https://theathletic.com/724036/2018/...s-city-chiefs/
Deuce Windham & Seth Keysor
With the 2018 NFL season in its final weeks, most pundits and analysts have narrowed the MVP race to two players: thrill-a-minute quarterback Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs and age-defying, future first-ballot Hall of Famer Drew Brees of the New Orleans Saints. The Athletic‘s Seth Keysor, who covers the Chiefs, and Deuce Windham, who covers the Saints, went through both players’ tape to more fully explain how each is having an MVP-worthy season.
Windham:
For me, the most exciting aspect of this year’s MVP race is we have almost a changing of the guard. Brees is one of the greatest quarterbacks to ever play, but he’s also at the end of his career. I’d be surprised if he’s playing past 2019. On the other hand, we have Mahomes, whom Sean Payton actually wanted to draft before the Chiefs grabbed him. It’s a battle of the wily vet with wisdom and understanding against the first-year starter with his impressive physical abilities and ability to wow the crowd.
Something that has always set Drew apart is his accuracy. More correctly, his ball placement. He’s always been able to hit tight windows and put balls in spots where his receiver is in the best position to make a play. Of the five most accurate seasons in NFL history, Brees has four of them. If he continues on his pace from this season (74.9 percent accuracy), he’ll once again break his own record. I know that a few critics have tried to argue that his accuracy numbers are inflated by short passes, but statistically, he ranks near the top in intermediate and deep passes every year. For his career, he has a 7.6-yards-per-attempt average, and for this season alone that mark is currently at 8.1 yards per attempt. For reference, Peyton Manning, who is tied for fifth all-time in completion percentage, had a career yards per attempt of 7.7. Chad Pennington, who is second all-time, is at 7.2.
Here’s an example of Brees reading the defense and delivering in a tight window. The Eagles are playing the safety shaded to Michael Thomas’ side with a corner in man coverage. What makes this throw even more impressive is that Brees is throwing to a spot he can’t necessarily see because of the offensive and defensive lines in front of him. Touch like this is one of the many tools that have made him so dominant in the league, year in and year out.
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Keysor:
I couldn’t agree more about the league being headed toward a radical shift. Brees, Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers are all still great (with Brees the best of the three this season), but for the first time in years it feels like a quarterback revolution is coming. Or maybe it’s already here, because Mahomes has done nothing short of turn the league on its head this season.
He’s like nothing the league has ever seen. He does things that no other quarterback can do with any consistency. I’m glad you brought up ball placement and accuracy because, without a doubt, Brees is the most accurate quarterback in the NFL. No one can touch him there at basically every level of the field. Mahomes is another animal entirely, though, making throws with unbelievable precision into windows that just don’t exist for any other quarterback. He’s so unique that the way he plays leads to pundits complaining that he’s not “safe” enough, when the reality is he’s perfectly safe, it’s just that no one else would be safe making the throws he makes into the tiniest of windows from all platforms.
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This is a throw no other quarterback in the league should even attempt. Mahomes faces immediate pressure that forces him to bail on the pocket, and the Raiders have good initial coverage on the play. However, as Mahomes drifts to his right, he sees tight end Demetrius Harris running across the end zone between three defenders. Given the placement of the zone coverage and the direction Harris is running, not to mention that Mahomes is on the move, a throw looks impossible. Unless, of course, you’re an alien who can sling the ball with unbelievable zip while off platform. Then, it’s an option.
What really goes unnoticed with all the accolades for Mahomes’ arm (and on a play like this, how could people not focus on that?) is how smart he is with ball placement. He puts it low and behind Harris, a spot where what should be a risky throw becomes one that only his receiver can catch. Not only is he taking the risk on difficult throws, but he’s also completing his passes at a 67.1 percent tick, good for 12th in the league this year. This play is Mahomes in a nutshell: making impossible throws possible.
