ChiefsPlanet Mobile
Page 869 of 3903
« First < 369769819859865866867868869 87087187287387991996913691869 > Last »
Nzoner's Game Room>***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***
JakeF 10:28 PM 02-26-2020
A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

[Reply]
Chief Roundup 04:54 PM 03-28-2020
Originally Posted by KCChiefsFan88:
Since most people in NYC live in apartments/condominiums how is it possible to realistically prevent the airborne spread of the virus among individual apartment/condo units?

If one unit has a person infected with COVID-19 wouldn’t the virus spread through the air ducts to other units?
No each unit has its own duct system. Depending on the set up they might and emphasize might share pipe that would have hot and cold water running through them from boilers and chillers.
[Reply]
Donger 04:58 PM 03-28-2020
Originally Posted by AustinChief:
(Just to be clear I am ONLY concerned with US Covid data, hence why I only used US flu data)

Based on common sense reading of the available data. There are of course some "ifs" that go into it... here are the facts and ifs that lead me to believe in a fairly low (but higher than the flu) CFR.

IF The experts are correct that 50-80% of cases can go completely unnoticed.
IF The majority of people being tested and going into the data pool are the ones with the most severe symptoms (and celebrities)
FACT The disease has been in the US since early January and went unchecked with no social distancing or other controls for 6 weeks +
FACT Our current CFR is running around 1.5%
FACT That 1.5% is a current MAX. You almost always catch the deaths but with a disease like this you may be missing most of the cases.
IF You reasonably assume that there are at least 5 times as many cases in the wild as we are currently seeing numbers for... you can assume that the actual CFR is .3%

These aren't really pie in the sky assumptions.

Of course, things could change at any time but this is based on our current situation.
I don't disagree with this, but I'd add that we are pretty early in. The death rate is going up strongly now (as it should), along with new case growth. Don't get me wrong; I hope you're right. I had hoped that we'd have a few hundred thousand cases and maybe 10,000 or fewer deaths. Maybe we will.

What I still don't get is why SARS v1.0 is so different than v2.0. It "only" infected 8,000 worldwide and killed 800 (talk about a CFR). We had 27 cases and no fatalities.
[Reply]
Donger 04:59 PM 03-28-2020
Originally Posted by KCChiefsFan88:
Since most people in NYC live in apartments/condominiums how is it possible to realistically prevent the airborne spread of the virus among individual apartment/condo units?

If one unit has a person infected with COVID-19 wouldn’t the virus spread through the air ducts to other units?
No. There's no evidence that SARS-CoV-2 is airborne.
[Reply]
2112 04:59 PM 03-28-2020
Originally Posted by KCChiefsFan88:
Since most people in NYC live in apartments/condominiums how is it possible to realistically prevent the airborne spread of the virus among individual apartment/condo units?

If one unit has a person infected with COVID-19 wouldn’t the virus spread through the air ducts to other units?
Most people in nyc commute in the subway (which is still open) that’s the quickest way to spread it. And they’re not cleaning the trains.
[Reply]
AustinChief 05:00 PM 03-28-2020
Originally Posted by cdcox:
If you look at confirmed cases from the 22nd (33,592) and consider that only 10% of the cases are discovered, the calculation yields a CRF of 0.006 (0.6%), which I consider my (NOT AN EXPERT) lower bound of the CFR.
That's reasonable.

Something else that gets often overlooked is that there is a certain percentage of the population that is immune either through natural immunity or recovery.

If that percentage is .001% then it doesn't matter, but given that the disease has run wild for quite awhile, that figure could be significantly higher. We have absolutely no clue.

We need to focus on serology testing if we want to truly get ahead of things. That should have been the focus from the start.
[Reply]
O.city 05:03 PM 03-28-2020
Originally Posted by Donger:
I don't disagree with this, but I'd add that we are pretty early in. The death rate is going up strongly now (as it should), along with new case growth. Don't get me wrong; I hope you're right. I had hoped that we'd have a few hundred thousand cases and maybe 10,000 or fewer deaths. Maybe we will.

