Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
I went over it a bit when you traded for him, but the bullpen conversion wasn't good for him once he figured out how to succeed, IMO.
Just shows yet again that baseball front offices aren’t nearly as smart as we think. Or that pitching is just too damn volatile. As Scott Boras once said: “In 100 years of baseball only two facts emerge: 1, you can’t have too much starting pitching and 2, no owner has ever made any money”
Originally Posted by :
He needed a 3rd offering and found one with an excellent curveball. And he knew it too; he fully understood the value of his curve. Then with the move to the bullpen and a rough patch in CHC he ended up losing the feel for it and feel is absolutely vital for a curveball pitcher. When he lost his confidence and kept getting sent out there for a contending Cubs team, he never had the runway or situation to try to rediscover the feel for that curve - he couldn't get beat with it in the 7th inning of important games.
Never have understood that. Just flash a 3rd or 4tg pitch for show and that’s good enough. Jason Vargas doesn’t have 3-4 legit pitches, it’s FB-Change with occasional CB flashed on the edge of a plate.
Originally Posted by :
I felt like a return to the rotation and a spot on a rebuilding squad could be huge for him to let him get that curve back. More pitches, more time to work between outings, a little more rope if he's struggling. All that will allow him to find that curve and then pitch off it.
If he's stuck trying to succeed strictly fastball/changeup, he's a pinata.
Every time I saw him i said the same thing “Why is Danny Duffy more successful when they’re the same damn guy?” Honestly I’d lay even odds on who produces more WAR the next 3 years and Duffy makes 15/per [Reply]
Originally Posted by Prison Bitch:
Never have understood that. Just flash a 3rd or 4tg pitch for show and that’s good enough. Jason Vargas doesn’t have 3-4 legit pitches, it’s FB-Change with occasional CB flashed on the edge of a plate.
Because neither his change or his fastball are very good.
He doesn't get enough movement on his fastball to turn it into a worm-burner and he doesn't have a big enough gap between his fastball/change (or enough drop on the change) to get guys in a rocking chair with their timing.
If he had a more dynamic fastball or better changeup command, that would be one thing. But both of those pitches are just okay - he needs the third offering to actually matter. And frankly, if your fastball/changeup combination is only average, that 3rd offering had better be pretty damn good as a lefty.
Like Duncan said - he kinda lost his octane early in his career. At that point you'd better have the kitchen sink to throw at them. A relatively straight 92 mph fastball paired with an 8 mph gap and nominal gloveside run on your change makes you a batting practice pitcher unless you have Tom Glavine's command (Montgomery doesn't), Zack Britton's turbo sinker (Montgomery doesn't) or a 3rd pitch that you can count on. Montgomery needs the latter to be a true asset.
As for Duffy - they weren't the same guy when Duffy got his deal. Duffy threw 94 and unlike many lefties was able to bury that 94 inside on righties. If a lefty can do that, he can survive fastball changeup. Additionally, Duffy has a credible major league slider.
Duffy's just about always maintained a 10 mph gap between his fastball and change and that's the magic number, IMO. Do that and you can live there - do less than that and there's just not quite enough separation. Now combine that 10 mph gap with a delivery that allows him to bust RHs inside before they can get the bat out in front of the plate and drive it (the problem most LHs face trying to pitch inside to righties) and you have a damn tough lefty to deal with.
Montgomery's never had those bullets so he's had to have a better pitch mix. If he doesn't, he's shitty. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
This is what would really worry me.
I've seen plenty of "The time to strike on Merrifield is here for the Royals..." sorts of articles when in reality the time to strike with Merrifield was almost certainly at the trade deadline in 2018 or the winter meetings that offseason.
