So there's an article on NFL network saying that Orlando Brown is expected to sign for 6 years $145 mil.
That comes to $24.16 mil/yr and makes him the highest paid offensive lineman in football. It also would give him the 19th highest salary per year in the NFL
How would you feel if that is the contract he ended up signing?
I'm fine with it. He is a top 5 LT and he's only 26 next season. A young great LT is a guy you can't let leave. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
Bottom line is that Kolten Miller just extended on a 3 year, $54 million deal. Brown had an opportunity to extend for 5/$95 so he's tacking on 2 'team' options at roughly $20.5 million on the back of Miller's deal.
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I don’t know what Brown Jr is expecting here? It’s a 5-6 year contract. In this league it’s a terrible idea to not have team options at the end of those contracts to protect the team.
He’ll be in his 30’s, he could have a devastating injury (see Justin Houston and Eric Berry) or he could be a lazy POS like Frank Clark. It was incredibly stupid to not sign that.
So now you’ve made it clear that you want to prove yourself in a contract with more money but it will have the 5th and 6th years again as team options. There’s no changing that. No team is stupid enough to not do that. So he’s effective done nothing but put more risk on himself to miss out.
He better hope he doesn’t land the wrong way, have someone fall on his leg the wrong way or just plain tear an Achilles due to bad luck or he’s fucked. [Reply]
Originally Posted by ChiefGator:
Is that his agent or something?
I think what they did was throw away the inflated last year on the OBJ contract and NOT throw it out on all the other contracts, and then compared them.
This is common practice, so you would need to do the contracts on all those seven LT's being paid more than him.
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
That's not a terribly fair analysis from Garafolo (and reads like an agent leak because of it...).
"Well if you take the funny money at the back of the deal out for Brown but DON'T subtract it for everyone else, Brown comes in 8th..."
The AAVs he's referencing are on long-term deals that include inflated figures at the back - as they ALL do in the NFL. Williams deal is no different in that regard.
So no, you can't just compare the 'first 5 years before the fake money' to the entire AAV of anyone else's contract and come to a conclusion.
Bottom line is that Kolten Miller just extended on a 3 year, $54 million deal. Brown had an opportunity to extend for 5/$95 so he's tacking on 2 'team' options at roughly $20.5 million on the back of Miller's deal.
I'd say that's an exceptionally fair offer from the Chiefs. The Chiefs came correct here and Brown either 1) doesn't have a reasonable handle on his value or 2) simply wanted to bet on himself.
And as to the 2nd possibility - that's fine. I have no problem with that. Provided he's in here on Day 1 of camp ready to PROVE that he's worth that kind of money. Because to date he has not and offering him a similar sort of 'real' money deal as Miller got was more than appropriate.
Thanks for pointing that out. I am not aware of the figures for other top LT contracts if you throw out that final year. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
That's not a terribly fair analysis from Garafolo (and reads like an agent leak because of it...).
"Well if you take the funny money at the back of the deal out for Brown but DON'T subtract it for everyone else, Brown comes in 8th..."
The AAVs he's referencing are on long-term deals that include inflated figures at the back - as they ALL do in the NFL. Williams deal is no different in that regard.
So no, you can't just compare the 'first 5 years before the fake money' to the entire AAV of anyone else's contract and come to a conclusion.
Bottom line is that Kolten Miller just extended on a 3 year, $54 million deal. Brown had an opportunity to extend for 5/$95 so he's tacking on 2 'team' options at roughly $20.5 million on the back of Miller's deal.
I'd say that's an exceptionally fair offer from the Chiefs. The Chiefs came correct here and Brown either 1) doesn't have a reasonable handle on his value or 2) simply wanted to bet on himself.
And as to the 2nd possibility - that's fine. I have no problem with that. Provided he's in here on Day 1 of camp ready to PROVE that he's worth that kind of money. Because to date he has not and offering him a similar sort of 'real' money deal as Miller got was more than appropriate.
And as it stands right now….he’s weighing being at camp at all. Dude better hit the ground running week 1 or he can kiss that contract good bye. [Reply]
Originally Posted by TwistedChief:
Who cares what your contract says about average pay if you’re not going to get your final year? It was the definition of funny money which is why you can’t just look at AAV.
Here - I’ll guarantee you can come work for me. I’ll pay you a million dollars for the next year. You work the first 6m for $1 and then I have an option to keep you at $999,999 for the 6m following.
You can brag to all of your friends that you’re getting paid $1mm dollars!
