Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
It’s a very nuanced discussion though, which means, not well suited for chiefsplanet. :-)
It's almost a no-brainer. Care facilities, meat packing plants and prisons are the highest clusters. 70+ is by far the largest group for deaths. I think you split or do your best to balance between healthcare workers and 70+.
Get the 70+ taken care of and the death rate will drop exponentially. Then start getting everyone else done and the cases will start to drop. [Reply]
Originally Posted by O.city:
Inoculating the essential workers and such would be the best way and fastest way to keep the economy going while you are building up vaccines for everyone.
Seems like that would be what everyone whose biggest concern was the economy and such would prefer
Look at it like this...essential workers have come this far doing fairly well. Knock out the deaths and I think you the easing for the economy will start based off that alone.
It's a 6-1 to a degree but I can see where getting the death count down takes away a great deal of the fear factor. [Reply]
Originally Posted by O.city:
Spending trends down as people hunker down when cases and hospitals and such are what they are.
It’s a tough unique situation on that discussion.
I agree. But if the death count starts to drop thus shedding light on the fact that most people will not die I think people will hunker down less.
Right now I think we can agree the death rate is largely due in part to 70+ individuals. But when someone just sees 3,000 people died today they don't stop to break it down. [Reply]
Originally Posted by petegz28:
I agree. But if the death count starts to drop thus shedding light on the fact that most people will not die I think people will hunker down less.
Right now I think we can agree the death rate is largely due in part to 70+ individuals. But when someone just sees 3,000 people died today they don't stop to break it down.
It’s not just “die be don’t die”
People don’t want to get sick, have people around them sick. Until they feel safe it’ll be slow going.
Which is why the vaccine and such is such a big deal [Reply]
Originally Posted by O.city:
It’s not just “die be don’t die”
People don’t want to get sick, have people around them sick. Until they feel safe it’ll be slow going.
Which is why the vaccine and such is such a big deal
I agree but I think the death count is the primary reason people are hunkering down. Let's just say when I talk to people who are afraid of this "getting sick" isn't usually what they are afraid of, it's dying. [Reply]
Originally Posted by petegz28:
I agree but I think the death count is the primary reason people are hunkering down. Let's just say when I talk to people who are afraid of this "getting sick" isn't usually what they are afraid of, it's dying.
Gotta get sick before you’re gonna die from it [Reply]
Originally Posted by O.city:
Inoculating the essential workers and such would be the best way and fastest way to keep the economy going while you are building up vaccines for everyone.
Seems like that would be what everyone whose biggest concern was the economy and such would prefer
At this point, the economy is what it is. I don't think anything is going to keep things going because politicians have way too much invested in making sure everything continues to crawl, vaccine or no. [Reply]
It’s a very nuanced discussion though, which means, not well suited for chiefsplanet. :-)
There is a very real theory that says vaccinating the people who aren't hunkered down in nursing homes etc...is the fastest way to herd immunity.
People confined to their homes aren't spreading covid, the people still doing every day jobs as mundane as stocking shelves in grocery stores are a larger risk of spread.
The faster you stop spread the faster this goes away.
So priority would go health workers first then everyone else. If you vaccinate all the hospital and nursing home care givers that should stop that spread there, then you go on to everyone else still moving around out in the community. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Marcellus:
There is a very real theory that says vaccinating the people who aren't hunkered down in nursing homes etc...is the fastest way to herd immunity.
People confined to their homes aren't spreading covid, the people still doing every day jobs as mundane as stocking shelves in grocery stores are a larger risk of spread.
The faster you stop spread the faster this goes away.
So priority would go health workers first then everyone else. If you vaccinate all the hospital and nursing home care givers that should stop that spread there, then you go on to everyone else still moving around out in the community.
Like I said, it's a very nuanced conversation. It's not black and white.
For instance, the people in nursing homes are getting it from people coming in and out, not hte people already there. So vaccinate the workers and such.
The elderly get hit hard and thats where a large portion of deaths come from, but they aren't exactly super spreaders and such. The younger handle it better, but they spread it more.
Originally Posted by O.city:
Like I said, it's a very nuanced conversation. It's not black and white.
The elderly get hit hard and thats where a large portion of deaths come from, but they aren't exactly super spreaders and such. The younger handle it better, but they spread it more.
It's a tough situation.
Yeah, there's no "right" answer. I personally think it makes sense to drop the death rate first and slow the spread second, but one could argue that you'd accomplish the former with the latter.
I bet someone could create a model for it that we could all debate the accuracy of. :-) [Reply]
Good news on the vaccine quantity front. Assuming manufacturing capacity doesn't become a problem, Pfizer and Moderna combined should let us vaccinate 200 million people by early summer.
NEW: The Trump administration and Pfizer have reached a deal to supply an additional 100 million doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine for the U.S. by the end of July, bringing the total to 200 million doses that will vaccinate 100 million Americans. https://t.co/twaXPHiRnX
I'm kind of tentatively targeting the 4th of July as a "pop the champagne" return to normalcy. It would be great if summer celebrations could help us all feel like we're through this thing. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DaFace:
Good news on the vaccine quantity front. Assuming manufacturing capacity doesn't become a problem, Pfizer and Moderna combined should let us vaccinate 200 million people by early summer.
NEW: The Trump administration and Pfizer have reached a deal to supply an additional 100 million doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine for the U.S. by the end of July, bringing the total to 200 million doses that will vaccinate 100 million Americans. https://t.co/twaXPHiRnX
I'm kind of tentatively targeting the 4th of July as a "pop the champagne" return to normalcy. It would be great if summer celebrations could help us all feel like we're through this thing.