Windham:
Man, just watching that play over and over, and you’re right, it’s not a throw most quarterbacks should attempt. In many ways, he’s breaking the “rules” of quarterbacking. Throwing against his body, on the move, into a tight window. One of the things that make individual players great, in my opinion, is that they’re able to play outside the normal expectations we have. Those rules I spoke of earlier, well, it’s the willingness to take the extra risk and pull it off that has defined a lot of greats across sports. To see a player as young as Mahomes already excelling when taking those risks is just really fun.
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I was torn on which example to show here, as there are some things Mahomes can do (and is willing to do) that Brees can’t (or isn’t always willing to do). An area where Brees does have a slight edge on Mahomes is his ability to process what defenses are doing, both pre- and post-snap, and then play the role of sniper.
In another play against the Eagles, Brees starts by drawing the safety to his left with his eyes, drawing down the linebacker and the nickel back by focusing to the flat, and then delivering one of the best placement passes you’ll see all season. It goes through four defenders and arrives in a spot that not only gives only his receiver a chance to catch it but also protects the receiver by allowing him to catch and brace for the hit right at the goal line. Different method, but same effect, and this type of manipulation comes with years of experience. Both plays are simply fantastic examples of what makes both of these quarterbacks so good.
At this point in Brees’ career, it’s unlikely you’ll show him a look he hasn’t seen countless times before. While Mahomes is incredible at extending the play and delivering eye-popping throws, sometimes a more subtle approach is warranted.
Keysor:
You definitely raise a good point about recognition. Right now, Mahomes is handicapped in any contest regarding pre-snap reads because, as you mentioned, he just hasn’t seen as much as Brees at this point. There’s no substitute for experience, and defenses can still throw stuff at Mahomes that he’s never faced or has only looked at a few times. That’s going to lead to some lag in pre-snap recognition, particularly when it comes to picking up blitzes. It’s something he can’t do as well as a veteran.
That means Mahomes has to make it work without that same edge before the snap. Fortunately for the Chiefs, there might not be anyone in the league who does more after the snap than Mahomes. He might not be Brees in terms of knowing where blitzes are coming from or what defenses are doing before the snap, but he’s right there at the top of the league when it comes to recognizing where defenses are going once the ball is snapped and manipulating them with his eyes and body. At times, it’s as though he sees the field moving in slow motion. This allows him to figure out where openings will be on defense before they even exist and to throw with more anticipation than other, much more experienced quarterbacks.
Here, Mahomes is able to confirm post-snap where the defenders are going with just a quick glance to his left. He knows that he has the human blur, Tyreek Hill, threatening the defense deep and that he’ll be stopping on a dime at the front of the end zone. He also gauges where the safeties are and the leverage the poor underneath linebacker has. On the surface, Hill is bracketed and there’s not much of an opportunity to throw to him, as he’ll be surrounded by defenders. But Mahomes sees how this will play out in advance, and starts to throw the ball before Hill even comes out of his break.
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That kind of anticipation is something that sets Mahomes apart from most young quarterbacks and is why he’s able to get by with a second-year player’s inexperience. But beyond that, for Mahomes, pre-snap reads don’t matter as much. That sounds like an absurd statement, but it’s the truth. The reality is Mahomes isn’t bound by what happens in the endless chess match of offense vs. defense. He renders those things irrelevant by being the best creator in the league. Mahomes has the unique ability to take a loss and turn it into a win for the offense, regardless of protection or route combinations against the coverage. The example most people remember came against the Ravens.
This is a play Mahomes has no right to make. It’s fourth-and-nine, and the Chiefs are desperate. The Ravens play good initial coverage, as they have all day, threatening blitz and dropping multiple players into zone coverage. In the meantime, the Ravens are able to generate pressure relatively quickly, as Mahomes’ right guard and left tackle just can’t hold up. This forces Mahomes to bail out to the right. For literally every other quarterback in the league besides a healthy Aaron Rodgers, this play is dead.
