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The Lounge>****The Official 2019 STL Cardinals Thread****
BigRedChief 03:23 AM 01-10-2019
Cardinals announce 25-man Opening Day roster for the 2019 season.
Spoiler!

2019 Opening Day Line up
Spoiler!

[Reply]
Prison Bitch 12:57 PM 02-22-2019
Nobody ever sees a collapse coming DJ. That’s precisely why they happen.
[Reply]
BigRedChief 05:29 PM 02-23-2019
Jose Martinez gets a 2 year deal. Since he still is under the control for 4 more years. And those 2 years of control beyond this agreement are still there, Why do this? Does it make him more “tradeable”?
[Reply]
BigRedChief 02:48 PM 02-26-2019
Mikolas signing a new 4 year deal worth $68 million guaranteed.

Reports: Cardinals sign Mikolas to contract extension https://t.co/pwEUTHBEIZ #KMOV pic.twitter.com/cX4q4r0kdA

— KMOV (@KMOV) February 26, 2019

[Reply]
DJ's left nut 03:01 PM 02-26-2019
Pretty much an exactly 'fair' deal by my general view on the value of a win and how I'd project his age 31-34 seasons.

I mean everyone that still parrots that retarded $8 million+ win share bullshit (they're actually trying to push that to $9 million now) will go sucking Moe's dick but by a reasonable breakdown of what teams actually consider good contracts (vs. simply averaging out all the shit they have to eat because of guaranteed deals), you can see this is a reasonably fair deal for both sides.

I'd say the range of possible outcomes over that contract is something between $105-110 million of 'value' on the high end (presuming slight drop off and steady inflation in player salaries) to around $35-$40 million presuming a year lost to injury, more aggressive drop off and a flat revenue curve in baseball.

Shoot for the middle of those and you're looking at $70-75 million as a reasonable middle ground with both sides accepting similar risk.

There are a bunch of different ways to look at this deal and every way I look at it says that something from $65 to about $76 million seems close enough in the margins to not care either way.

It's a fair deal - I can live with that.
[Reply]
Marco Polo 04:34 PM 02-26-2019
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
Pretty much an exactly 'fair' deal by my general view on the value of a win and how I'd project his age 31-34 seasons.

I mean everyone that still parrots that retarded $8 million+ win share bullshit (they're actually trying to push that to $9 million now) will go sucking Moe's dick but by a reasonable breakdown of what teams actually consider good contracts (vs. simply averaging out all the shit they have to eat because of guaranteed deals), you can see this is a reasonably fair deal for both sides.

I'd say the range of possible outcomes over that contract is something between $105-110 million of 'value' on the high end (presuming slight drop off and steady inflation in player salaries) to around $35-$40 million presuming a year lost to injury, more aggressive drop off and a flat revenue curve in baseball.

Shoot for the middle of those and you're looking at $70-75 million as a reasonable middle ground with both sides accepting similar risk.

There are a bunch of different ways to look at this deal and every way I look at it says that something from $65 to about $76 million seems close enough in the margins to not care either way.

It's a fair deal - I can live with that.
Always enjoy reading your analysis after a move
[Reply]
BigRedChief 05:32 PM 02-26-2019
Originally Posted by Marco Polo:
Always enjoy reading your analysis after a move
This. Makes sense.

A “Fair deal” is the best we can hope for in baseball contracts these days.
[Reply]
Frazod 08:04 AM 02-27-2019
Originally Posted by Marco Polo:
Always enjoy reading your analysis after a move
I wish he was the GM.
[Reply]
Marco Polo 08:24 AM 02-27-2019
This article was posted on the Athletic yesterday. Not a lot of comments after the article, like normal, but it's a very important shift (pun intended) on the defensive approach. Also, I still hate Matheny.

With Paul Goldschmidt anchoring Cardinals infield, they’re preparing to shift more, at last

JUPITER,​ Fla. –​ It​ was​ the​ second​ inning​ of a spring-training​ game,​ a moment with virtually​ no impact​ on​ the St.​ Louis​ Cardinals’​​ chances this season, at least at first glance.

Matt Adams, ex-Cardinal and an extreme left-handed pull hitter, was batting. Third baseman Matt Carpenter did something he figures to do more than ever before in his career — he jogged over to the opposite side of the infield.

