Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins:
I think they're going about this the right way given limited resources. If they can flatten the curve, they can likely perform a large antibody test on a large, random sample that will have both the specificity and sensitivity we need. However, given that hospital occupancy is demonstrating/ near exponential growth, it is highly unlikely there was large community spread prior to late February.
So in your opinion if NYC would have taken my approach from the start as opposed to the approach they took, they would not have a greater sense of the spread? [Reply]
Originally Posted by kgrund:
So in your opinion if NYC would have taken my approach from the start as opposed to the approach they took, they would not have a greater sense of the spread?
I don't think they could have based on the paucity of tests and their poor sensitivity. [Reply]
Originally Posted by TLO:
Was just reading through the article again where it states up to 50% of people may be asymptomatic.
In a way that's good, but in a way it's really bad. I just don't know..
That's why I think a more strategically targeted social distancing approach would work.
If at least 50% of people with COVID-19 are asymptomatic... part of the 80% of people with the virus with no or minimal symptoms... why not target the social distancing to the people we know who are most at risk of complications?
Elderly and people with underlying health conditions. [Reply]
Originally Posted by KCChiefsFan88:
That's why I think a more strategically targeted social distancing approach would work.
If at least 50% of people with COVID-19 are asymptomatic... part of the 80% of people with the virus with no or minimal symptoms... why not target the social distancing to the people we know who are most at risk of complications?
Elderly and people with underlying health conditions.
Originally Posted by KCChiefsFan88:
That's why I think a more strategically targeted social distancing approach would work.
If at least 50% of people with COVID-19 are asymptomatic... part of the 80% of people with the virus with no or minimal symptoms... why not target the social distancing to the people we know who are most at risk of complications?
Elderly and people with underlying health conditions.
Because hospitalization rates would not be sustainable with that degree of spread. Everyone in a hospital now was likely infected in Mid-March. With a virus that spreads exponentially, you aren't going to be able to adequately tamp down cases and the asymptomatic and those free to roam will still come into contact with the at-risk population at home, in care facilities, etc [Reply]
Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins:
Because hospitalization rates would not be sustainable with that degree of spread. Everyone in a hospital now was likely infected in Mid-March. With a virus that spreads exponentially, you aren't going to be able to adequately tamp down cases and the asymptomatic and those free to roam will still come into contact with the at-risk population at home, in care facilities, etc
My issue is, i just don't see the way out of this. You can't lock things down for that long, economically and such. People just can't do it. So what happens when you start opening back up? It's gonna spike again. [Reply]
Originally Posted by KCChiefsFan88:
That's why I think a more strategically targeted social distancing approach would work.
If at least 50% of people with COVID-19 are asymptomatic... part of the 80% of people with the virus with no or minimal symptoms... why not target the social distancing to the people we know who are most at risk of complications?
Elderly and people with underlying health conditions.
That other 50% is a large, large amount of people. [Reply]
Originally Posted by O.city:
My issue is, i just don't see the way out of this. You can't lock things down for that long, economically and such. People just can't do it. So what happens when you start opening back up? It's gonna spike again.
You stamp out the fire. Then, once the main blaze hasn't overwhelmed you, you can ease back.
What you don't do is move back into the house while the fire is still spreading.
You post a lot of stuff from Gottlieb. This is the plan he worked on with AEI. [Reply]
Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins:
You stamp out the fire. Then, once the main blaze hasn't overwhelmed you, you can ease back.
What you don't do is move back into the house while the fire is still spreading.
You post a lot of stuff from Gottlieb. This is the plan he worked on with AEI.
Yeah, his model is the best i've found. He's a really intelligent cat. It will work. But my question is whether we can have those systems in place to track it that quickly.
My biggest path forward thought is the therapeutics. I think prophylactic antibodies is the way it's gonna go. There's some interesting stuff with some of the small molecule stuff, but damn it's just hard to mass produce. [Reply]
Originally Posted by petegz28:
okay so if nothing changed then why are 10 million people suddenly out of work, you can't go to see a movie or eat in a restaurant, you can't go to the gym, my kid can't go to school and there isn't a fucking bottle of hand sanatizer in any grocery store in the country?
Because even with those measures in place, people are still out and about everywhere and doing what ever....and the numbers keep climbing and climbing.... [Reply]
