Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
Originally Posted by dirk digler:
FL governor is finally issuing a lock down order going into effect tomorrow at midnight. To little to late probably.
I'm not sure how much these lock down orders actually matter, honestly. It really comes down to people's own personal responsibility. You can have strongly worded messages from the government all day long. Shut down this, shut down that, etc. It doesn't matter if we still have people meeting up in large groups for long periods of time. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
I mean I'm not a world traveler, but do they?
I mean our most cosmoplitan regions would hang with France, would they not? Our most laissez faire w/ Spain. Our most hard-charging with Germany.
I think one of the greatest disservices we ever do to our populace is to underestimate just how crazy different our cultures are throughout this country.
And thus far, the way the EU has addressed it hasn't different too terribly much from country to country. At least not any more than our responses has differed from state to state.
I could be wrong - I just think we oftentimes overlook the level of autonomy and diversity that exists geographically throughout the United States.
Don't you know people in "the country" read:town of 12,000 will all start murdering because they are scared and that's the only way to solve the problem? [Reply]
Originally Posted by BIG_DADDY:
It's going to run it's course. Die out?
Yes, it will eventually. Just like all pandemics do. The question is what do we do to try to prevent as many new cases (and therefore new deaths) as possible?
You clearly did not agree with the stay at home effort. Do you wish to revise that now? [Reply]
Originally Posted by TLO:
I'm not sure how much these lock down orders actually matter, honestly. It really comes down to people's own personal responsibility. You can have strongly worded messages from the government all day long. Shut down this, shut down that, etc. It doesn't matter if we still have people meeting up in large groups for long periods of time.
Yeah, there are a lot of people upset at Parson for not issuing one - but to what purpose?
Are there any counties in Missouri that are showing significant spread that haven't issued a county-wide lockdown order? I'm not aware of any.
And none of these statewide lockdown orders prevent you from crossing county-lines anyway because they're unenforceable. Nor are they going to be enforced by the highway patrol.
They'll be an order issued by the state and ultimately enforced (or not enforced) by the local police. In other words - they'll be almost entirely redundant at this point. They aren't going to do anything more than a lock-down order from county would do.
I dunno if Florida's different - perhaps their counties have addressed it differently. But I do think it's odd how quickly local leadership is pointing uphill (and then how quickly state leadership does the same) when in the end the MOST effective responses are going to be done on a county by county level. They'll have the best feel for how necessary they are, how broad they should be and how capable they are of being enforced.
Lots of people looking to point fingers for actions not taken that would've had little practical impact anyway. [Reply]
Originally Posted by TLO:
I'm not sure how much these lock down orders actually matter, honestly. It really comes down to people's own personal responsibility. You can have strongly worded messages from the government all day long. Shut down this, shut down that, etc. It doesn't matter if we still have people meeting up in large groups for long periods of time.
I think they have had a great effect, sure there are some that don't care, but we have all seen the images of empty highways and places that are normally full.
I believe in the case of Florida they are going to lock down all the beaches and probably have police guarding the popular ones. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
Yeah, there are a lot of people upset at Parson for not issuing one - but to what purpose?
Are there any counties in Missouri that are showing significant spread that haven't issued a county-wide lockdown order? I'm not aware of any.
And none of these statewide lockdown orders prevent you from crossing county-lines anyway because they're unenforceable. Nor are they going to be enforced by the highway patrol.
They'll be an order issued by the state and ultimately enforced (or not enforced) by the local police. In other words - they'll be almost entirely redundant at this point. They aren't going to do anything more than a lock-down order from county would do.
I dunno if Florida's different - perhaps their counties have addressed it differently. But I do think it's odd how quickly local leadership is pointing uphill (and then how quickly state leadership does the same) when in the end the MOST effective responses are going to be done on a county by county level. They'll have the best feel for how necessary they are, how broad they should be and how capable they are of being enforced.
Lots of people looking to point fingers for actions not taken that would've had little practical impact anyway.
We don't know where there is significant spread, we aren't testing nearly enough. You can't know what you're looking for if you aren't looking. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Donger:
Yes, it will eventually. Just like all pandemics do. The question is what do we do to try to prevent as many new cases (and therefore new deaths) as possible?
You clearly did not agree with the stay at home effort. Do you wish to revise that now?
This is truth.
We really only have 5 defenses...
Shelter in Place to reduce the strain on hospitals/ventilators
More ventilators for those that do get sick to reduce mortality rate in that group
Anti-viral treatments to reduce the worst symptoms
Vaccine
Herd Immunity which happens after a lot of people get sick down the road
That’s pretty much the order in which this will play out. [Reply]
Originally Posted by dirk digler:
I think they have had a great effect, sure there are some that don't care, but we have all seen the images of empty highways and places that are normally full.
I believe in the case of Florida they are going to lock down all the beaches and probably have police guarding the popular ones.
To use Missouri as an example again.
About 6 days ago, shortly after some of these lockdowns had been issued in/around St. Louis, there was a survey of highway accidents over a 3-5 day stretch (I don't recall specifically)
Over the same period of time one year prior, the accident rate was roughly 100 times higher. With no state lockdown order in place. Because people simply weren't on the road.
The idea that there are hundreds of people still out there operating fairly normally and therefore it means that nothing we're doing has a measurable impact is just folly.
If a plan requires 100% compliance - scrap that plan. That's a bad plan. If Andy Reid calls a game that requires everyone on the field to execute perfectly 100% of the time in order to win - that's a bad coach.
The amount of buy in we've seen in this country is pretty spectacular. But just as people know full well that smoking, drinking and driving, not wearing a seatbelt and a whole slew of other things are dangerous to themselves and others but do it anyway - people are going to defy these orders. It's going to happen.
So again, if the fundamental premise of your plan is that 350 million people are suddenly going to be come wholly obedient stewards of the public good - Jesus, that is an AWFUL plan. Get a new one. [Reply]
Originally Posted by O.city:
We don't know where there is significant spread, we aren't testing nearly enough. You can't know what you're looking for if you aren't looking.
You can see where there is significant spread by looking at the hospitals and how full they are. [Reply]
Originally Posted by Donger:
Yes, it will eventually. Just like all pandemics do. The question is what do we do to try to prevent as many new cases (and therefore new deaths) as possible?
You clearly did not agree with the stay at home effort. Do you wish to revise that now?
I didn't realize we didn't have what we would need on the front end.
What is happening on the back end is absolutely brutal though. We do need to get up and running ASAP. As soon as we have the supplies and beds. I don't think people understand what can happen to this country on the back end. If we had the supplies, I would have never been for shelter in place, hence the response. I have said this before. [Reply]