With Mahomes, it becomes a massive win. He sprints away from the incoming rush and identifies an open spot on the field that Hill can run into. While barely slowing down, Mahomes fires the ball at an angle and platform that seem like something from a video game, and he places the ball where only Hill can get to it. The Chiefs stay alive and go on to win the game in a situation where every other quarterback fails.
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Mahomes is more defense-proof (that really should be a term in analysis) than any other quarterback in the league, including Brees, regardless of the latter’s greatness. He doesn’t need the offense to succeed. When it comes down to it, he really can make it happen on his own. And that’s where his unique value comes through the most.
Windham:
Once again, incredible stuff, though I think the allure toward the flash that Mahomes possesses and utilizes so often can draw us away from the consistent greatness that Brees is providing to this day. Here are some interesting tidbits: Did you know Brees is actually leading the NFL in fourth-quarter comebacks (five) and game-winning drives (six)? Mahomes is no slouch in this area, as he has two of each and is tied with names like Andrew Luck, Aaron Rodgers and Cam Newton, but it just shows how impressive Brees’ season really is.
To add a little more context, out of the 10 receivers and tight ends who have caught a touchdown pass from Brees this season, six are undrafted free agents. While draft status isn’t everything, it does speak to how Brees is able to elevate the play of those around him. In fact, the highest draft pick in that group would be tight end Ben Watson, who was selected in the first round by the New England Patriots in 2004. Michael Thomas is a stud, to be sure, and the Saints have a great running back tandem, but what Brees has been able to succeed with this year makes his historic numbers all the more impressive.
Let’s take a look at the recent Monday Night Football game against the Carolina Panthers. To add some context to this play, backup left tackle Jermon Bushrod (because starting left tackle Terron Armstead is out with injury) has left the game, forcing left guard Andrus Peat to slide over to his slot. At left guard, the Saints have Will Clapp with future Hall of Famer Julius Peppers lined up across from him. Backup center Cameron Tom is filling in for an injured Max Unger. It’s third-and-14 in the middle of the fourth quarter, and failing to convert would breathe life back into the Panthers’ playoff hopes. Brees would have every right to be nervous, fidgety and worried that his line wouldn’t be able to protect him. Could an errant pass be upcoming?
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Maybe it’s a bit old school, but standing tall in the pocket, taking a hit and delivering a perfect throw to convert a critical third down is as good as it gets for me. It doesn’t possess the shock and awe power of Mahomes’ cross-body, deep-field prayer shots (which, my goodness, how does he do that?), yet it is the type of play that has brought Brees to those league-leading, game-winning statistics as well as making him the highest-rated quarterback in the league this year (116.8 rating).
An aspect I truly love about Mahomes is his ability to extend the play in what we call the scramble drill. Like in that play against the Ravens, he just makes something happen. This has never been an area of Brees’ game that makes the highlights every week, but it certainly is an underrated ability Brees has. Let’s jump back to the Saints playing on the road earlier in the season in Baltimore. Once again, the Ravens have good coverage that takes away Brees’ initial reads and forces him to buy time, just as Mahomes had to do against Baltimore.
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Want to talk about difficult throws? You just saw one! On the move, heading left as a right-handed quarterback and throwing downfield more than 30 yards to a spot that allows his receiver to plant his feet and fall out of bounds, preventing the safety from hitting him … this is a throw extremely high on the difficulty meter. There are professional quarterbacks who would struggle to hit that target if they were standing with a proper base in a clean pocket, and yet Brees is able to roll out and extend the play while still possessing the ability to make the throw you forget that he can. It’s become cliché how accurate Brees has been over the course of his career and how his ball placement has been second to none.
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Keysor:
Man … Brees can play. No doubt in my mind. And that many comeback wins are wildly impressive. But if we’re going to talk about those types of things, it has to be noted that Mahomes has brought his team from behind to take the lead late in the fourth quarter in two of the Chiefs’ three losses. The only reason those games didn’t become “comeback wins” is because his defense failed time and again. Of course, he’d still trail Brees in that area.