What I still don't get is why SARS v1.0 is so different than v2.0. It "only" infected 8,000 worldwide and killed 800 (talk about a CFR). We had 27 cases and no fatalities.
With SARS, you weren't contagious unless you were showing symptoms. So you knew you could isolate and keep the spread down.
[Reply]
petegz28 05:04 PM 03-28-2020
Originally Posted by O.city:
With SARS, you weren't contagious unless you were showing symptoms. So you knew you could isolate and keep the spread down.
And we still lost 16,000 people. Sorry, that's H1N1 I am thinking of....
[Reply]
AustinChief 05:04 PM 03-28-2020
Originally Posted by Donger:
I don't disagree with this, but I'd add that we are pretty early in. The death rate is going up strongly now (as it should), along with new case growth. Don't get me wrong; I hope you're right. I had hoped that we'd have a few hundred thousand cases and maybe 10,000 or fewer deaths. Maybe we will.

What I still don't get is why SARS v1.0 is so different than v2.0. It "only" infected 8,000 worldwide and killed 800 (talk about a CFR). We had 27 cases and no fatalities.
One theory is that it down-mutated to a less fatal form.. which is entirely possible that we could see the same thing happen here.
[Reply]
cdcox 05:05 PM 03-28-2020
Originally Posted by KCChiefsFan88:
Since most people in NYC live in apartments/condominiums how is it possible to realistically prevent the airborne spread of the virus among individual apartment/condo units?

If one unit has a person infected with COVID-19 wouldn’t the virus spread through the air ducts to other units?
The recommendation is to not recirculate air at the present time. Once the air is collected to the return duct, it should be vented to the outside and fresh air brought in. I have no idea whether apartment superintendents are following this recommendation.

https://www.rehva.eu/fileadmin/user_...-17_final2.pdf
[Reply]
O.city 05:08 PM 03-28-2020
Originally Posted by AustinChief:
One theory is that it down-mutated to a less fatal form.. which is entirely possible that we could see the same thing happen here.
Viruses never mutate to more virulent forms. It would be to their detriment.
[Reply]
Donger 05:08 PM 03-28-2020
Originally Posted by O.city:
With SARS, you weren't contagious unless you were showing symptoms. So you knew you could isolate and keep the spread down.
Ah, I see. But it still had an R0 of 2 to 3.
[Reply]
cdcox 05:08 PM 03-28-2020
Originally Posted by AustinChief:
That's reasonable.

Something else that gets often overlooked is that there is a certain percentage of the population that is immune either through natural immunity or recovery.

If that percentage is .001% then it doesn't matter, but given that the disease has run wild for quite awhile, that figure could be significantly higher. We have absolutely no clue.

We need to focus on serology testing if we want to truly get ahead of things. That should have been the focus from the start.
I read somewhere in this thread that they were starting that in Miami. I agree that it would shed a ton of light on the course of the disease and when we could start returning to normal.
[Reply]
O.city 05:09 PM 03-28-2020
Originally Posted by Donger:
Ah, I see. But it still had an R0 of 2 to 3.
That wasn't as big of a deal because you knew who was sick and they couldn't spread it until they were actually sick.

This is where SARS COV 2 is different.
[Reply]
O.city 05:10 PM 03-28-2020
Originally Posted by cdcox:
I read somewhere in this thread that they were starting that in Miami. I agree that it would shed a ton of light on the course of the disease and when we could start returning to normal.
They're doing a whole town in Colorado last I read.

I said it a few days ago but the COVID 19 reddit page is great for info.
[Reply]
PAChiefsGuy 05:10 PM 03-28-2020
Good interview with Bill Gates about the CoronaVirus

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iNLiUN0l7ws
[Reply]
Page 869 of 3903
« First < 369769819859865866867868869 87087187287387991996913691869 > Last »
Up