NFL odds: After Sunday night, Patrick Mahomes is now the overwhelming NFL MVP favorite
Frank Schwab 2 hrs ago
We can cease and desist with any debate about someone other than Patrick Mahomes being the NFL MVP favorite.
You’ll hear people argue that Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson, Alvin Kamara or anyone else should be “in the conversation,” but the only real talk is that the Kansas City Chiefs quarterback is the overwhelming favorite until further notice. Everyone else is vying for NFL offensive player of the year, though Mahomes should probably win that too.
Sunday night’s heroics, leading a game-winning drive over the Las Vegas Raiders everyone knew was coming, solidified Mahomes’ position. He’s the best player in football and he’s having a phenomenal year.
The odds at BetMGM reflect that.
Mahomes is -118 to win MVP at BetMGM. Next on the list is Wilson at +350. Aaron Rodgers is +550 and nobody else is less than 12-to-1. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Hammock Parties:
I still think Mahomes is going to trail off starting now. We're going to be curbstomping everyone and he'll be bench-riding in the fourth. We'll probably have two or three 28-9 type wins down the stretch where Bell gets some TDs.
I think Rodgers ends up with a higher QB rating and about 5-6 more TDs.
Rodgers remaining games
Eagles at Green Bay
Lions in Detroit
Panthers at Green Bay
Titans at Green Bay
Bears in Chicago
Yeah, looks pretty easy. Maybe Aaron will be sitting out the last game. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Hammock Parties:
I still think Mahomes is going to trail off starting now. We're going to be curbstomping everyone and he'll be bench-riding in the fourth. We'll probably have two or three 28-9 type wins down the stretch where Bell gets some TDs.
I think Rodgers ends up with a higher QB rating and about 5-6 more TDs.
not sure - he did drop 400/5 TDS on the Jets.
You might even get a situation where getting the MVP for Mahomes is a 'playcalling priority' in the absence of any other priorities (division locked up, just hoping Pitt loses a game), which would further inflate the numbers.
We do appear to have abandoned the run completely. [Reply]
It’s great that Mahomes is having a third terrific season, but teams have a lot of tape on him now. The league will get him figured out this offseason.
/s
(Please pay attention to the /s this time, it’s there for your convenience) [Reply]
Originally Posted by htismaqe:
Hey, if you wanna crown Henry, go ahead.
RB's are antiques. He's not going to win MVP.
^ This. For better or worse its a QB driven league and looks to be that way for a long time. Unless a RB shatters records he will never sniff a MVP. Michael Thomas put up insane record breaking numbers last year and Lamar was still the unanimous MVP. In spite of Aaron Donald being arguably the second best player in football he will never even come close to winning a MVP regardless of what he does. [Reply]
As always, it depends on what is meant by "valuable." If that means "If you could choose any player in the NFL, who would you choose?', the answer is Mahomes.
Of course, the answer to many questions is Mahomes, so he should probably get it regardless of definition. [Reply]
Here's why Patrick Mahomes had the greatest month for a quarterback in NFL history
The latest feat Mahomes accomplished is one no quarterback has ever reached -- and will be hard to beat even as NFL scoring and yardage numbers continue to reach an all-time high.
Mahomes finished the month of November completing 72.9% of his passes and throwing for 1,598 yards with 14 touchdowns to just one interception for a 123.1 passer rating. He averaged 399.5 passing yards per game in November, the highest average passing yards for any month in NFL history -- and arguably the greatest month for any quarterback ever.
Part of the problem is that the definition of "MVP" is not unanimously understood. right now it seems to mean "Most Incredible Quarterback that Wins the Most Games Award." [Reply]
Originally Posted by Megatron96:
No. Tannehill is very average without being able to lean on PA. We proved that in the AFCCG. Take away Henry, and Tannehill is just an average QB.
Okay, maybe not 'very average,' that's overstating a little. He's better than just average, but he isn't top 10, so somewhere between 12-15 is more accurate.
This isn't a counter to my post. The quality of your RB doesn't actually make much of a difference when it comes to using PA. Pretty much all effective offenses make good use of PA. Hell, analytics tells us that there isn't even a strong correlation between running the ball and play action effectiveness.
And tbh the 12th best QB is going to produce more quality offense than the best rb in the league, the gulf in impact between the two positions is just that vast. But in either case, the Titans run these past two years has been mostly about the passing game, not Henry himself. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Basileus777:
This isn't a counter to my post. The quality of your RB doesn't actually make much of a difference when it comes to using PA. Pretty much all effective offenses make good use of PA. Hell, analytics tells us that there isn't even a strong correlation between running the ball and play action effectiveness.
