Originally Posted by jd1020:
I think he's referring to this deal taking them out of Harper/Machado which would be monumentally stupid.
Ya this trade is a good deal. But look at it like this...
This is your core:
Ozuna - 1 year
Goldschmidt - 1 year
Molina - retiring in 2 years
Carpenter - going back to 3rd base
You potentially passed up on a stud stepping into his prime for what appears to be a 1 year run, that still doesn't guarantee a playoff spot, in order to avoid spending money.
They'll give big money to Ozuna or Goldschmidt if they'll take it.
Likely they'll get in another Heyward situation and still suck. [Reply]
We had a very small chance of getting Harper. But that being said, why does getting goldy ensure that we have no chance at Harper? What does the goldy trade have to do with Harper? [Reply]
Originally Posted by O.city:
They'll give big money to Ozuna or Goldschmidt if they'll take it.
Likely they'll get in another Heyward situation and still suck.
I don't see how you could possibly give big money to Ozuna unless he has another 2017. He was throwing like a girl last year and he returned to being a barely league average hitter.
And giving Goldschmidt an extension would be terribly ironic because of what Goold has already mentioned. The Cardinals were dumping cold water on any deal with Harper because of the risk it would involve at the back end of the deal so you trade for a guy thats already at the back end of the deal. [Reply]
Originally Posted by jd1020:
I don't see how you could possibly give big money to Ozuna unless he has another 2016. He was throwing like a girl last year and he returned to being a barely league average hitter.
And giving Goldschmidt an extension would be terribly ironic because of what Goold has already mentioned.
Again, they'll do it to sell it to the masses.
Ozuna comes off shoulder surgery and has a good year, he'll get paid. [Reply]
Originally Posted by BigRedChief:
okay, enlighten us. It seems to me that we gave up our trash with little upside and got at least 1 year of a good MLB player.
It’s what we had discussed earlier. We need to trade our 4 quarters for a dollar.
I've spoken to this exact scenario already.
Unless you're willing to wildly expand payroll and go get Harper anyway (DeWitt isn't), then you have to view ALL of this through a lens of surplus value. And even if we don't, there are several teams out there that WILL. So guys like Weaver and Kelly have a fair amount of value on the open market.
Again - this is about twice what we gave up for Ozuna and we get the player for half as long. And when the deal for Ozuna was made, he was every bit the commodity that Goldschmidt is now; a 2nd year of control is massive in trade discussions.
That package for a rental player is flash over substance; it's what lazy GM's do when they're out of ideas. And it's an acknowledgement that DeWitt's shooting for 90 wins, a wild-card game and some good luck. He's taking the floor over the ceiling and in so doing he's giving up assets that can contribute to THIS organization (who's taking the innings when Mikolas and Wacha get paid in 2020? Or do you really want to extend them?) or have value elsewhere.
If they sign Harper and Goldschmidt is a part of making that happen - I'll take it all back. But they won't. This is it. They're going to go get Tony Sipp or some other fungible but overpriced veteran reliever, they're going to push for 90 wins and hope the Brewers backslide.
They'll be the 5th best team in the NL again but they'll be older and almost certainly more expensive, especially in the long-term. There's no long-term vision here; just a willingness to keep going for the easy headline in the hopes that the turnstile algorithm keeps churning out profits. [Reply]
Originally Posted by jd1020:
JD Martinez got 5/110 at 30 to DH.
What's Goldschmidt get at 31 to play 1B?
5/125 is the likely floor due to his durability. For ages 32-36.
Folks, that's our BEST case scenario - that we get him extended and have the privilege of paying a 1b who struck out 170+ times last year (a spike in K rate is never a good sign for an aging player) through his decline years.
Awesome.
Enjoy your offseason headlines and season ticket packages, Moe. This won't change the outcome in September one whit. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
I've spoken to this exact scenario already.
Unless you're willing to wildly expand payroll and go get Harper anyway (DeWitt isn't), then you have to view ALL of this through a lens of surplus value. And even if we don't, there are several teams out there that WILL. So guys like Weaver and Kelly have a fair amount of value on the open market.
Again - this is about twice what we gave up for Ozuna and we get the player for half as long. And when the deal for Ozuna was made, he was every bit the commodity that Goldschmidt is now; a 2nd year of control is massive in trade discussions.
That package for a rental player is flash over substance; it's what lazy GM's do when they're out of ideas. And it's an acknowledgement that DeWitt's shooting for 90 wins, a wild-card game and some good luck. He's taking the floor over the ceiling and in so doing he's giving up assets that can contribute to THIS organization (who's taking the innings when Mikolas and Wacha get paid in 2020? Or do you really want to extend them?) or have value elsewhere.
If they sign Harper and Goldschmidt is a part of making that happen - I'll take it all back. But they won't. This is it. They're going to go get Tony Sipp or some other fungible but overpriced veteran reliever, they're going to push for 90 wins and hope the Brewers backslide.
They'll be the 5th best team in the NL again but they'll be older and almost certainly more expensive, especially in the long-term. There's no long-term vision here; just a willingness to keep going for the easy headline in the hopes that the turnstile algorithm keeps churning out profits.
you hated Weaver and Kelly, fo i really need to go get the quotes of you trashing them? but now they are worth more than a year of Goldy? [Reply]
Originally Posted by BigRedChief:
who gives you a new crisp dollar with no warts for your trash?