Adams swung at Michael Wacha’s first pitch and hit a weak popup in foul territory. It was on the third-base side, where only shortstop Edmundo Sosa was left standing.

By the time the ball landed in Sosa’s glove, Wacha, too, had run over and could have made the catch. A year ago, that shift might not have happened, because under manager Mike Matheny and infield coach Jose Oquendo, the Cardinals didn’t often practice what to do while three infielders were on one side of the diamond.

The Cardinals led the majors in errors last season, just one indication of how poorly they have fielded in recent seasons. Shifting more aggressively is part of the planned solution.

“Michael was right on it,” Shildt said. “We’re going to have more of an understanding of how to execute when we’re in the shift.”

In 2019, the Cardinals employed three infielders on one side of the second-base bag less frequently than any team in the National League. Against left-handed batters, the Cardinals employed shifts 6.8 percent of the time. Against righties, they did it 1.9 percent of the time, according to Statcast data. By contrast, the data-driven Houston Astros shifted nearly 60 percent of the time against lefties and 21.2 percent of the time vs. righties.

The Cardinals think it’s time to start catching up to one of the game’s most talked-about trends.

“We’re preparing to do more of it,” general manager Michael Girsch said. “Now, whether we do a lot more of it will depend on how our pitchers are pitching and who our defenders are and all sorts of things, but we’re in a better position to do more of it.”

The managerial change from Matheny to Shildt is among the factors prompting the Cardinals to shift more, team sources said, but there are two others.

Oquendo moved infielders based on his deep knowledge of major league hitters, but he will give way to Stubby Clapp, who is in his first season as a major-league coach. The Cardinals are hopeful that, as good as Oquendo was at it, computer-supplied data will be even better.

First baseman Paul Goldschmidt, a three-time Gold Glove Award winner, not only is athletic enough to cover the ground necessary to shift in extreme ways, he’s more than willing to do it. Last year, the Cardinals had Carpenter and José Martínez at first base in most games, and both were learning on the job, not always successfully.

“I think the idea of the shift is you’re trying to put all seven of your players besides the pitcher and the catcher in the best spot possible to catch as many balls,” Goldschmidt said. “If guys are going to hit it to one spot, you want to be standing in the best spot possible. I think we’ve seen the numbers back that up. One step here or there can make a big difference, and the data does show you that.”

Evidence suggests that shifting has tamped-down offense to some extent, but the data is not overwhelming. The two teams that employed three fielders on one side of the bag most frequently, the Astros and Tampa Bay Rays, each were among the top five in MLB in batting average on balls in play (BABIP) allowed. The Rays allowed opponents a .278 BABIP and the Astros .283.

The Cardinals (.293) and Los Angeles Angels (.294), the teams that shifted the least, were both below average at converting batted balls into outs. The San Diego Padres (.305) also were among the least-aggressive teams with regard to shifting, and they, too, struggled defensively.

Among the 10 worst teams in BABIP, the Kansas City Royals, Minnesota Twins and New York Yankees, though, were also in the top five in shifts.

“I’m not sure anyone knows what the exact right answer is for efficiency. I think we could definitely shift more and be in the range of: ‘This seems like the right thing to do,’ Girsch said. “But I’m not 100 percent sure that there’s an exact right answer that we were missing.”

It’s also not universally popular, even among Cardinals infielders. Second baseman Kolten Wong, the team’s most agile infielder, isn’t a fan.

Wong, who was a finalist for a Gold Glove Award in 2018, said he thinks shifting allows teams to employ infielders “who shouldn’t be playing the infield,” and he would like to see Major League Baseball rule against it.
“It takes away from guys like me who pride ourselves on being able to make those plays,” Wong said. “I didn’t need to be put in any position. I know if I do my job and I read these pitchers, I read how they’re throwing the ball, I can make my best educated guess of how to get to balls. With other guys, you can see if they’re not really focused on that.”

Wong said he will go along with the plan to shift more. Cardinals pitchers have already been told to expect more of it. One of the reasons Matheny backed down from an earlier attempt to shift more, sources say, was because of blowback from Oquendo and some of the pitchers.

