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Washington DC and The Holy Land>China quarantines Wuhan, a city the size of NYC
banyon 10:52 AM 01-23-2020


Updated info:

WORLD

There are currently 3,950,798 confirmed cases and 271,809 deaths from the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak as of May 8, 2020 15:03 GMT




U.S. Coronavirus Cases

As of May 8, 2020 at 14:58 GMT, there have been 1,295,101 confirmed cases and 77,059 deaths due to coronavirus COVID-19 in the United States.

AL-9,048 (371 deaths)
AK-374 (10 deaths)
AZ-9,945 (450 deaths, 1 recovered)
AR-3,694 (88 deaths)
CA - 62,477 (2,545 deaths, 6 recovered)
CO-18,371 (944 deaths)
CT- 31,784 (2,797 deaths)
DE-5,939 (202 deaths)
DC- 5,654 (285 deaths)
FL-38,828 (1,600 deaths)
GA - 31,679 (1,353 deaths)
HI- 629 (17 deaths)
ID-2,178 (67 deaths)
IL-70,873 (3,111 deaths, 2 recovered)
IN-22,503 (1,414 deaths)
IA-11,457 (243 deaths)
KS-6,359 (168 deaths)
KY- 6,128 (294 deaths, 2 recovered)
LA-30,652 (2,208 deaths)
ME-1,330 (62 deaths)
MD-30,485 (1,560 deaths, 4 recovered)
MA-73,721(4,552 deaths, 1 recovered)
MI-45,646 (4,343 deaths)
MN-9,365 (508 deaths, 24 recovered)
MS-8,686 (396 deaths)
MO-9,561 (454 deaths)
MT-457 (16 deaths)
NE-7,190 (90 deaths)
NV-5,766 (293 deaths)
NH-2,843 (114 deaths)
NJ- 135,106 (8,834 deaths)
NM-4,493 (172 deaths)
NY-337,421 (26,365 deaths)
NC-13,954 (529 deaths)
ND-1,371 (31 deaths)
OH-22,134 (1,274 deaths)
OK-4,330 (260 deaths, 1 recovered)
OR-2,989 (121 deaths)
PA-56,002 (3,592 deaths)
RI-10,779 (399 deaths)
SC-7,142 (316 deaths)
SD-2,905 (31 deaths, 6 recovered)
TN-14,096 (239 deaths)
TX-36,606 (1,030 deaths, 11 recovered)
UT-5,724 (61 deaths)
VT-919 (53 deaths)
VA-22,342 (812 deaths, 1 recovered)
WA-16,943 (904 deaths, 124 recovered)
WV-1,310 (51 deaths)
WI- 9,215 (374 deaths, 1 recovered)
WY-635 (7 deaths)

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn...ate/index.html

US recovered :148,291
[Reply]
Setsuna 11:23 AM 04-10-2020
Originally Posted by banyon:
:-) :-) That's the most apt thing you've posted in months.
[Reply]
IowaHawkeyeChief 11:43 AM 04-10-2020
Originally Posted by banyon:
There is an undercount of both cases and deaths. But I am starting to thing the case undercount is more impactful.

Looking at this info too from several days back:



I think Bergamo's count problems are an outlier of just how overwhelmed they were. So I think the undercount in France and Spain is more likely of where we are going to end up.

So, just based on todays numbers (where the deaths will lag the cases)
The US has an official count of 475,237 confirmed cases and 17,055 deaths. That gives us an official CFR of 3.5%.

Assuming a similar death undercount to Spain and France, lets say the deaths are really 34110 instead. Now lets factor in the case undercount from the Gangelt town study. Officially, we have an infection rate of .14%, or 425k out of 327 million. Germany is officially showing an infection rate of 2%, so we would need to scale that. German population is about 84 million.

So that gives us .14% = x
____ ___
2% 84 million


That yields a result of 5.8 million or 1.7% of the US population would have been infected at this point, if the extrapolation held up.

This would yield a current CFR here of .294%, which when you factor in the death lag might get you close to the .37 in the study.

This would make COVID-19 about three to four times more deadly than the flu, instead of the 10-20 times figures we were seeing.
as I have been saying, to extrapolate further, for older and compromised individuals the death rate is much higher than the flu, for those younger and healthier it is most likely less than the flu...
[Reply]
banyon 01:15 PM 04-10-2020
Originally Posted by IowaHawkeyeChief:
as I have been saying, to extrapolate further, for older and compromised individuals the death rate is much higher than the flu, for those younger and healthier it is most likely less than the flu...
I think the numbers I was playing with are too small to extrapolate by age, but I think COVID is going to be worse across all demos:


[Reply]
IowaHawkeyeChief 01:53 PM 04-10-2020
Originally Posted by banyon:
I think the numbers I was playing with are too small to extrapolate by age, but I think COVID is going to be worse across all demos:

How do you already know the denominator? Do you have a link to the numbers as the graph is amibuous?

