to a 40, AND if you added that little extra touch of power we all wished Butler could consistently find.
5. Nick Pratto, 1B, AAA Omaha.
Hey, let’s stay at 1B. Pratto has flashy power and I love his batting eye AND his hand-eye coordination. The hair he’s been rocking this spring is also pretty sweet. I slot him just behind Pasquantino simply because I think his bat profile is more volatile. The glove and arm are sweet/plus for 1B, though.
6. Jonathan Bowlan, RHP, AAA Omaha
Bowlan is coming back from Tommy John surgery, and this ranking is assuming that recovering is successful. If it his, you’re talking about a big, consistent SP who throws hard enough and has enough of a repertoire to really make things happen. If the recovery goes well, he may be shuttling to the majors in July to reinforce the rotation.
7. Nick Loftin, CF, AA Omaha.
Loftin is a guy who has really grown on me. I saw him as a quasi super-utility guy when the Royals drafted him, The full-time shift to CF (which means they think he has the speed and the overall defensive ability to handle CF in Kansas City) adds a lot of value here. The ultimate positive offensive upside is similar to peak Whit Merrifield, maybe with a touch more early power.
8. Michael Massey, 2B, AA Northwest Arkansas.
Massey was an absolute revelation last year, hitting for power and average and keeping his K rate down while playing a really strong 2B. He has a very sweet, short lefthanded stroke. This is another aggressive rating, but Massey has proven himself through a tough minor league assignment already, and the arrow is pointed up.
9. Ben Kudrna, RHP, Rookie Ball
Kudrna is a big, physical specimen with a lot of upside and potential. The fastball and slider are already nearly MLB-level in terms of velocity and movement (command needs work). Kudrna is a guy who, with luck, and health, and good development, could ascend to the top of a rotation.
10. Frank Mozzicato, LHP, Rookie Ball.
Mozzicato has a curveball that suggests he has a feel for spin. If you want to dream, you hope that the next 2-3 years turn the 175 he weighed when drafted into a rock-solid 220/225 and carries with it an increase in fastball velocity from 90-91, sitting 87-88, to 96-97, sitting 93-94. You pair his ability to spin the ball (which also suggests he should be able to easily master a sweeper slider) with that type of fastball velo and a changeup he already has a feel for, and it’s an exciting profile.
He has a little more to go in terms of growing into that projectability than Kudrna, which is why he slots right behind him.
11. Alec Marsh, RHP, AA Northwest Arkansas
Marsh missed a lot of 2021 to injury, but the hard-throwing righthander is another guy who could move quickly once the minor league season starts. He’s undeniably got the stuff of a quality major-league pitcher. The question is if he can master enough command to cash it in. This guy is a great example of TINSTAAPP.
12. Angel Zerpa, LHP, AAA Omaha
Zerpa might quickly outperform this slot. His stuff ticked up in 21 and he ended the season making a start in the majors. He’s nice depth to have, and honestly, I’m a big fan of just throwing numbers at pitching. Zerpa definitely helps create the depth you need to generate a top-notch and reliable home-grown rotation.
13. Maikel Garcia, SS, AA Northwest Arkansas
Garcia is a really intriguing hitter, a righthanded hitter who has a nice combination of contact skills and control of the strike zone (this cousin of Alcides Escobar is less savvy with the glove and more savvy at the plate). The Royals protected him for a reason (he’s on the 40-man).
14. Carter Jensen, C, A ??
Jensen is a local product whose bat will probably push him off C (as well as the Royals depth at that spot throughout the organization). This is a future 1B profile, and a nice one. He makes a lot of loud contact and shows an ability to lift the ball. Should be fun to watch this year.
15. Ben Hernandez, RHP, A+ Quad Rivers
Hernandez missed a good part of 2021 but still has that butterfly changeup and a classic pitcher’s profile. He’ll need to find a reliable swing-and-miss secondary to make it in the bigs, but if not, the fastball velocity and changeup should make him a quality high-leverage reliver.
