Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
It's hard to know what to do with that given that it's an article in a student newspaper (which has since been removed), but it directly contradicts what the CDC's own page about it.
I'm guessing that the data she was using didn't mean what she thought it did. It's pretty laughable to think that deaths aren't up this year if you just talk to people who work at hospitals. [Reply]
Originally Posted by dirk digler:
My older brother texted me this morning and he and his wife tested positive. She is a nurse in KC so brought it home with her probably. So far they both have flu symptoms but other wise doing decent.
Hope the symptoms stay at that level and go no further.
I use to come in through the basement after work, take all my clothes off, throw them in the laundry, take a shower before seeing the family. I was never concerned about myself getting AIDs, TB etc at work. It was worried about bringing something home. [Reply]
An epidemic is defined as the wide spread of an infectious disease. The final letter of Covid is ‘D’ for ‘disease’. A disease requires symptoms. Public Health England’s National COVID-19 case definition required the presence of symptoms. Somehow symptoms have become irrelevant. We are now chasing down the healthy, immune population who are being over-tested. This includes those in hospital with other symptoms and for other reasons. If we tested for influenza in the same way and with the same implications, we would have to lock down every winter.
A false positive pseudo-epidemic is a well described phenomenon in the medical literature which results in an exponential rise in diagnosed cases and deaths but no excess deaths. PCR testing is renowned for it and the “second wave” of Swine Flu in 2009 was entirely a false positive pseudo-epidemic only stopped by stopping the testing. SAGE have been focused on the constant low false positive rate of the testing equipment but the false positive rate of the whole testing process is variable and can rise.
2) The tests are not measuring the disease. It is nonsense to rely simply on positive test cases without requiring the presence of symptoms to define the scale of the epidemic. However, if positive tests are to be used, determination of the test accuracy rate is absolutely essential (especially the false positive rate). These should be independently determined. This work must be current to assess the current rates. Those defending the tests claim they have been quality checked by the use of “whole genome sequencing” – but that test has never been used as a diagnostic test in this way either, so it’s like using one unvalidated process to validate another.
(The final page of this briefing provides some more background on why even an apparently low FPR can be so misleading.)
Symptom trackers, NHS triage data and GP consultation data all show that patients attending with Covid like conditions back to background levels; yet positive test results continued to rise during this time. This strongly implies that the test results are picking up largely false positives.
Using a figure of 2% for FPR, a 20% false negative rate, and incidence in the population of 0.5%, around 83% of all positive tests results would be misdiagnoses.
This document has been authored by:
Clare Craig BM BCh FRCPath (clare.craig@gmail.com)
Jonathan Engler MBChB LLB (jengler@outlook.com)
Mike Yeadon BSc Hons (Biochem-tox) PhD (Pharmacol) (yeadon_m@yahoo.co.uk)
Christian McNeill LL.B and Dip LP (christian.mcneill@icloud.com)
Originally Posted by TwistedChief:
This is exactly the mindset with my in-laws. It's baffling. As if somehow we exist in a different dimension than our neighbors with Covid.
Had that same conversation with family in Springfield. Just wear a mask on the plane, you'll be fine. It'll just be us family. About 25 of us. I ask, Don't you have a shortage of hospital beds? Serious outbreak going on? Response.... Most of us wear the masks most of the time in public. They get claustrophobic sometimes and people dont want to wear them and anyway, they don't work its just so we can feel safe. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DaFace:
For your daily dose of politicians taking the "do as I say, not as I do" approach, Denver's mayor decided to travel for Thanksgiving...after telling everyone not to travel for thanksgiving. Infuriating.
Gee.... our Mayor did it too. as did others.(not following their own "instructions")
....and people wonder why some think it's overblown. [Reply]
Originally Posted by stevieray:
Gee.... our Mayor did it too. as did others.(not following their own "instructions")
....and people wonder why some think it's overblown.
Some people also think it was caused by 5G towers, and some people don't think rules should apply to them. In all cases, those people are either morons, assholes or both. [Reply]
Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins: Some people also think it was caused by 5G towers, and some people don't think rules should apply to them. In all cases, those people are either morons, assholes or both.