“I think we’re past the point of upsetting anybody,” Shildt said.
[Reply]
Miles 10:17 AM 02-27-2019
Cards signed Matt Wieters yesterday to a minor league deal. Know he’s likely pretty washed but Pena is not exactly a high bar for backup catch to make an improvement on.
[Reply]
Prison Bitch 10:24 AM 02-27-2019
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
Pretty much an exactly 'fair' deal by my general view on the value of a win and how I'd project his age 31-34 seasons.

I mean everyone that still parrots that retarded $8 million+ win share bullshit (they're actually trying to push that to $9 million now) will go sucking Moe's dick but by a reasonable breakdown of what teams actually consider good contracts (vs. simply averaging out all the shit they have to eat because of guaranteed deals), you can see this is a reasonably fair deal for both sides.

I'd say the range of possible outcomes over that contract is something between $105-110 million of 'value' on the high end (presuming slight drop off and steady inflation in player salaries) to around $35-$40 million presuming a year lost to injury, more aggressive drop off and a flat revenue curve in baseball.

Shoot for the middle of those and you're looking at $70-75 million as a reasonable middle ground with both sides accepting similar risk.

There are a bunch of different ways to look at this deal and every way I look at it says that something from $65 to about $76 million seems close enough in the margins to not care either way.

It's a fair deal - I can live with that.

I don’t understand the point you’re teying to make here.
[Reply]
BigRedChief 12:10 PM 02-27-2019
Originally Posted by Miles:
Cards signed Matt Wieters yesterday to a minor league deal. Know he’s likely pretty washed but Pena is not exactly a high bar for backup catch to make an improvement on.
why not give him a look?:-) Agree that Pena will not provide shit this year. Keizer needs the year of experience in AAA. We just need a one year stop gap to get to
Knizer.
[Reply]
BigRedChief 12:13 PM 02-27-2019
Originally Posted by Marco Polo:
Also, I still hate Matheny
:-) damn right. He set us back years.
[Reply]
O.city 01:51 PM 02-27-2019
Well, looks like the Harper sweepstakes is down to the Giants and Dodgers.
[Reply]
DJ's left nut 02:02 PM 02-27-2019
Originally Posted by O.city:
Well, looks like the Harper sweepstakes is down to the Giants and Dodgers.
Evidently history just doesn't !@#$ing matter to ANYONE.

I mean Jesus, Harper - can you imagine what you'll be capable of in that launching pad in Philly? That park is a dream for lefty power hitters and he'd just kill in it.

And instead he, like Machado, wants to go to among the 5 worst hitting environments in baseball because they'll pay him some slight percentage more than Philadelphia would, all of which is just gonna be sitting in the bank when he dies.

Oh, and fuck the Cardinals again for not even engaging. God dammit that's irritating.

But hey, at least they'll get to pay Goldschmidt the same AAV for his decline years while he plays a position that their best hitter already played while batting RH when they needed a lefty. So that's nice.
[Reply]
BigRedChief 06:28 PM 02-27-2019
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
Evidently history just doesn't !@#$ing matter to ANYONE.

I mean Jesus, Harper - can you imagine what you'll be capable of in that launching pad in Philly? That park is a dream for lefty power hitters and he'd just kill in it.

And instead he, like Machado, wants to go to among the 5 worst hitting environments in baseball because they'll pay him some slight percentage more than Philadelphia would, all of which is just gonna be sitting in the bank when he dies.

Oh, and fuck the Cardinals again for not even engaging. God dammit that's irritating.

But hey, at least they'll get to pay Goldschmidt the same AAV for his decline years while he plays a position that their best hitter already played while batting RH when they needed a lefty. So that's nice.
I was on record that they should give $350 million to Harper as soon as the season was over if that’s what it took to land him.

you can’t really fault the Cardinals for passing on Harper and Machado after watching how all this has played out in MLB. A bunch of teams are passing on them. Most need him as bad as we do. Looks like both were just going to the place who will pay the highest $. We can’t outbid The big boys.

As long as we have a top 10 payroll, money won’t be why we fail. We failed last year in part because we gave $100 million to Fowler, Cecil, Holland, Gregerson etc. We spent top 10 money last year. Just on the wrong players. That’s not a Dewitt issue but a Mo issue.
[Reply]
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