NFL Week 11 early odds: Chiefs-Rams in Mexico City gets highest over/under in at least 30 years
When the Rams and Chiefs meet in Mexico City next week, the two teams might break a record before they even step on the field.
Oddsmakers in Las Vegas are fully expecting an offensive explosion and they've set an over-under for the game that reflects that. The showdown between Kansas City and Los Angeles has opened with an over/under of 64 points, which marks just the third time this century that an NFL game has been given a total of 60 or more points.
According to ESPN.com, the over/under is also the highest total in any NFL game since at least 1986. The total might actually be the highest over/under in NFL history, but it's hard to say for sure because record-keeping as it relates to gambling was spotty during the league's earlier years.
Of course, it's easy to see why oddsmakers think that these two teams are going to light up the scoreboard at Estadio Azteca. For one, the Chiefs will be rolling into the game with the highest-scoring offense in the NFL (36.3 points per game). The Rams have been almost as impressive this season, averaging 33.2 points, which ranks third in the NFL.
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If you're wondering whether or not you should bet the over or the under, recent history seems to suggest that the over would be the safe bet. There have been a total of six games over the past 15 years that had an over/under of 58 points or more and five of those six games have hit on the over, according to the Pro Football Reference database. One of the games that hit on the over came earlier this year when the Patriots beat the Chiefs 43-40 in a game that had an over/under of 59.5 points.
There's still one game left for Vegas and bettors to cash in on Week 10. It's Monday Night Football between the Giants and 49ers. Sportsline's advanced computer model simulated the game 10,000 times and says one side of the spread has all the value. See which one it is.
Before this week, the honor for the highest known over/under went to a Rams-49ers game played in October 2000. Although the Rams would win the game 34-24, the two teams fell short of hitting the 63-point over/under.
With that in mind, let's check out the early odds and fascinating trends for all the other games being played in Week 11.
I would stay away entirely. If forced, the under would be the pick but you would feel awful stupid if the game ended 38-30. It's like the Chiefs spread this past week. You can't be the Chiefs to lay 17 but if you bet the Cards(obviously the win, in hindsight)and the game ended 35-10, you would've been left feeling like a boob. [Reply]
Originally Posted by baitism:
Take the under all day with the field conditions.
See, that is a theory I have always disagreed with.
It has been my contention that bad field conditions hurt the Defense more than the Offense. The offense knows where they are going, but the D has to react.
It's being set up to be a high scoring game everywhere you look. I have Goff and Gurley on my fantasy team. Both are projected to put up 27 fantasy points in the game. I would imagine that Mahomes and Hill have similar projections. [Reply]
