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The Lounge>Dolphins + 19
Ubeja Vontell 06:30 PM 09-10-2019
That is hard to believe in pro football. When was the last time we saw a spread that crazy in the NFL?

Like those LSU - 50 vs Bethune Cookman, what do you do with these kinds of numbers?

What would the line be if Clemson played the Dolphins on Saturday?

If I'm Belichick I'm playing my backups as much as I can, these Dolphins don't care meaning they could be dangerous when it comes to cheap shots and thuggery.
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lcarus 11:56 AM 09-11-2019
God damn the Patriots next 7 games are a complete joke.

@Dolphins
Jets
@Bills
@Redskins
Giants
@Jets
Browns
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Why Not? 12:33 PM 09-11-2019
Originally Posted by ChiefBlueCFC:
I'm pretty sure Oklahoma State was a 70 point favorite a few years ago when they played some small D2 school -- I think Florida State had a similar line playing some directional school a few years ago as well
Now NCAA major ridiculous underdogs, I will lay action on. I hit on New Mexico or NM State or whatever they are covering 55 against ‘Bama. College coaches tend to call off the dogs and/or start playing 2nd-3rd stringers by the 4th in those games.
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JD10367 03:38 PM 09-11-2019
Originally Posted by eDave:
So what's the play here?
Patriots never win in Miami, but this Patriots team looks pretty good. But there’s no way they cover 19. Even in a big win I can see a late score ruining that spread. Wouldn’t be surprised if it’s something like a 30-6 game and a 4th quarter Fins TD kills it.
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Giant Octopodes 07:15 PM 09-11-2019
Originally Posted by JD10367:
Patriots never win in Miami, but this Patriots team looks pretty good. But there’s no way they cover 19. Even in a big win I can see a late score ruining that spread. Wouldn’t be surprised if it’s something like a 30-6 game and a 4th quarter Fins TD kills it.
I wouldn't say there's "no way" they cover. After all they just beat the Steelers by 30, and say what you will about the Steelers, I don't think they're worse than the Dolphins this year. That being said the Dolphins in Miami is about as unfavorable a matchup as exists for the Patriots so I also wouldn't be surprised to see them win outright, or at least keep it close. I wouldn't bet real money on it in either direction, but if I had to, I'd say talent trumps history and I'd count on the Pat's blowing them out.
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Mahomes15MyHomes 09:58 PM 09-11-2019
Originally Posted by BlackHelicopters:
The NFL is an underdog league. History shows that consistently taking the home dog with double digit points can be a winning strategy.
Yeah the man nailed it. There is a stat on it somewhere. Overwhelmingly, the dog covers. They might not sunday. But either you play Miami or don't play.

The public (which loses routinely) loves favorites & overs. If those hit all the time (and they do hit), those big buildings wouldn't be built. But hand over fist, the public loses over the long term. And the linesmakers know how to set these numbers so that the public just loses. And they're so good in NFL that they'll set it so that you just lose by a hair, keeping the viewer invested until the very end so beautifully! And those air-proof teasers so carefully placed that get the pats down to -7 will somehow lose too in many of these scenarios.

I know this of course, because it took me 15 long, hard, bloody years to be successful at it. And NFL is still hard. Because the spreads are tighter and better every year, their info improves at the books, the minds they have working for them and the info they get that we don't is light years ahead of us. The only way to win is to bet like you're the house, the casino. Over the long haul other than in the right spot, it will never fail. Some get it, some don't.
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Mahomes15MyHomes 10:00 PM 09-11-2019
Originally Posted by lcarus:
God damn the Patriots next 7 games are a complete joke.

@Dolphins
Jets
@Bills
@Redskins
Giants
@Jets
Browns
It looks that way. But something weird will occur in half of these so that the Pats somehow don't cover. I see two to three of those already where I know I'll take the points (Bills or Jets, Skins possibly, Cleveland). Trust me. They will get it to a number that's perfect so the Pats either win + do not cover; or lose outright in a huge spot that looks guaranteed and they make enough money on all the public losses in that ONE GAME to mitigate the rest of the public wins on that given Sunday. It happens all the time.
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New World Order 10:08 PM 09-11-2019
Originally Posted by lcarus:
God damn the Patriots next 7 games are a complete joke.

@Dolphins
Jets
@Bills
@Redskins
Giants
@Jets
Browns
The hope is they lose 2 out of 3 to the Texans, Eagles or Ravens. Those are all on the road.

That most likely sets up the winner of NE/KC for HFA.
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Nzoner 10:27 PM 09-11-2019
Personally if you an extra fifty or hundred to really gamble throw it at the Miami money line @ +1070

I'll never forget leaving Vegas in '04 with the Yanks up 3-0 against the Red Sox in the playoffs and a buddy suggesting I throw $20 on the Sox to come back and win the series.Of course I said no way that'll ever happen :-)
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Ubeja Vontell 10:33 PM 09-11-2019
I can see a 38-17 game late in the 4th quarter when out come the Pat starters, the Dolphins score a garbage time TD, so....38-24.....Pats fail to cover the number.
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GloryDayz 10:42 PM 09-11-2019
Fuck the Pats.
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Ubeja Vontell 10:47 PM 09-11-2019
Originally Posted by GloryDayz:
**** the Pats.
You are looking at it all wrong.

Clemson took down the mighty Alabama Crimson Tide, that is a...WOW!

When our Chiefs take down the mighty New England Patriots, yep.....WOW!
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Giant Octopodes 06:04 AM 09-12-2019
Originally Posted by Mahomes15MyHomes:
It looks that way. But something weird will occur in half of these so that the Pats somehow don't cover. I see two to three of those already where I know I'll take the points (Bills or Jets, Skins possibly, Cleveland). Trust me. They will get it to a number that's perfect so the Pats either win + do not cover; or lose outright in a huge spot that looks guaranteed and they make enough money on all the public losses in that ONE GAME to mitigate the rest of the public wins on that given Sunday. It happens all the time.
Sure it's easy to say that, but since 2014 the Patriots beat the spread around 65% of the time, every year. So in my opinion you'd be better just taking the Pats every game and taking the easy money than trying to figure out which games fall into the 35% which won't cover and opening yourself up to the potential of getting it wrong every week.

I mean there's nothing wrong with what you're saying, but when you can be right over 60% of the time automatically, how can you turn down easy money? That's my thought on it at least.
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GloryDayz 06:20 AM 09-12-2019
Originally Posted by Ubeja Vontell:
You are looking at it all wrong.

Clemson took down the mighty Alabama Crimson Tide, that is a...WOW!

When our Chiefs take down the mighty New England Patriots, yep.....WOW!
That's one option, their plane falling from the sky is another, either would improve the product the NFL provides.

Fuck the Pats.
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RollChiefsRoll 06:22 AM 09-12-2019
Originally Posted by BWillie:
Miami -42 vs Clemson
This. The Phins would beat Clemson by at least 50. Clemson spent a half or so looking like recycled ass against Georgia Tech.
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Mile High Mania 06:32 AM 09-12-2019
Originally Posted by Ubeja Vontell:
You are looking at it all wrong.

Clemson took down the mighty Alabama Crimson Tide, that is a...WOW!

When our Chiefs take down the mighty New England Patriots, yep.....WOW!
You're the same guy that was screaming about some uber fast spare RB that was cut by Denver and then resigned to the practice squad, yeah?


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