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Nzoner's Game Room>***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***
JakeF 10:28 PM 02-26-2020
A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

[Reply]
dirk digler 11:35 AM 04-28-2020
Originally Posted by Donger:
That's claiming that the present R0 in every state is sub-1?

Now that you mention it. It does look like that is the case though most are pretty close to 1.



Originally Posted by TLO:
Wow. That model is much more pessimistic. They also take a pretty large dump on the IHME model.

You will notice there is a big spike coming in August, probably from reopening the state.
[Reply]
IowaHawkeyeChief 11:37 AM 04-28-2020
Originally Posted by banyon:
If they had underlying conditions it's no big deal if they die. Don't you see?

They were dead anyway. So F the 85% plus of seniors with that. Let em die. I need to go see the new Marvel movie.
This is disingenuous bullshit... If you are 65 or younger and healthy your chance of dying from this is less than the flu... Protect those that need protected and move on.

How many died in 2017-2018 flu season that were young and healthy compared to Covi-19? How many from H1N1 compared to Covid 19?
[Reply]
banyon 11:38 AM 04-28-2020
Originally Posted by IowaHawkeyeChief:
This is disingenuous bullshit... If you are 65 or younger and healthy your chance of dying from this is less than the flu... Protect those that need protected and move on.
This will be the 10th time (probably) I have asked you to back up this claim.

I have seen no data to back it up. The sources you cited last time did not address flu deaths by age group.

More importantly though: there is no plan to "protect them" because the disease transmits asymptomatically and they have contact with the other age groups.
[Reply]
Donger 11:45 AM 04-28-2020
Originally Posted by IowaHawkeyeChief:
This is disingenuous bullshit... If you are 65 or younger and healthy your chance of dying from this is less than the flu... Protect those that need protected and move on.

How many died in 2017-2018 flu season that were young and healthy compared to Covi-19? How many from H1N1 compared to Covid 19?
Let's say that first part is accurate, which I doubt it is:

When was the last time 55,000 Americans died in a month during a seasonal flu?
[Reply]
Monticore 11:49 AM 04-28-2020
Originally Posted by KCChiefsFan88:
One third of Sweden’s COVID-19 deaths are taking place in nursing homes.

If they could more strategically social distance this high risk group (i.e. limit outside visitors, ensure that all staff have proper protective gear, etc.), their overall death rate would be much lower.
You think they didn't do that? there is a possibility they did and the virus still managed to find a way in because it is very contagious.
[Reply]
Marcellus 11:50 AM 04-28-2020
Originally Posted by Monticore:
You think they didn't do that? there is a possibility they did and the virus still managed to find a way in because it is very contagious.
If they did isolate the nursing homes and 1/3rd of their deaths are still from nursing homes, what does that imply?
[Reply]
IowaHawkeyeChief 11:51 AM 04-28-2020
Originally Posted by banyon:
This will be the 10th time (probably) I have asked you to back up this claim.

I have seen no data to back it up. The sources you cited last time did not address flu deaths by age group.

More importantly though: there is no plan to "protect them" because the disease transmits asymptomatically and they have contact with the other age groups.
I've backed this up over and over and over and over and over. Let me help you again... LOOK AT MY LAST POST...

90% of hospitalizations have an underlying condition...

Now look at deaths by age for Covid-19 that I've shared before... Compare them to H1N1 and the 2017-2018 flu season, which I've linked before.

Keep your head in the sand... It's a good look for you.
[Reply]
Monticore 11:52 AM 04-28-2020
Originally Posted by Marcellus:
If they did isolate the nursing homes and 1/3rd of their deaths are still from nursing homes, what does that imply?
That's it is very contagious and makes very hard to implement your plan of isolating only at risk people which is 80% of the population.

Workers/staff /cooks/c etc.. still have to go in thoses homes even with precautions it cans till still spread.
[Reply]
BleedingRed 11:52 AM 04-28-2020
Originally Posted by IowaHawkeyeChief:
I've backed this up over and over and over and over and over. Let me help you again... LOOK AT MY LAST POST...

90% of hospitalizations have an underlying condition...

Now look at deaths by age for Covid-19 that I've shared before... Compare them to H1N1 and the 2017-2018 flu season, which I've linked before.

Keep your head in the sand... It's a good look for you.
he has a agenda as Donger would put it
[Reply]
banyon 11:57 AM 04-28-2020
Originally Posted by IowaHawkeyeChief:
I've backed this up over and over and over and over and over. Let me help you again... LOOK AT MY LAST POST...

90% of hospitalizations have an underlying condition...

Now look at deaths by age for Covid-19 that I've shared before... Compare them to H1N1 and the 2017-2018 flu season, which I've linked before.

Keep your head in the sand... It's a good look for you.
Yes you linked the 2017-18 flu and h1n1, but they did not have deaths broken down by AGE. That's probably because the figures were only estimates for those illnesses.

You are making a claim about comparing the risk of mortality for a certain age bracket. THAT is what is not backed up.
[Reply]
Marcellus 11:59 AM 04-28-2020
Originally Posted by Monticore:
That's it is very contagious and makes very hard to implement your plan of isolating only at risk people which is 80% of the population.

Workers/staff /cooks/c etc.. still have to go in thoses homes even with precautions it cans till still spread.
I think we know that's not nearly the case based off the data we have or else hospitalizations would be much higher and we wouldn't have 20X the number of known infections walking around asymptomatic.

I think people are taking some pretty extreme liberties with what underlying conditions increase mortality with covid, it seems they are probably fairly specific and coupled with age. There is likely a combination of conditions that make a really bad scenario.
[Reply]
IowaHawkeyeChief 12:00 PM 04-28-2020
Originally Posted by Donger:
Let's say that first part is accurate, which I doubt it is:

When was the last time 55,000 Americans died in a month during a seasonal flu?
When's the last time 26,000 Americans died in a month outside of NYC/NJ?Probably 2017-2018 flu season.

When's the last time more people under the age of 65 and healthy died of a contagion in a month during flu season? Most likely 2009, 2015-16, and 2017-2018

Here's a good resource...

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season...-2017-2018.htm
[Reply]
TLO 12:00 PM 04-28-2020
1 step forward 2 steps back
[Reply]
Donger 12:00 PM 04-28-2020
Originally Posted by Marcellus:
I think we know that's not nearly the case based off the data we have or else hospitalizations would be much higher and we wouldn't have 20X the number of known infections walking around asymptomatic.

I think people are taking some pretty extreme liberties with what underlying conditions increased mortality with covid. it seems there are probably fairly specific and coupled with age. There is likely a combination of conditions that make a really bad scenario.
And perhaps there would have been if we had not taken the mitigation efforts we did.
[Reply]
Donger 12:02 PM 04-28-2020
Originally Posted by IowaHawkeyeChief:
When's the last time 26,000 Americans died in a month outside of NYC/NJ?Probably 2017-2018 flu season.

When's the last time more people under the age of 65 and healthy died of a contagion in a month during flu season? Most likely 2009, 2015-16, and 2017-2018

Here's a good resource...

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season...-2017-2018.htm
I didn't ask about 26,000.
[Reply]
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