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The Lounge>Dolphins + 19
Ubeja Vontell 06:30 PM 09-10-2019
That is hard to believe in pro football. When was the last time we saw a spread that crazy in the NFL?

Like those LSU - 50 vs Bethune Cookman, what do you do with these kinds of numbers?

What would the line be if Clemson played the Dolphins on Saturday?

If I'm Belichick I'm playing my backups as much as I can, these Dolphins don't care meaning they could be dangerous when it comes to cheap shots and thuggery.
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Ubeja Vontell 11:54 PM 09-10-2019
Originally Posted by Mahomes15MyHomes:
I am a professional gambler. Moreso in MLB. But I do know how to read lines in the NFL. Usually the team with the high number especially at home covers in these situations. At the same time, it's this high for a REASON. With reports that the Dolphins have quit and all that; and you get the Patriots on the National Sunday night game fresh on people's mind dominating, the public will be on Pats more than ever in this one. So, you'll also have those scared folks teasing down New England to -12 even -7 in some situations. This is a no play for me. I simply do not like these spots either way and there's no right way to really bet it. GUN to my head, I would have to take Dolphins because I simply don't believe that Vegas is just going to give away money on a cover at a 80% clip, it isnt that simple. But this is a no play. You cannot win on games like this, don't try.
I'll be damn, somebody who understands..."spots".

I never mess with those gaudy numbers, stay in that 4 points or less relm, there it's pretty much the better team wins and covers, love small favorites.
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Mahomes15MyHomes 12:02 AM 09-11-2019
Originally Posted by Ubeja Vontell:
I'll be damn, somebody who understands..."spots".

I never mess with those gaudy numbers, stay in that 4 points or less relm, there it's pretty much the better team wins and covers, love small favorites.

Yeah, exactly. Just watch where the money is being laid; and what the line is doing counter to that. I actually think Vegas week 1 believed we were going to struggle in Jacksonville. 80% of the tickets were on the Chiefs. Yet the line went from 3.5 to 3. It did not make sense... either vegas is in the business of giving away free, easy money... or they ran simulations or had a pretty good inkling that the Jags were going to cover. I took the Jags to cover and lost badly obviously. And america made out with the books money. But over the long haul; if you look for these spots you will win. Same holds true in baseball where I make most of my money.

This week... already one jumps out. Everyone is pounding the Seahawks because they're a popular team... and the Steelers got buried on National TV. I love a team off a butt kicking anyways.

Then I see that the Steelers have gone -3.5 to -4 already. Everyone in the world will want Seattle even more. They're trapping people on Seattle. Pittsburgh is going to win the game, and cover. And Vegas knows it.
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Ubeja Vontell 12:11 AM 09-11-2019
Originally Posted by Mahomes15MyHomes:
Yeah, exactly. Just watch where the money is being laid; and what the line is doing counter to that. I actually think Vegas week 1 believed we were going to struggle in Jacksonville. 80% of the tickets were on the Chiefs. Yet the line went from 3.5 to 3. It did not make sense... either vegas is in the business of giving away free, easy money... or they ran simulations or had a pretty good inkling that the Jags were going to cover. I took the Jags to cover and lost badly obviously. And america made out with the books money. But over the long haul; if you look for these spots you will win. Same holds true in baseball where I make most of my money.

This week... already one jumps out. Everyone is pounding the Seahawks because they're a popular team... and the Steelers got buried on National TV. I love a team off a butt kicking anyways.

Then I see that the Steelers have gone -3.5 to -4 already. Everyone in the world will want Seattle even more. They're trapping people on Seattle. Pittsburgh is going to win the game, and cover. And Vegas knows it.
I'm totally with you, the Steelers at home coming off a bad loss laying a small number vs a known to be a weak road tream. Yep, the Steelers are the play.

I usually don't get into searching out a "spot" where everything ATS points to a side until Friday, I do the homework.
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Amnorix 07:03 AM 09-11-2019
Originally Posted by Megatron96:
Patriots haven't covered against Miami in Miami during the regular season in something like 7 consecutive attempts. Also, when the Dolphins play the Patriots in Miami and won, the 'Fins have nearly as many double-digit wins against the Patriots as the Patriots do against Miami when playing in NE.

Furthermore, the last time the Patriots beat the Dolphins in Miami when the OAT was at least 80 degrees or more was almost ten years ago.

Bottom line, the Patriots have been perennially snake-bit when it comes to playing in Miami before December.