A team that needs a long-term starting catcher and values cost-controlled pitching.
And this is like the Kaminsky deal as well. When we traded Kaminsky for Moss, suddenly everyone was like "Well Kaminsky sucks and he's a likely reliever anyway..." okay - then why the fuck did we take him in the 1st round?
I think Weaver progressed nicely until a sophomore slump last year where he was really in his own head. His stuff was still good but he just lost his fastball command. Fix that and you're right back to the kid you took in the 1st round. Hell, you're better than that because his velocity had bounced back to where it was as a Sophomore at FSU when he was seen as a potential top 5 guy.
The Cardinals drafted a guy in the 1st, he did EVERYTHING they could've wanted him to do in the minors, looked very good in his first major league experience and the moment he hit a stumble, they dumped him at the nadir of his value.
Because that's all Moe EVER does. He buys high and sells low. He never has the balls to trade a guy when he's at peak value and always waits until there's no projection left or the guy's scuffling. And he always waits until after a breakout to pursue someone. The guy actually said, after trading for Ozuna, that he knew Ozuna would be a stud 3 years prior to that when he saw him in camp. THE MARLINS TRIED TO DUMP THE GUY! 2 years before his breakout, the Marlins were shopping him all over God's creation because he was pissed over having his service time manipulated. Where was Moe then? If he knew the guy was going to be such a stud before then, why didn't he pounce?
Because there aren't ticket sales in it. Moe's a fucking bag man; an accountant with a title. He sees ways to get people to buy tickets and that's what he concerns himself with.
He's a lousy baseball man. He has no long-term plan apart from "don't ever suck" and his has absolutely no creativity. This team doesn't need a !@#$ing righthanded 1b. They need a 3b that hits lefthanded. They needed Johan Camargo or some other semi-creative solution that would yeild someone who hasn't already had his best years somewhere else.
Moe's simply not up to that task. He's every bad fantasy baseball owner you've ever had - the guy who was asking if Jeter's been taken by the 4th round in 2016.
Originally Posted by BigRedChief:
you hated Weaver and Kelly, fo i really need to go get the quotes of you trashing them? but now they are worth more than a year of Goldy?
On the market? Yes. If you're not hell-bent on a headline trade, they absolutely are.
Weaver established himself in 2017 after recovering his velocity and Kelly rehabbed his prospect value when he got sent back to Memphis. I preferred Flaherty because of his frame and Knizner because of his swing, but you don't ever discount the relative value of players just because you like someone else better.
11 years of Weaver and Kelly needs to get you a lot more than a single 5 win season from a 1b, especially when you already have a damn 1b and all you're doing with this move is shoving that 1b over to 3b so you can force out a guy who was a 3 win 3b in his own right.
This team is maybe 2 games better. They're a 90 win ballclub at this point and what they've done is fire 2 bullets that could've at least been part of a solution that doesn't involve either a 1-year rental or extending an aging 1b.
Again - IF I thought this was a part of a genuine plan; a push to get Harper - I'd be less irritated. But I've spent a wildly outsized part of my adult life observing this organization. They're done. They got their season ticket packages sold with this move - they'll get a lefty reliever and call it a day. Shit they might not even do that now that they reached a deal with Shreve. [Reply]
3 evaluators have generally said #Diamondbacks did not get 1 stud prospect back, but rather potential upside/control. But said considering 1b/31/1 yr to fr agcy the return was fine. 1 of evaluators was from NL Central said this: "But now I have to see Goldschmidt 19 times. Ow."
I dont believe that the guys they traded had as much value as you believe. I don't know how you can rebuild value in Kelly's case. He was already moved down the totem pole internally and in 3 trips to the majors has shown absolutely no staying power even as a backup. [Reply]
3 evaluators have generally said #Diamondbacks did not get 1 stud prospect back, but rather potential upside/control. But said considering 1b/31/1 yr to fr agcy the return was fine. 1 of evaluators was from NL Central said this: "But now I have to see Goldschmidt 19 times. Ow."
I dont believe that the guys they traded had as much value as you believe. I don't know how you can rebuild value in Kelly's case. He was already moved down the totem pole internally and in 3 trips to the majors has shown absolutely no staying power even as a backup.
Are you worried about the Cardinals? Even a little bit?
With this move, do you see a team that's a viable threat to challenge the Cubs for the Central over the next 3 years?
This isn't about the players; it's about laying their cards down and making their priorities transparent. The Cardinals are content with good enough and unless this maneuver portends another significant move, it provides clear confirmation of same. [Reply]
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
Are you worried about the Cardinals? Even a little bit?
With this move, do you see a team that's a viable threat to challenge the Cubs for the Central over the next 3 years?
This isn't about the players; it's about laying their cards down and making their priorities transparent. The Cardinals are content with good enough and unless this maneuver portends another significant move, it provides clear confirmation of same.
I don't worry about the Cardinals because for the last 2 years I've looked at the roster and seen absolutely nothing to replace the current core thats walking off into the sunset in the near future.
God help you if Martinez is a bullpen arm going forward and Reyes throws out his arm again.
But at the same time I don't feel the Cardinals gave up a damn thing for a guy who is a shoe-in for top 15 wRC+. Even if it is only for one year. [Reply]
