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Nzoner's Game Room>***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***
JakeF 10:28 PM 02-26-2020
A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

[Reply]
Donger 01:42 PM 07-11-2020
Originally Posted by TLO:
So if a certain region were able to get the RO below 0, you'd expect cases to go away all together? Or start to slow down at least, correct?
Getting the R0 below 1 means the virus isn't spreading beyond the infected person and infections therefore dry up.

An example of R2, and why it's not a good thing:


[Reply]
TLO 01:45 PM 07-11-2020
Originally Posted by Donger:
Getting the R0 below 1 means the virus isn't spreading beyond the infected person and infections therefore dry up.

An example of R2, and why it's not a good thing:

I ask because areas in Missouri are currently around 0.59 R0. Yet we're still seeing cases each day. They haven't spiked dramatically, but they're still there.
[Reply]
Donger 01:47 PM 07-11-2020
Originally Posted by TLO:
I ask because areas in Missouri are currently around 0.59 R0. Yet we're still seeing cases each day. They haven't spiked dramatically, but they're still there.
Then the R0 isn't truly below 1 in those areas.
[Reply]
TLO 01:51 PM 07-11-2020
Originally Posted by Donger:
Then the R0 isn't truly below 1 in those areas.
Where I got confused was the governer said on Thursday "we're really not seeing community transmission in Northwest or Northeast Missouri". We did have the virus impact one of our nursing homes recently that has resulted in 60+ cases. So I guess I'm not fully understanding how RO can be an effective tool when you see an outbreak in one facility - that's obviously going to impact the RO, even though it doesn't seem like a true representation of what's happening in the community.
[Reply]
Halfcan 01:54 PM 07-11-2020
Originally Posted by tk13:
Antibody tests are not being counted as official cases, at least in the states I've seen. What you're talking about here are completely different than the nose swab or spit tests that you're seeing people in line for. The case counts you're seeing are from those, and are determining people who actively have it.

Antibody tests are to determine if possibly you've had it in the past and missed it because you didn't go get the nose swab, but there's some debate over how accurate they are.
:-)

Thank you! This is what I wanted to know- I guess I should have stated it better in the first place.
[Reply]
Donger 02:02 PM 07-11-2020
Originally Posted by TLO:
Where I got confused was the governer said on Thursday "we're really not seeing community transmission in Northwest or Northeast Missouri". We did have the virus impact one of our nursing homes recently that has resulted in 60+ cases. So I guess I'm not fully understanding how RO can be an effective tool when you see an outbreak in one facility - that's obviously going to impact the RO, even though it doesn't seem like a true representation of what's happening in the community.
Yes, an outbreak will affect the R0 figure in a negative way. The goal is to get it below 1 everywhere.
[Reply]
suzzer99 02:34 PM 07-11-2020
Originally Posted by Donger:
Yes, an outbreak will affect the R0 figure in a negative way. The goal is to get it below 1 everywhere.
I feel like the unstated goal at this point is to get to herd immunity with like 800k dead.

The bright side is that if none of the vaccines work we'll be in better shape than anyone else. (Assuming antibody or T-cell immunity lasts as least as long as cold/flu and maybe even if you do catch it a second time, you fight it off much easier.)
[Reply]
TLO 02:47 PM 07-11-2020
This was in Dong's CDC post from earlier, but this is interesting.

CDC now estimates that 40% of people infected with Covid-19 don't have any symptoms
From CNN's Gisela Crespo and Arman Azad

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has updated guidance meant for public health officials and mathematical modelers, which now estimates that 40% of people infected with Covid-19 show no symptoms.

Back in May, the CDC created five "Covid-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios," using data to provide a range of possible situations for Covid-19 in the US. The updated scenarios are based on new data the agency received through June 29. The agency also underscores these estimates are subject to change as more information becomes available, and exact numbers are uncertain.

Under the CDC's "current best estimate," 40% of people with Covid-19 are asymptomatic. This number is up from the 35% the agency estimated on May 20. The percent of asymptomatic cases remains uncertain, the CDC emphasized.

The CDC is now including an infection fatality ratio, which takes into account both symptomatic and asymptomatic cases (in the estimates published in May, the agency only included fatality ratio for symptomatic cases). Under the "best estimate" scenario, the infection fatality ratio is 0.65%, meaning that 0.65% of people infected with Covid-19 are thought to die.

More insight: About half of Covid-19 transmissions happen before people get sick; this is up from the 40% estimate in May.

Under the CDC's current "best estimate," the transmissibility of the virus from asymptomatic people -- in comparison to people with no symptoms -- is now 75%, down from 100%. However, the agency said this "remains highly uncertain as asymptomatic cases are difficult to identify and transmission is difficult to observe and quantify."

The agency warns this information is "intended to support public health preparedness and planning."
[Reply]
O.city 02:50 PM 07-11-2020
https://twitter.com/frankfurtzack/st...062002690?s=21

Interesting read don’t know the validity of it sograin of salt
[Reply]
lewdog 02:56 PM 07-11-2020
I wish I understood more than basic immunology.

I took an infectious disease course in college but that was 15 years ago......
[Reply]
O.city 02:58 PM 07-11-2020
Originally Posted by lewdog:
I wish I understood more than basic immunology.

I took an infectious disease course in college but that was 15 years ago......
You’ve got it all at your fingertips

Get goin
[Reply]
lewdog 03:20 PM 07-11-2020
Originally Posted by O.city:
You’ve got it all at your fingertips

Get goin
Yeah I’ve been reading.

Just seems with this virus you can’t draw any conclusions about immunity yet, correct.

Had a friend who was very sick in February just do the antibodies. He was positive for them. That’s pretty far out!
[Reply]
O.city 03:23 PM 07-11-2020
Originally Posted by lewdog:
Yeah I’ve been reading.

Just seems with this virus you can’t draw any conclusions about immunity yet, correct.

Had a friend who was very sick in February just do the antibodies. He was positive for them. That’s pretty far out!
Just go off the info we have. Based on everything else we know about virology there will be some immunity. How long we don’t know for sure.

But even if it wanes, as long as you don’t get big mutations, you’ll have some immunity. Likely just keep getting milder and milder cases as we go
[Reply]
TLO 03:37 PM 07-11-2020

CDC added 18,693 cases beyond our most conservative lag curve to date. Then stated we're close to end of pandemic. Appears to be a backlog clearing & one-time event?

Two things
1. At negative fatalities vs history
2. Reserve of 50,295 fatalities exists for legacy data laundering pic.twitter.com/2TAwqAppKw

— Ethical Skeptic ☀ (@EthicalSkeptic) July 11, 2020

[Reply]
TLO 03:41 PM 07-11-2020

What is occurring right now is, the reserve CDC date-cataloged deaths, which are not yet reported by the states, are being reported by the states over time (hence the Gompertz arrival). While this might be academically/bureaucratically proper, it is morally & ethically bankrupt. pic.twitter.com/QfZ90mm8rs

— Ethical Skeptic ☀ (@EthicalSkeptic) July 11, 2020

[Reply]
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