Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
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China did great work and managed to gain complete control of the virus, Levitt said. “Currently, I am most worried about the US. It must isolate as many people as possible to buy time for preparations. Otherwise, it can end up in a situation where 20,000 infected people will descend on the nearest hospital at the same time and the healthcare system will collapse.”
Israel currently does not have enough cases to provide the data needed to make estimates, Levitt said, but from what he can tell, the Ministry of Health is dealing with the pandemic in a correct, positive way. “The more severe the defensive measures taken, the more they will buy time to prepare for needed treatment and develop a vaccine.”
Levitt avoids making global forecasts. In China, he said, the number of new infections will soon reach zero, and South Korea is past the median point and can already see the end. Regarding the rest of the world, it is still hard to tell, he said. “It will end when all those who are sick will only meet people they have already infected. The goal is not to reach the situation the cruise ship experienced.” [Reply]
Originally Posted by petegz28:
You can't rule it out but I think that has to be a worst case scenario type of number. Keep in mind this is also in a letter that is asking for $1bil and expansion of several federal programs. While I have not qualms about giving the money and such if I were going to ask for money I would also paint the worst case scenario.
But if his contention is that even with all the social distancing and what not that you still have a better than 50% chance of getting it then something doesn't smell right.
That was my point. He threw out this crazy number while asking for money. Politician gotta politician. But some here think you're being crazy for asking for any bit of evidence to support that giant number that nobody else is throwing out there. He's saying California alone is going to have more cases of Covid in 8 weeks then the rest of the whole entire country will have of the regular flu for the entire year.
Extrapolating that, it would mean we would have 150 million cases of Covid in the U.S. in 8 weeks. It's bullshit to throw that number out there. It will only serve to feed into the fear and panic. [Reply]
Change the variables and you’ll get different numbers which is why they’re trying to get the rate of spread down. Just adding one day to the doubling makes a huge impact in your final number.
And I agree with everyone that it’s an absolutely worst case scenario that is unlikely to be realized. My only point was that it has happened like this in other places and, if not mitigated, could happen here. [Reply]
Originally Posted by RINGLEADER:
Well again, it’s just math.
Change the variables and you’ll get different numbers which is why they’re trying to get the rate of spread down. Just adding one day to the doubling makes a huge impact in your final number.
And I agree with everyone that it’s an absolutely worst case scenario that is unlikely to be realized. My only point was that it has happened like this in other places and, if not mitigated, could happen here.
Yes, I ran the numbers myself, too. But we haven't seen consistent, day after day, doubling anywhere. Even China or Italy, right? [Reply]
Originally Posted by Donger:
“The rate of infection of the virus in the Hubei province increased by 30% each day – that is a scary statistic. I am not an influenza expert but I can analyse numbers and that is exponential growth,” he was quoted as saying. At this rate, the entire world should have been infected within 90 days, he added.
But then, the trend changed. When Levitt started analysing the data on February 1, Hubei had 1,800 new cases each day and within six days this number reached 4,700, he said. “And then, on February 7, the number of new infections started to drop linearly and did not stop. A week later, the same happened with the number of the deaths. This dramatic change in the curve marked the median point and enabled better prediction of when the pandemic will end. Based on that, I concluded that the situation in all of China will improve within two weeks. And, indeed, now there are very few new infection cases.”
Amazing what happens when they lock people inside their homes!
I really hope this can be duplicated without being stuffed into a box. [Reply]
Originally Posted by RINGLEADER:
Well again, it’s just math.
Change the variables and you’ll get different numbers which is why they’re trying to get the rate of spread down. Just adding one day to the doubling makes a huge impact in your final number.
And I agree with everyone that it’s an absolutely worst case scenario that is unlikely to be realized. My only point was that it has happened like this in other places and, if not mitigated, could happen here.
What country has had 56% of the population get it? I don't remember reading about 500 million people in China getting it. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Donger:
Yes, I ran the numbers myself, too. But we haven't seen consistent, day after day, doubling anywhere. Even China or Italy, right?
The doubling isn’t day to day. More like every 4-5 days, China and S Korea notwithstanding. [Reply]
Originally Posted by jjjayb:
What country has had 56% of the population get it?
Yeah none. That’s why I said I agree that is BS and could only happen if everyone was running around going to meetups with uninfected which isn’t happening. I’m not doom and gloom. [Reply]
Originally Posted by jjjayb:
What country has had 56% of the population get it?
I am gonna nitpick here a bit again, since I don't understand numbers but the current estimated population of the state of CA is 39.94 million. 56% of that is 21.8 million. He said 25 million or roughly 56%.
Originally Posted by RINGLEADER:
The doubling isn’t day to day. More like every 4-5 days, China and S Korea notwithstanding.
Oops, my mistake, sorry. I get the math, but we do have some pretty solid case history from other countries who got the bug long before we did to work with, and I simply don't see it.
I think we should start a new thread giving predictions of total US cases. The winner gets a lifetime supply of TP. [Reply]