And tbh the 12th best QB is going to produce more quality offense than the best rb in the league, the gulf in impact between the two positions is just that vast. But in either case, the Titans run these past two years has been mostly about Tannehill.
Maybe.
But take away Tannehill and insert decent QB and TEN still wins 9-10 games.
Take away Henry and insert average RB, and TEN doesn't even break even.
NFL defenses prepare for Henry, not Tannehill. It's part of the reason Tannehill is as efficient as he is, so long as they don't have to play from way behind. How DCs prep for a team tells you everything you need to know about who is the most dangerous player on a team. [Reply]
But take away Tannehill and insert decent QB and TEN still wins 9-10 games.
Take away Henry and insert average RB, and TEN doesn't even break even.
NFL defenses prepare for Henry, not Tannehill. It's part of the reason Tannehill is as efficient as he is, so long as they don't have to play from way behind. How DCs prep for a team tells you everything you need to know about who is the most dangerous player on a team.
We saw who the Titans were before Tannehill with Henry and how huge of a jump the offense made with Tannehill. If anything it's the other way around, we know that Henry without a decent QB leads to bad offense. You'd get a far lesser dropoff with Tannehill and a lesser RB. The Titans don't come anywhere near 10 wins with a lesser QB.
And the Chiefs in their playoff game against the Titans were more worried about Tannehill off PA than Henry, they didn't sell out to stop the run. Defensive coordinators know that the passing game is what leads to points and not rushing yards. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Basileus777:
We saw who the Titans were before Tannehill with Henry and how huge of a jump the offense made with Tannehill. If anything it's the other way around, we know that Henry without a decent QB leads to bad offense. You'd get a far lesser dropoff with Tannehill and a lesser RB. The Titans don't come anywhere near 10 wins with a lesser QB.
And the Chiefs in their playoff game against the Titans were more worried about Tannehill off PA than Henry, they didn't sell out to stop the run. Defensive coordinators know that the passing game is what leads to points and not rushing yards.
Uh, but they did. in the second half, the third Q, I believe, Spags went goal-line D twice to stop Henry. From mid-field. In my book that's selling out to stop Henry. Spags didn't turn the DLs loose on Tannehill until after the Chiefs had a two score lead.
And we'd have to go back and see just who they had on the offense for TEN pre-Tannehill besides Mariota to be sure of why they weren't very good. And I'm not interested enough in this conversation to do that.
But as I said above, DCs don't talk about Tannehill when they talk about the most dangerous player for TEN. They talk about stopping Henry. Since it's their job to stop offenses, I think I'll take their word for it. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Megatron96:
Uh, but they did. in the second half, the third Q, I believe, Spags went goal-line D twice to stop Henry. From mid-field. In my book that's selling out to stop Henry. Spags didn't turn the DLs loose on Tannehill until after the Chiefs had a two score lead.
And we'd have to go back and see just who they had on the offense for TEN pre-Tannehill besides Mariota to be sure of why they weren't very good. And I'm not interested enough in this conversation to do that.
But as I said above, DCs don't talk about Tannehill when they talk about the most dangerous player for TEN. They talk about stopping Henry. Since it's their job to stop offenses, I think I'll take their word for it.
I don't remember any goalline defenses, what I remember is the lack of heavy boxes for most of the first half.
The Titans had the same team, Tannehill took over midseason.
What coaches say in press conferences doesn't mean much of anything tbh. It's not even worth paying attention to. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
Yet, Todd Bowles thought it was a good idea to throw single coverage at Tyreek Hill for most of the night.
Just saying...
I can't speak to execution per every DC. But in the pre-game presser Todd said everything every DC says about the Chiefs. "We gotta stop Mahomes from getting outside the pocket, we have to keep a lid on the big plays by Hill, Kelce and Hardman." Words to that effect. How he tried to do it was strange, but he knew who he needed to stop, which was my point.
I'm not saying that Spags didn't respect Tannehill, because I'm sure he did, but he knew that to make Tannehill just average he had to stop the run, so he had to stop Henry. He just didn't try to do it for an entire game, like everyone assumed he would. He did it to start the 2nd half. And kept doing it until we had a two score lead, then he focused on harassing Tannehill. [Reply]