The possibility of keeping Alex Smith. - Page 11

Alright, let's get down to some nitty gritty here, folks.

What if Alex Smith is amazing in 2017? The Chiefs hand will be forced -- keep him. 2018 will be the final year of his contract and it's a $20m cap hit. Not unreasonable for a guy playing extremely well.

So, what would the Chiefs have to do?

First, we pretty much have the cap met RIGHT NOW, assuming we bring back absolutely no one who is a free agent. So our cap is royally fucked.

The two most popular ideas right now are cutting DJ/Hali, or letting them both retire, or whatever. Cutting them saves us a combined $15m. We likely have DJ's replacements already on the roster, and Ford will be entering his contract year in 2018.

We can also cut (or trade) Allen Bailey if we want to elevate RNR to a starting slot. Trading Bailey saves us $8m (and nets us a draft pick or whatever). Cutting him saves us $6m.

If Eric Fisher has a really good 2017, maybe we just extend/restructure him at the end of the season. That would lower his cap hit in 2018 (right now it's slated for $14m).

I wouldn't touch Allen Bailey, but I'd cut DJ/Hali and extend/restructure Fisher. That allows us to keep Mr. Smith and have roughly $20m in cap space, $5m of which can go to our rookie class.

I think it's non-negotiable that we bring back Terrance Mitchell, but he shouldn't cost a ton. Bennie Logan might be a good idea -- although, again, we could just play RNR at the nose and be fine (which is what I would do if we kept Smith on the roster).

So my recommendation, keeping Alex rather than trading him:

1. cut/retire DJ
2. cut/retire Hali
3. restructure/extend Fisher
4. extend Terrance Mitchell
5. let basically all of our FAs walk: De'Anthony, Fulton, Logan, Sherman, Albert Wilson, Gaines, Colquitt
6. make a few choice re-signings (Santos, KPL, maybe Gaines?)

That'll leave us thin at DL, OL, and OLB -- which I hate. And the best draft pick we'll have in 2018 will be at the very bottom of the 2nd.

But hey, if your QB is balling out, who cares?

Food for thought.
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Andy sold in Mcnabb high.

If alex plays at this level all year, that's the highest it's gonna get value wise. What are the chances he does it again next year, a year older?
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Originally Posted by O.city:
What are the chances he does it again next year, a year older?

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If they do keep him, here'd be my plan...

Sign:

Beau Allen, NT (PHI)
(reference A. Woods, D. Square)
2 years, $4 million, $1.5 million signing bonus
~ $1.5 million 2018

Re-Sign:
Anthony Sherman, FB
(reference P. DiMarco)
4 years, $8.5 million, $2 million signing bonus
~ $2 million 2018

Tyler Bray, QB
(reference R. Griffen, K. Clemens, B. Weeden, C. Daniel, etc)
2 years, $2.4 million
~ $1.2 million 2018

Rakeem Nunez-Roches, DL
RFA Tender Original Round
~ $1.8 million 2018

Terrance Mitchell, CB
(reference B. Carr, J. Lane, M. Cooper, C. Hayward, etc)
4 years, $22 million, $6 million signing bonus, $8 million guaranteed.
~ $3.8 million 2018

Terrance Smith, ILB
ERFA Tender
~$630k 2018

Kevin Pierre-Louis, ILB
1 year, vet minimum $790k

Phillip Gaines, CB
1 year, vet minimum $790k

Estimated 2018 Net Increase Against Cap: $12.5 million
Total Cap Space needed: $12.5 + $5 million buffer + $3 million draft = $20.5 million

Let walk:

LB R. Wilson (RFA)
WR D. Thomas
WR A. Wilson
DB S. Terrell
DB K. Acker
DL J. Jenkins
DL R. Miller
OL J. Devey
OL Z. Fulton
SP D. Colquitt

Other Transactions:

Retire/Release Derrick Johnson, ILB ($8 million cap space)
Retire/Release Tamba Hali, OLB ($7 million cap space)
Release Demetrius Harris ($2 million cap space)
Convert $6 million of Justin Houston's 2018 salary into a signing bonus (gains $4 million cap space 2018)
Total Cap Space Gained: $21 million

Roster:
QB: A. Smith, P. Mahomes, T. Bray
RB: K. Hunt, S. Ware, C. West
FB: A. Sherman
TE: T. Kelce, R. Travis, ?
WR: T. Hill, C. Conley, J. Chesson, D. Robinson, M. Kemp?, G. Deiter?
OL: E. Fisher, P. Ehinger, M. Morse, L. Duvernay-Tardif, M. Schwartz, B. Witzman, C. Erving, ?, ?
DL: R. Nunez-Roches, C. Jones, A. Bailey, T. Kpassagnon, B. Allen
OLB: J. Houston, D. Ford, D. Nicolas, F. Zombo, ?
ILB: U. Eligwe, R. Ragland, T. Smith, K. Pierre-Louis, ?
CB: M. Peters, T. Mitchell, S. Nelson, D. White, P. Gaines, A. Lampkin
DB: E. Berry, R. Parker, D. Sorensen, E. Murray
ST: H. Butker, J. Winchester, ?

Leaves you some holes at TE, OL, OLB, ILB, and P and maybe WR.
You could probably fill 2 of those with cheap vet free agents (esp WR, TE or OL) at the minimum and still have a little buffer for the season, and I don't think the draft will cost the $3 million I have allocated (net cap effect, not total money). You could sign Kemp and Deiter to the 53 for next year and only cost you 960k, so that's a big area to keep the savings IMO.
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Originally Posted by OldSchool:
If he goes off this year and they think that Mahomes is ready, the FO will likely try their best to trade him for 2nd round picks. Teams who would likely make the trade:

Jags
Texans (depending on how much/if Watson ends up sucking)
Cardinals (Palmer is likely done)
Jets
Bills

Texans have Watson, and two of these team will get early first round QBs. Why cant we just extend/restructure Smith?
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I love Alex. He is the reason I am a Chiefs fan. I am from Utah and went to most of his college games. I felt he was done dirty by Harbaugh and I couldn't support the 49ers after they cut him during his best season off the heels of an NFCCG. With that said... it only makes sense to trade him after this year. With the season he is having he is guaranteed to bring a first round draft pick and some role players in any package someone puts together for him. His hit to the cap next season is $20m and to get the most out of Mahomes rookie deal we would need to cut him loose. It sucks but thats the reality of this situation. Alex is worth far more to another team and conversely the Chiefs by being traded. Let's all enjoy this year of him though and hope we get our SB.
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Originally Posted by jLoy88:
I love Alex. He is the reason I am a Chiefs fan. I am from Utah and went to most of his college games. I felt he was done dirty by Harbaugh and I couldn't support the 49ers after they cut him during his best season off the heels of an NFCCG. With that said... it only makes sense to trade him after this year. With the season he is having he is guaranteed to bring a first round draft pick and some role players in any package someone puts together for him. His hit to the cap next season is $20m and to get the most out of Mahomes rookie deal we would need to cut him loose. It sucks but thats the reality of this situation. Alex is worth far more to another team and conversely the Chiefs by being traded. Let's all enjoy this year of him though and hope we get our SB.

See? This is the kind of Alex fan I like having around. This guy knows the true value of Alex to this franchise in the longterm view comes through trade. Nothing wrong with being a fan of Smith and seeing the bigger picture.
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