I think you're on the downhill side of his value either way and it's only gonna get worse going forward. Worse still, I feel like some teams that would've been good fits (the Cardinals and Brewers spring to mind) have become much more satisfied with their in-house options (Wong/Hueira). So the pool of suitors has probably diminished somewhat as well. I guess the Yankees and Sox may be interested, especially if the Yankees let Didi walk and move Torres over to SS. He'd be a fantastic fit in that lineup full of sluggers.
That said, he does have some skills that age pretty well. His batting eye and bat control are strong and those tend to stick around longer than a lot of other skills. And if he can keep his HR pop in the 15+ range, he'll be a credible enough threat that pitchers can't just groove him strikes so his OBP will remain an asset.
Brett Gardner's the kind of offensive profile you'd hope that Whit could develop as he ages. Gardner's speed fell off pretty hard in his early 30s but he never lost his eye so his OBP stayed strong. Then he started swinging a bit harder and traded some strikeouts for some ISO to stay a valuable offensive contributor into his mid-30s.
Merrifield's a smart, heady player so that possibility is there. But there are more people who kinda faded away when they lost their wheels than there are guys who became 20+ HR hitters to make up for lost speed.
That might be true regarding his value - though setting the costs of his salary added some back due to the predictability and likely discount on arbitration years - but I still don’t think it affects my decision to pull the trigger or not.
If what I’m looking at back is 2-3 guys whose 80 percent outcome is bench player or worse, just don’t see the incentive.
Yeah, it means I have fewer lotto tickets in my system and yes it means Merrifield’s production ends up wasted. But It is too close to “making the best bad deal you can because you want to make a deal no matter what” for me. [Reply]
Re: Merrifield’s speed, we’ll see how he trends this year. I’m not ready to chalk all of his baserunning/SB decrease up to declining speed.
Looking at his stat cast page and sprint speed, he was at 28.6 this year (which is the same as Ozzie Albies, Javy Baez, Jose Altuve, and Ramel Tapia, guys who run really well, and better than many speed guys, including Jarrod Dyson, Ramon Laureano).
That’s down from a peak of 29.2 in 2017 (2 percent). He bounced from 29-29.2-29 from 16-18 as well. That’s not a significant decrease, really. He’s still a fast, fast dude.
There are offer factors that contributed to his drop in SB. He had more XBH hits this year. He was on base a little less. He had better run producers behind him in Dozier and Soler. He also probably saw a lot more fastballs when on base with Nicky Lopez hitting than he did the year before with Adaleberto Mondesi hitting 2nd.
It also should be mentioned that playing Of - which Merrifield did primarily this season - higher wear and tear on your body than manning 2B. That could be a factor as well. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
Because neither his change or his fastball are very good.
I’d quibble on his FB a bit, when he locates it he’s got a fine FB. I’ve never been a believer in the “3-pitch” starter thing because I’ve seen plenty who make it without, ie Yordano Ventura, Vargas and maybe including Duffy. They all have 1 superior pitch but so does Montgomery IMO.
Originally Posted by :
He doesn't get enough movement on his fastball to turn it into a worm-burner and he doesn't have a big enough gap between his fastball/change (or enough drop on the change) to get guys in a rocking chair with their timing.
Agreed.
Originally Posted by :
If he had a more dynamic fastball or better changeup command, that would be one thing. But both of those pitches are just okay - he needs the third offering to actually matter. And frankly, if your fastball/changeup combination is only average, that 3rd offering had better be pretty damn good as a lefty.
I think location matters a ton with his FB. There aren’t even 2 arms in our system like his. I wonder what a Dave Duncan could do with him.
Originally Posted by :
Like Duncan said - he kinda lost his octane early in his career. At that point you'd better have the kitchen sink to throw at them. A relatively straight 92 mph fastball paired with an 8 mph gap and nominal gloveside run on your change makes you a batting practice pitcher unless you have Tom Glavine's command (Montgomery doesn't), Zack Britton's turbo sinker (Montgomery doesn't) or a 3rd pitch that you can count on.
Nobody has a Britton sinker or Glavine command tho. You’re referencing elite ASG players and he won’t ever be one.