16. Dylan Coleman, RHP, AAA Omaha
Speaking of relievers, Coleman is a hard-throwing righthander who probably spends most of 22 in the Royals’ pen. ½ of the compensation for the Rosenthal trade a few years back, Coleman has a big fastball and nasty breaking ball.
17. Will Klein, RHP, AA Northwest Arkansas
Speaking of relivers, everything I just said about Coleman? Yeah, you can say it about Klein, too. Klein regularly toyed with hitters at high A last year, striking out 121 hitters in just 70 1/3 innings pitched. For those counting at home, that’s a 15.5 K/9 rate. Yep. That’ll play.
18. Anthony Veneziano, LHP, AA Northwest Arkansas
Here’s another big, power arm. Veneziano hasn’t been relegated to bullpen only yet, though. His fastball bumped into the high 90s last year on a starter’s workload. He’s still looking for a changeup, but if he doesn’t find it, you’re looking at a really promising future bullpen fireballer.
19. Erick Pena, OF, A ?
Pena did… not have a strong 2021 full season debut. His struggles look a lot like those of Pratto and Melendez in 2019. Pena has the same type of raw toolkit to work from as those two, with great hands and natural power. He needs to fix a hitch in his swing and calm it down, but so did Melendez. Of this second ten grouping, Pena has the highest upside and could jump right into the top 5 of the org ranks.
20. Darryl Collins, OF, A+
Collins is an international signing out of Europe. I like the hitting package here – good eye and contact skills. He needs to make more loud contact, but if he can, really a nice guy.
Overall takeaways:
This is a system with a lot of depth. We could go another 10-12 deep and still be talking about guys with a good shot to make the majors. The changes to the organization’s approach are bearing fruit, as even less-heralded draftees are stepping forward.
The combination of upside (Witt, Melendez, Lacy), depth, and guys you can dream on is fun. It may not produce quite as much as the 2011 group did, but it does offer a more sustainable system, less reliant on a few big-ticket guys.
Let’s talk lil Nicky. After last season he ended up with a 4.0 fWAR. But when I looked today it had been massively updated to +6.0. His def was +28 runs and his base running was +8.2 which is insane. It’s the 13th best season in 53 years of Royals history, for position players and about identical to Cain’s 6.1 in 2015.
Looking under the hood tho, it was a mirage. He’s the identical hitter this year by expected data. Expected batting average: .239 last year .236 this. On base? .283 last year vs .286. Slugging? .304 vs .328 this.
Net: Nicky is back to being what he always was, a slightly above replacement player only useable at SS due to his def. He isn’t the .300 hitter of last year [Reply]
Originally Posted by Prison Bitch:
Let’s talk lil Nicky. After last season he ended up with a 4.0 fWAR. But when I looked today it had been massively updated to +6.0. His def was +28 runs and his base running was +8.2 which is insane. It’s the 13th best season in 53 years of Royals history, for position players and about identical to Cain’s 6.1 in 2015.
Looking under the hood tho, it was a mirage. He’s the identical hitter this year by expected data. Expected batting average: .239 last year .236 this. On base? .283 last year vs .286. Slugging? .304 vs .328 this.
Net: Nicky is back to being what he always was, a slightly above replacement player only useable at SS due to his def. He isn’t the .300 hitter of last year
Easy to say this now with the start he has had. To be fair, he started hot and cooled off!
Vinny and Pratto have both earned a chance to be up here at some point.
The problem is where do you put them? Even IF you were to DFA both Santana AND O'Hearn.
Right now you've got a spot at DH or 1B you could use, with Dozier filling the other. But what about when Salvy gets back? And Olivares?
Do you bench Rivera, who seems to be coming around offensively and defensively, push Witt Jr. out of his natural position at SS back to 3B, move Nicky back to SS, Whit back to 2B. That opens up a spot in RF. Melendez needs to be playing every day if he's up here. I guess you could stick him in RF occasionally. He's not playing CF. CF is Isbel's spot till Taylor gets back.