However, this isn't the same Dolphins team from last year that yes, beat the Patriots for the third time in a row in Miami. They got rid of their HC, QB, part of their OL, DL, their best WR, etc. and so on. And didn't replace them with anyone of note.

So this week we find out if Bob Kraft's predilection for handies really is some kind of jinx, or if Miami has just been preternaturally lucky for the last ten years or so.

I will NEVER forget a few years ago when the 12-1 Pats played the 2-11 Dolphins in Miami and were leading, slightly, with like 5 minutes left and then went on to play just about the worst five minutes of football of BB/Brady's time together to throw it all away.

Then you have last year's "Miami Miracle", the lone highlight in an otherwise lousy season down there.

There's no question that Miami is the Bermuda Triangle of the Patriots Dynasty. Be prepared for weirdness, and be prepared to lose, no matter that it makes no damn sense at all.
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KChiefs1 07:28 AM 09-11-2019
Could the Dolphins beat Clemson?
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Why Not? 07:42 AM 09-11-2019
Originally Posted by KChiefs1:
Could the Dolphins beat Clemson?
We have this conversation every year.


Yes. By double digits.
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Nzoner 07:56 AM 09-11-2019
Originally Posted by Why Not?:
Avoid completely. Most novices will say “easy $ on the Pats!”


But, NFL. One busted play early and that line becomes NE-26 to cover that 19,

Buuuuut....you could see the Pats covering, so this game is off my board for the week
And if forced to bet on a game like this i.e. Yahoo Spread pickem etc. type game take the home dog.
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Nzoner 08:00 AM 09-11-2019
Originally Posted by Ubeja Vontell:
They aren't the ones calling him a choker, that would be you.

Peyton Manning is one of the top 3-4 QB's of all time.
Sorry but Rainman is partially right here as Manning was definitely known as being a choker BUT it was in the playoffs.

Originally Posted by :
Entering these playoffs—which many believe will be his last—Manning had a losing record in the postseason and just one championship despite making the playoffs 14 times in 16 seasons as a healthy starter. Thus, this might be his last chance to salvage a pristine legacy by becoming the 12th quarterback to win multiple Super Bowls.

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Nzoner 08:04 AM 09-11-2019
Originally Posted by Mahomes15MyHomes:
I am a professional gambler. Moreso in MLB. But I do know how to read lines in the NFL. Usually the team with the high number especially at home covers in these situations. At the same time, it's this high for a REASON. With reports that the Dolphins have quit and all that; and you get the Patriots on the National Sunday night game fresh on people's mind dominating, the public will be on Pats more than ever in this one. So, you'll also have those scared folks teasing down New England to -12 even -7 in some situations. This is a no play for me. I simply do not like these spots either way and there's no right way to really bet it. GUN to my head, I would have to take Dolphins because I simply don't believe that Vegas is just going to give away money on a cover at a 80% clip, it isnt that simple. But this is a no play. You cannot win on games like this, don't try.
Nice explanation,especially how the public can't think past the previous week.
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Ubeja Vontell 10:46 AM 09-11-2019
Originally Posted by KChiefs1:
Could the Dolphins beat Clemson?
People forget that college allstar teams have beaten NFL Champs a few times.

I do think the final 4 in the NCAA could hang tough vs the worst NFL teams.
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BlackHelicopters 10:53 AM 09-11-2019
The NFL is an underdog league. History shows that consistently taking the home dog with double digit points can be a winning strategy.
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ChiefBlueCFC 10:56 AM 09-11-2019
I'm pretty sure Oklahoma State was a 70 point favorite a few years ago when they played some small D2 school -- I think Florida State had a similar line playing some directional school a few years ago as well
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Ubeja Vontell 11:02 AM 09-11-2019
Originally Posted by BlackHelicopters:
The NFL is an underdog league. History shows that consistently taking the home dog with double digit points can be a winning strategy.
I'm going to see what I can find on that, I have heard that before.
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Ubeja Vontell 11:03 AM 09-11-2019
Originally Posted by ChiefBlueCFC:
I'm pretty sure Oklahoma State was a 70 point favorite a few years ago when they played some small D2 school -- I think Florida State had a similar line playing some directional school a few years ago as well
We see those huge numbers all the time in college football, but it's rare to see - 19 in the NFL.
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ChiefBlueCFC 11:08 AM 09-11-2019
Originally Posted by Ubeja Vontell:
We see those huge numbers all the time in college football, but it's rare to see - 19 in the NFL.
Ya, it's pretty rare to see double digit spreads, let alone -19
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