Originally Posted by :
Montgomery needs the latter to be a true asset.
Look at the position KC is in right now. We don’t have the ability to get true “assets” right now. Brad Keller is our best pitcher, no? An asset to us is 169IP of 4.60 fIp and I’d bet on Montgomery doing that over anyone outside of Keller.
Originally Posted by :
As for Duffy - they weren't the same guy when Duffy got his deal. Duffy threw 94 and unlike many lefties was able to bury that 94 inside on righties. If a lefty can do that, he can survive fastball changeup. Additionally, Duffy has a credible major league slider.
Duffy's just about always maintained a 10 mph gap between his fastball and change and that's the magic number, IMO. Do that and you can live there - do less than that and there's just not quite enough separation. Now combine that 10 mph gap with a delivery that allows him to bust RHs inside before they can get the bat out in front of the plate and drive it (the problem most LHs face trying to pitch inside to righties) and you have a damn tough lefty to deal with.
Agreed.
Originally Posted by :
Montgomery's never had those bullets so he's had to have a better pitch mix. If he doesn't, he's shitty.
I’d quibble with the term “shitty”. It’s all relative. He was above avg from 16-8 as a swing guy. And he was fine for us in 19. These are the types of guys we have to take shots on and let them ride 160 IP. I said the same about Homer Bailey. The alternative is Glenn “where do you want it?” Sparkman. [Reply]
The 3-pitch mantra really speaks to upside and is dependent on how good each pitch is.
A guy with a plus or better fastball and a plus or better breaking ball can get away with a “show-me” pitch for his third pitch easier than a guy with an average fastball and breaking ball.
Command plays up every pitch. Tunneling (having each pitch come out of the same delivery point) plays up every pitch. Having a plus plus pitch also let’s you get away with lesser secondaries or command.
Top of rotation guys are going to have some
Combination of 2 plus tools and 2 average tools.
Mid rotation guys will have at least 1 plus tool and a few average ones.
Ventura had a double-plus fastball and a plus curve. He was flashing a plus changeup and improved command at the end of the 16 season, which makes his death all the more tragic.
Vargas has a plus changeup but a below average FB. That makes his command critical, as well as spotting his CB, critical. When he doesn’t have those, he gets crushed.
Duffy, when he was pitching like a ToR guy in 14, 16, and 17, had a plus fastball (some nights even double-plus), and a breaking ball and changeup that were both average. He usually was able to ramp one up to plus status each time out (and when he had both, he did things like strike out 17 guys in a game). The past few years, his FB has lost just a smidge, and he hasn’t consistently found his change or slider. That’s why he has been so up and down. He hasn’t ever developed the plus command he’d need to overcome the slight loss of “stuff.” [Reply]
Originally Posted by tk13:
They're in deep deep trouble. There are supposedly emails too confirming they wanted to do this.
I don't even know what the punishment should be. You can't do a slap on the wrist for this.
Think about the peripherals of this, not just the obvious. Guys hit for higher averages, more home runs, more ribeye's.....all of it leading to larger contracts for hitters. All because they were tipping pitches.
I'd think Hinsch should be gone for starters. Maybe the whole front office? I don't know on this one. [Reply]
Are we sure it was important to their first title? I was under the impression that it was their more recent contact rate change that's at issue - so maybe the 2019 AL pennant could be in question. [Reply]
Originally Posted by dallaschiefsfan:
Are we sure it was important to their first title? I was under the impression that it was their more recent contact rate change that's at issue - so maybe the 2019 AL pennant could be in question.
It changed in the 2017 season, I often gave them credit for it on here.
When the Royals beat them they had the 2nd or 3rd most strikeouts. In 2017 it totally flipped and they had the fewest strikeouts in the league. It was like flipping a switch. I thought it was 100% an analytics thing seeing how much success the Royals had with that philosophy. [Reply]