Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
Originally Posted by Titty Meat:
The pads are poppin in here today. You can tell the lockdown is taking a toll and people are taking it out on eachother lol
Did you not see EDAVE's post it could get ugly in here. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Titty Meat:
Not sure this is true. Singapore had been through this before with SARS. It wasnt just the lockdown flattening the curve but also the aggressive tracking of the virus which has helped them.
And yet...
Ultimately I think the tracking/tracing model is extraordinarily noble and I applaud the approach. I'd love it to work.
But I think the invasion of Normandy is probably the most involved and successful combination of logistics and administration ever seen in recorded human history.
And it would be dwarfed by the efforts needed to successfully contact trace anyone who's tested positive. Especially when you want to talk about 'exponential models' of who sees who who sees who. I mean the premise of all this fear was that 1 person who gets infected can expose 10 people who expose 10 more and suddenly that one person yields a needed dragnet of 100 in the span of 3 'generations'. With a 3-5 day incubation period compounded at every F level, aren't you just pushing water uphill? There's no way for that to eventually become overwhelming.
And we conceded that point early one when we said the possibility of exponential spread was inevitable so it was vital to just lock everyone down.
But now we're going to ignore that same math when trying to talk about the efforts needed to successfully trace the contact/behavior of people? Especially those who are potentially dishonest or forgetful?
The idea of a wholesale contact tracing/testing effort being some sort of panacea is folly. Could it bring this back a bit? Probably. But it would still only remain manageable in a situation with extremely tight social isolation measures in place.
Because the trick isn't to fix this for 2-3 weeks and never has been. It's to develop a long-term plan and I just don't see that plan being viable over the needed timeline. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Marcellus:
That was taken into account in the original model. I know they now claim more people are following social distancing than expected but I can't see how that's accounts for a 20X difference compared to the model. Especially since MO did not order a shelter in place until 2 days ago and been consistently railed for doing the least in terms of social distancing as a state.
In Los Angeles county, which has more than 21 million people, 99.9% of the people here are following the Stay At Home order.
Traffic accidents have been reduced by well more than 50%, crime is down 23% and the air quality is among the best in the world.
If you don't think that Social Distancing and the Stay At Home order are effective, you're not paying attention. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud:
In Los Angeles county, which has more than 21 million people, 99.9% of the people here are following the Stay At Home order.
Traffic accidents have been reduced by well more than 50%, crime is down 23% and the air quality is among the best in the world.
If you don't think that Social Distancing and the Stay At Home order are effective, you're not paying attention.
Unemployment claims are also up 40%+ as a result of social distancing mandates. [Reply]
Fauci, now so sour on hydroxychloroquine (+/- azithro) for covid19, despite its clinical promise, gushed in 4/2013 when a coronavirus [MERS] antiviral combo [ribavirin /interferon-alpha)] tested “only in cells in lab dishes” prevented viral replication! https://t.co/c9aN1b0nvZpic.twitter.com/KBTLDUeIUW
Originally Posted by vonBobo:
This is false (but still a chance!)
The flattening of the curve and prolonging of the spread is to protect the medical system from being overwhelmed and collapsing.
You're describing mitigation efforts that would ultimately be best defined by the proposed modified CDC social distancing guidelines.
What we're doing right now, with attempts at a complete lockdown, is not 'flattening the curve' long-term. It's not mitigation over a meaningful timeline. It's attempted elimination.
What I'm describing is the ultimate effect of a lockdown followed by re-opening of the economy. If you enforce lockdowns to the point of taking most regions at/near 0 when some were at 1, other as 5 and others at 10, then yes, you've forced everyone else back into the same timeline.
It's the racing equivalent of a caution flag that bunches everyone back up. Sure, while the flag is out you've reduced the likelihood of a catastrophic impact. But when the green flag drops and everyone's stuck together again, you've greatly increased the probability of a massive pile-up. [Reply]
Fauci, now so sour on hydroxychloroquine (+/- azithro) for covid19, despite its clinical promise, gushed in 4/2013 when a coronavirus [MERS] antiviral combo [ribavirin /interferon-alpha)] tested “only in cells in lab dishes” prevented viral replication! https://t.co/c9aN1b0nvZpic.twitter.com/KBTLDUeIUW
Originally Posted by PAChiefsGuy:
Im just saying you can be a little wordy in your responses something you admitted yourself. Do you really think anyone is going to read that longass post? Just some friendly advice
I've never met a lawyer that wasn't verbose :-) [Reply]