That’s the way all of these contracts are, especially for contracts longer than 4 years. And thank God it’s set up that way.
Do you see what Frank Clark’s contract has done to us? How about Justin Houston? Eric Berry?
This is a violent game and you have to have protection for your team, especially when you have a half billion dollar QB on your payroll.
Like I said this is for every player with a huge contract that long. Look at Trent Williams. His base salary in year 5 is $22.5 million and 32 million in year 6. You think he’s seeing that?
Patrick Mahomes contract is a team option starting in 2026. There’s zero dead money on the last 6 years of his deal. That’s the way these contracts are. [Reply]
Originally Posted by RunKC:
He better hope he doesn’t land the wrong way, have someone fall on his leg the wrong way or just plain tear an Achilles due to bad luck or he’s fucked.
He’s started 64 of the potential 65 regular season games in his career. He played alongside Ronnie Stanley who signed a big deal and then two days later got injured in a way that made that contract look like a gift from the heavens.
The guy is not an idiot. He knows the risks. Stop pretending like you remotely care about his well-being just because you’re upset he didn’t sign a long-term deal with your team. You know who benefits if he gets injured on the franchise tag? Hint: the Chiefs. Massively.
He thinks he deserves more. Maybe because he thinks he can play better than he did this past season. Let him take that risk and be at peace with it. [Reply]
Originally Posted by RunKC:
Like I said this is for every player with a huge contract that long. Look at Trent Williams. His base salary in year 5 is $22.5 million and 32 million in year 6. You think he’s seeing that?
Obviously, dude. I get it. But it looks like that 6th year on the Brown deal might be something like 43mm. That’s the point. It’s irrelevant. The numbers for the first several years didn’t work. The whole ‘highest AAV’ thing is a total charade. [Reply]
Originally Posted by RunKC:
I don’t know what Brown Jr is expecting here? It’s a 5-6 year contract. In this league it’s a terrible idea to not have team options at the end of those contracts to protect the team.
He’ll be in his 30’s, he could have a devastating injury (see Justin Houston and Eric Berry) or he could be a lazy POS like Frank Clark. It was incredibly stupid to not sign that.
So now you’ve made it clear that you want to prove yourself in a contract with more money but it will have the 5th and 6th years again as team options. There’s no changing that. No team is stupid enough to not do that. So he’s effective done nothing but put more risk on himself to miss out.
He better hope he doesn’t land the wrong way, have someone fall on his leg the wrong way or just plain tear an Achilles due to bad luck or he’s fucked.
We don't know much about the contract, but it really could be little more than additional guarantees in years 3 and 4.
Let's say it's a $30 million signing bonus that pays $95 million over 5 years (the 6th year doesn't matter for this discussion, not even on the cap pro-ration). So you're looking at $6 million/season in cap charges.
So if he's bad after year 2 you can cut him after June 1, put $6 million on the 2024 cap and $12 million on the 2025 cap. It wouldn't be a lot of fun, but it is a legit possibility.
So figuring on year 1 being a relatively low salary - lets say $5 million for the sake of easy math. When combined w/ the $30 million in bonus that leaves 4 years to get $60 million in salary.
so let's presume 5 - 10 - 13 - 16 - 21 in salaries in years 1-5 w/ a signing bonus of $30 million to get to your $95 million.
If you cut him after year two, you take a $6 dead charge and $12 million the following season and that's your only cap hits for him. Vs. $19 million and 22 million on the roster. $18 million in dead money vs. $41 million in total cap charges? Yeah - I'd say that kind of structure effectively a 2 year deal with a relatively expensive but ultimately doable escape clause.
My guess is he wanted additional guarantees in year 3 at least. Maybe one of those 'early' triggers for guaranteed salary where his '24 salary of $13 million becomes fully guaranteed on the 3rd day of the 2023 league year. The Chiefs know they couldn't cut him prior to that because the dead charges would be staggering. So it would effectively guarantee that $13 million salary in year 3.
But what makes me wonder about that a little, and why it doesn't make a ton of sense to turn down even if it looks like that - lets say he gets cut after year 2 (his worst case scenario - and the Chiefs). He'll have made $45 million in those 2 years. Vs. the $36 million he'll make on 2 tag seasons.
Again, it's pretty speculative, but it wouldn't surprise me if that was his angle. But I still think when the Chiefs called his bluff, he should've signed the deal. There's just not much downside in it for him. [Reply]