But I’m glad you brought up consistency. What Mahomes has done in that area this season has gotten overlooked because of how flashy his play is. The assumption is that with a lot of sizzle, the steak goes away. But nothing could be further from the truth. While there’s no “great” quarterback stat, ESPN’s QBR at least does the best it can to try to contextualize basic statistics in terms of situation and opponent. If you look at Mahomes’ numbers in those areas, it’s shocking what he’s done. Not once this season has he posted a QBR below 61 on his way to a league-leading 82.4. By contrast, Brees has four games below 50 on his way to being the second-highest rated quarterback in the league in that category (81.2). That takes nothing away from Brees, who has been tremendous, but it shows that the youngster has somehow been able to pace the veteran in consistency.
And that might be what makes Mahomes stand out the most. He hasn’t had a genuinely bad game all year. Not a single one. In every single game, he’s played at a high level on film and statistically, regardless of the defense. He’s lost receivers and linemen to injury, had to adjust to the loss of running back Kareem Hunt for the horrible things he did … and he’s just kept on performing at an absurdly high level. As fantastic as Brees has been, I think Mahomes has been even more consistent.
On a final note: I take it back (about Mahomes, not Brees; Brees really is that good). That’s not what makes Mahomes stand out the most. Not quite. His stunning consistency as a first-year starter sure is special, make no mistake about that. The fact that he’s already thrown for more touchdowns in a single season than all but five other quarterbacks in the history of the league (with two games to go!) is incredible. His ability to make something out of nothing is borderline magical, to be sure. All of these things add up to creating a remarkably strong résumé as the best quarterback of 2018. But the thing that makes Mahomes stand out the most is … well, stuff like this:
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Mahomes plays the position like no one has. He’s rewriting what is possible on the football field right in front of our eyes. This is Magic Johnson’s first-year-in-the-NBA stuff, and you can bet a whole generation of quarterbacks are rethinking what it means to play the position. That’s the magic of Mahomes, a guy I call “cheat code” because the stuff he does, really, is completely unfair.
Windham:
Yeah, I’ve got nothing for the no-look pass. Brees has something similar he does, but if we were to rank them on a scale of 1 to 10 in no-look passes, I’d give Mahomes a 10 and Brees a 2 or 3. I like that you brought up Magic’s rookie season, though, because you know who won the MVP that year? The veteran Kareem Abdul-Jabbar! Truth is, both players are having magical seasons and it’s been a real treat for guys like you and me to cover them.
When I think of what makes Brees special, it’s easy to go to things like his accuracy, ball placement, how he reads defenses pre- and post-snap, or the very long list of NFL records he holds. But there’s just another quality that stands out for me, and it’s his leadership and never-quit attitude. That attitude permeates the locker room, and it’s infectious. Players aren’t just wanting to win a Super Bowl for the prestige or their own personal glory. They want to win it for Brees.
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Plays like this one are the epitome of who Brees is. Game on the line. Hated division rival. Opportunity to build momentum and a winning record. He puts his body out there to make a play. Don’t let anyone tell you Brees isn’t athletic, either. Just because he chooses not to run doesn’t mean he can’t. I’m sure the readers would be surprised to learn that he’s actually tied among quarterbacks for the third-most rushing touchdowns this year, with four. Not bad for a 39-year-old “pocket passer.” Oh, and after the above touchdown tied the score, he would rush for another one in overtime to win it. So many of the Saints’ wins, both this year and throughout his tenure in New Orleans, have been him simply willing them to victory. Bad defenses, injuries or obstacles be damned, Brees is a winner.
Both players have had fantastic seasons, and no matter who ends up winning the league’s MVP award, all football fans should take the time to just sit back and enjoy what each is doing. It’s a masterful display of the modern offense executed from opposites ends of the spectrum. One player has been so good for so long we’ve almost gotten to the point where the greatness is expected, even underrated. On the other hand, we have a young quarterback who could very well be the face of the position for years to come if he’s able to extend his success in the following seasons.
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It’s a great time to be a football fan and a fan of quarterback play.
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