Looks like they put a lot of faith in China's numbers who are listed as a source. Do you think we have only had 486,000 cases in the US through today?
[Reply]
banyon 01:57 PM 04-10-2020
Originally Posted by IowaHawkeyeChief:
How do you already know the denominator?
Just estimating, but in the prior example we cut the CFR in half, so even cutting the CFR in half on the right side of that chart, those numbers would still far exceed the gunners on the left for lower age groups.
[Reply]
IowaHawkeyeChief 02:01 PM 04-10-2020
Originally Posted by banyon:
Just estimating, but in the prior example we cut the CFR in half, so even cutting the CFR in half on the right side of that chart, those numbers would still far exceed the gunners on the left for lower age groups.
So you think we have less than a million cases in the US?

Do you have a link to the graph with the actual numbers they used?
[Reply]
BleedingRed 02:03 PM 04-10-2020
Originally Posted by IowaHawkeyeChief:
How do you already know the denominator? Do you have a link to the numbers as the graph is amibuous?

Looks like they put a lot of faith in China's numbers who are listed as a source. Do you think we have only had 486,000 cases in the US through today?
No I believe over 5-10 Million have already had it in the United States between Jan-Now
[Reply]
GloryDayz 02:05 PM 04-10-2020
Fuck China. They're fucking animals!
[Reply]
banyon 02:06 PM 04-10-2020
Originally Posted by IowaHawkeyeChief:
How do you already know the denominator? Do you have a link to the numbers as the graph is amibuous?

Looks like they put a lot of faith in China's numbers who are listed as a source. Do you think we have only had 486,000 cases in the US through today?
No see above. If the German study is right I put it a 5.8 mil, but I think there a little time lag between us and Germany so itís probably a shade under that.
[Reply]
IowaHawkeyeChief 02:09 PM 04-10-2020
Originally Posted by banyon:
I think the numbers I was playing with are too small to extrapolate by age, but I think COVID is going to be worse across all demos:

Part of the reason I ask for more info, as your statement is not correct, as the graph is incomplete. 0-10 is not on the Covid side, probably because there is no deaths or miniscule. I heard of one 9 month old that got classified wrong, and fixed, but no other deaths. 10-17 is probably lower once you factor in apples to apples with the flu and include 0-10 year olds. Same with ages through 40. All of this with a denominator no one believes to be anywhere close to the actual number of cases. If you double the denominator, as you said, it would appear that anyone 59 or under would be the same as the flu and many categories less.
[Reply]
IowaHawkeyeChief 02:11 PM 04-10-2020
Originally Posted by banyon:
No see above. If the German study is right I put it a 5.8 mil, but I think there a little time lag between us and Germany so itís probably a shade under that.
I don't want to mix two studies. Don't you have the data link that supports the graph of CFR by ages?
[Reply]
NinerDoug 02:12 PM 04-10-2020
Heard a professor of Medicine at UC Davis on the radio this morning.

He was saying that as many as one in three tests with a negative result may be false negatives.

So the numbers are really up in the air. Certainly a lot more than the confirmed cases.
[Reply]
banyon 02:13 PM 04-10-2020
Originally Posted by IowaHawkeyeChief:
Part of the reason I ask for more info, as your statement is not correct, as the graph is incomplete. 0-10 is not on the Covid side, probably because there is no deaths or miniscule. I heard of one 9 month old that got classified wrong, and fixed, but no other deaths. 10-17 is probably lower once you factor in apples to apples with the flu and include 0-10 year olds. Same with ages through 40. All of this with a denominator no one believes to be anywhere close to the actual number of cases. If you double the denominator, as you said, it would appear that anyone 59 or under would be the same as the flu and many categories less.
I could have chosen a better chart. That one was just easy to find. They donít compare the same age categories exactly. But I think you can find those numbers in similar form elsewhere at CDC. And you are right there were deaths under 10 for COVID19. I think this chart is a little dated. We are still talking about cutting it by a factor of 50% though.
[Reply]
IowaHawkeyeChief 04:04 PM 04-10-2020
Originally Posted by banyon:
I could have chosen a better chart. That one was just easy to find. They donít compare the same age categories exactly. But I think you can find those numbers in similar form elsewhere at CDC. And you are right there were deaths under 10 for COVID19. I think this chart is a little dated. We are still talking about cutting it by a factor of 50% though.
If you display a chart, you should have a link, if not, you should find the information yourself. This is disingenuous to do so.

I don't think there were any deaths under age 10. There were none as of March 23, in any country. I can't find anywhere where there was a death in this age range, except one mis-characterized in a 9 month old that was corrected. Not saying there wasn't, I just can't seem to find one.
[Reply]
banyon 04:24 PM 04-10-2020
Originally Posted by IowaHawkeyeChief:
If you display a chart, you should have a link, if not, you should find the information yourself. This is disingenuous to do so.

I don't think there were any deaths under age 10. There were none as of March 23, in any country. I can't find anywhere where there was a death in this age range, except one mis-characterized in a 9 month old that was corrected. Not saying there wasn't, I just can't seem to find one.
The source was listed on the chart itself and I usually provide a link. But here It is:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bus...s-2020-3%3famp


As I commented earlier There is not much data to use on this topic so that may be why thereís not much to find.
[Reply]
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