So once Salvy and Olivares are back: you'll have 4 spots to utilize (C, 1B, RF & DH) and you'll have these players that need to be playing pretty much every day: Salvy, MJ, Dozier, Merrifield, Olivares. You could make it work with all 5 by benching Rivera and sliding Merrifield back to 2B. So then you're basically choosing between Rivera and Olivares. Which one do you want playing most of the time?
So, taking all that into account, where do you put Pratto and Vinny if you call them up? Vinny's a DH, period. But you have a lot of guys right now on the big league club that you will need to rotate through that DH spot on a regular basis (Salvy, MJ, Dozier, etc.). That doesn't leave regular playing time for him. And Pratto? You can put him at 1B, but then you run into the Dozier, Salvy, MJ problem of how do you play all 3 every day when you only have C and DH to utilize if Pratto is locking down 1B? And is Pratto's bat ready for The Show? I don't know. Obviously, you'll have to give him a shot at some point. His K% worries me a little, although it's not as high now as it was earlier in the season.
The truth is likely the Royals aren't gonna have room for all these young guys unless they fully commit to a complete youth movement. That means moving on from Merrifield, Dozier, Taylor, etc. I don't see the Royals doing that this year, for several reasons.
All that to say, I don't expect Pratto or Vinny up this year, even IF Santana and O'Hearn were chopped. Why bring them up to have them sit on the bench most of the time? [Reply]
Originally Posted by TomBarndtsTwin:
Vinny and Pratto have both earned a chance to be up here at some point.
The problem is where do you put them? Even IF you were to DFA both Santana AND O'Hearn.
Right now you've got a spot at DH or 1B you could use, with Dozier filling the other. But what about when Salvy gets back? And Olivares?
Do you bench Rivera, who seems to be coming around offensively and defensively, push Witt Jr. out of his natural position at SS back to 3B, move Nicky back to SS, Whit back to 2B. That opens up a spot in RF. Melendez needs to be playing every day if he's up here. I guess you could stick him in RF occasionally. He's not playing CF. CF is Isbel's spot till Taylor gets back.
So once Salvy and Olivares are back: you'll have 4 spots to utilize (C, 1B, RF & DH) and you'll have these players that need to be playing pretty much every day: Salvy, MJ, Dozier, Merrifield, Olivares. You could make it work with all 5 by benching Rivera and sliding Merrifield back to 2B. So then you're basically choosing between Rivera and Olivares. Which one do you want playing most of the time?
So, taking all that into account, where do you put Pratto and Vinny if you call them up? Vinny's a DH, period. But you have a lot of guys right now on the big league club that you will need to rotate through that DH spot on a regular basis (Salvy, MJ, Dozier, etc.). That doesn't leave regular playing time for him. And Pratto? You can put him at 1B, but then you run into the Dozier, Salvy, MJ problem of how do you play all 3 every day when you only have C and DH to utilize if Pratto is locking down 1B? And is Pratto's bat ready for The Show? I don't know. Obviously, you'll have to give him a shot at some point. His K% worries me a little, although it's not as high now as it was earlier in the season.
The truth is likely the Royals aren't gonna have room for all these young guys unless they fully commit to a complete youth movement. That means moving on from Merrifield, Dozier, Taylor, etc. I don't see the Royals doing that this year, for several reasons.
All that to say, I don't expect Pratto or Vinny up this year, even IF Santana and O'Hearn were chopped. Why bring them up to have them sit on the bench most of the time?
Pratto has been playing the OF the last two days. Perhaps getting ready for a Benintendi trade.
BTW, Vinnie just hit another double. 4-for-5 today with 2 HRs, 2 2Bs.
Well, a Beni trade would partially solve one issue.
But you still have the Vinny problem. He's gonna hit up here, not worried about that, but he will basically be your everyday DH once he's up here. And the Royals have too many guys to rotate through that DH spot right now. AND he's also not on the 40 man roster currently (yes, that part could be taken care of pretty easily by DFA either Santana or O'Hearn).
I just don't see him getting regular playing time up here this year unless there are a LOT of moves (DFAing aforementioned two, trading Beni AND Whit, etc.) [Reply]
Originally Posted by Prison Bitch:
The batted ball profile says we are getting the exact same Nicky we always had. The one last year just had a lot of luck.
I have a hunch we will eventually get an average Nicky, somewhere between the bad and the good Nicky.
Later this year if not traded I see the Royals moving on from Santana and O'Hearn.
I think we will trade Benny and Dozier and maybe even entertain offers on Merrifield.
We have to play the kids and see if they can handle the major league level! [Reply]
Originally Posted by TomBarndtsTwin:
Well, a Beni trade would partially solve one issue.
But you still have the Vinny problem. He's gonna hit up here, not worried about that, but he will basically be your everyday DH once he's up here. And the Royals have too many guys to rotate through that DH spot right now. AND he's also not on the 40 man roster currently (yes, that part could be taken care of pretty easily by DFA either Santana or O'Hearn).
I just don't see him getting regular playing time up here this year unless there are a LOT of moves (DFAing aforementioned two, trading Beni AND Whit, etc.)
Vinnie profiles as an everyday DH, but he doesn't have to be. He can be the starting 1B. That leaves DH open for Salvy and MJ to share.
Dozier becomes a bench player. He's having a decent year, but he's also 30 (turns 31 in August). [Reply]
Originally Posted by TomBarndtsTwin:
Vinny and Pratto have both earned a chance to be up here at some point.
The problem is where do you put them? Even IF you were to DFA both Santana AND O'Hearn.
Right now you've got a spot at DH or 1B you could use, with Dozier filling the other. But what about when Salvy gets back? And Olivares?
Do you bench Rivera, who seems to be coming around offensively and defensively, push Witt Jr. out of his natural position at SS back to 3B, move Nicky back to SS, Whit back to 2B. That opens up a spot in RF. Melendez needs to be playing every day if he's up here. I guess you could stick him in RF occasionally. He's not playing CF. CF is Isbel's spot till Taylor gets back.
So once Salvy and Olivares are back: you'll have 4 spots to utilize (C, 1B, RF & DH) and you'll have these players that need to be playing pretty much every day: Salvy, MJ, Dozier, Merrifield, Olivares. You could make it work with all 5 by benching Rivera and sliding Merrifield back to 2B. So then you're basically choosing between Rivera and Olivares. Which one do you want playing most of the time?
So, taking all that into account, where do you put Pratto and Vinny if you call them up? Vinny's a DH, period. But you have a lot of guys right now on the big league club that you will need to rotate through that DH spot on a regular basis (Salvy, MJ, Dozier, etc.). That doesn't leave regular playing time for him. And Pratto? You can put him at 1B, but then you run into the Dozier, Salvy, MJ problem of how do you play all 3 every day when you only have C and DH to utilize if Pratto is locking down 1B? And is Pratto's bat ready for The Show? I don't know. Obviously, you'll have to give him a shot at some point. His K% worries me a little, although it's not as high now as it was earlier in the season.
The truth is likely the Royals aren't gonna have room for all these young guys unless they fully commit to a complete youth movement. That means moving on from Merrifield, Dozier, Taylor, etc. I don't see the Royals doing that this year, for several reasons.
All that to say, I don't expect Pratto or Vinny up this year, even IF Santana and O'Hearn were chopped. Why bring them up to have them sit on the bench most of the time?
Sadly this team is not in position to compete in the next two years with the current roster build. Benintendi, Merrifield, Dozier, and sadly even Salvy need to be on the trade block. Trade whichever two bring the best return of prospects (and not Major League ready "talent"). I'd also throw in Mondesi for any promising bullpen arm that is above replacement level. [Reply]