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Nzoner's Game Room>2018 STL Cardinals Thread
BigRedChief 05:51 PM 01-02-2018
Opening day lineup

Fowler RF
Pham CF
Carpenter 3B
Ozuna LF
Martinez 1B
Molina C
Dejong SS
Wong 2B
Pitcher

Edit:
Matheny fired 07/14/2018




Opening Day Roster
Spoiler!

[Reply]
BigRedChief 11:48 AM 08-08-2018
Originally Posted by VAChief:
Yes, like this move...slugging over .660 let's get another barometer test heading into the off season.
Sounds good to me.
———————————
The Cardinals drafted Gorman, a lefthanded-hitting third baseman, with the No. 19 pick in June's MLB Draft. The 18-year-old from Phoenix slugged 11 home runs in 37 games with Johnson City.

"I've got a pretty natural upward angle in my swing, so we haven't really worried about launch angle or anything," Gorman said the evening of the draft.

MLB.com ranks Gorman the No. 100 prospect in baseball, saying he may have the most raw power of anyone from this year's draft class. He averaged one strikeout a game with Johnson City but had a .440 on base percentage and was slugging .662.

"We were thrilled the way the board worked out," scouting director Randy Flores said on draft day. "You can't believe (a player), lefthanded like that, as young as he is ... was available to us."
[Reply]
BigRedChief 11:51 AM 08-08-2018
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
I like Manny a lot. There's no way he's the best player in baseball who isn't Trout. Betts is better and that's not even arguable. Jose Ramirez at this point has to be in that conversation. Lindor's all-around ability and unexpected power puts him in that conversation and I love Bregman's future.

Machado being a shitty shortstop changes that entire conversation as well. I mean if he's just a 3b (and really, he's probably just a 3b) why is he any better than Arenado? If he's a 3b, Arenado is a better ballplayer. Hell, if he's a 3b is Machado obviously better than Eugenio Suarez? Now granted, that's an extreme example to make a point - even I don't believe he's not better than Suarez, but it's a lot closer than you think.

Now comes the dirty little secret - Machado MAY have been a product of Camden Yards to boot. He's always had severe home/rd splits and he's been a punch and judy hitter since he got to LA. Manny's offensive game is predicated on power and if leaving Camden makes him a 25 HR guy as opposed to a 35 HR guy and his glove keeps him at 3b - he ISN'T better than Suarez at that point.

Now I'll say this - the season I thought was going to be his leap forward into perennial MVP status was 2016 and he didn't demonstrate a massive power split that season. So there's a talent level he has that he's occasionally demonstrated an ability to tap on the road as well. But for the major ity of his career he's shown some pretty significant and alarming power splits that make sense given Camden's status as a frequent launching pad.

Maybe if he just gets to a neutral stadium things will sort themselves out but I think he knows better. I think he'll go to Philly where he can take aim at a plus HR park and get those numbers back up for a HoF surge. Dodgers Stadium is going to get in his head if it hasn't already.
Arenado’s stats away from Coors field look like shit to me.
[Reply]
BigRedChief 11:55 AM 08-08-2018
Originally Posted by Prison Bitch:
The cards are one of the few teams that can justify being in the FA market. They don't have tons of LT dead weight and they have plenty of $...and they're competitive. The 2-tier system we have now makes it pointless for either the shitty (KC, White Sux) or good (Indians) to ever sign anyone.


Dodgers-RedSox-Spanks-Giants-Texas-Ana-Mets literally have ZERO incentive to sign any of these guys. They're the big spenders aren't they? They're either runaway winners or rebuilding.


ASStros are guaranteed to get one. Harper or Machado. Verlander 28M comes off the books in 2020, Springer a FA in 2020, Reddick gone 2019. It's a virtual certainty.
we are in our 2nd year of our own $2 Billion cable TV contract. The Cards have money to spend.
[Reply]
Prison Bitch 12:48 PM 08-08-2018
That's why Philly is my 2.

ASS can just bounce Bregman to The OF Gordo-style. Didn't know Machado has bad metrics this year, surely that's an anomaly.

Atlanta is a big threat too. Best system in the game if Acuna was still Party of it. Most of the $$$$$ will be spent by the NL clubs next 2-3 years which is a downside for STL. Wash will replace Harper dough with someone.
[Reply]
DJ's left nut 12:57 PM 08-08-2018
Originally Posted by BigRedChief:
Arenado’s stats away from Coors field look like shit to me.
He's had about an .860 OPS on the road away from Coors. And yeah, that's certainly not as good as his Coors numbers, but those are far from shit. Moreover, unlike Camden, I think Coors hitters have a Coors hangover on the road.

Pitches behave differently in Coors than they do elsewhere. There's less snap, less movement and opponents have worse command because they're not used to how the ball works there. Everything about hitting in Coors is like a video game set to easy level. Then when they get on the road, everything goes back to normal and hitters have to make a pretty significant adjustment to the pitches simply being nastier.

So I think Coors hitters have worse road numbers than they'd have if they simply played at any other ballpark in baseball as their home park. Camden doesn't give that effect. Camden doesn't effect the way pitches behave - only they way they travel off the bat and really only whether or not they're homeruns vs. loud outs.

So if Arenado's home stats are, say, 10% better than they would be were he a Cardinal, his road stats are 5% worse than they'd be, IMO. He still comes out ahead to be sure, but when speaking directly to the splits, there's a penalty on his road numbers.

Machado, OTOH, got a boost in his HR numbers from hitting in Camden but I don't think he gets a penalty when he's on the road because pitches are coming in the same way as they did in Baltimore - they're just not going out as easily. So if he gets a 5% home boost that suddenly evaporates, unlike a Coors hitter I don't think he'll get to make any of that up through more normalized road hitting.
[Reply]
DJ's left nut 12:59 PM 08-08-2018
Originally Posted by BigRedChief:
we are in our 2nd year of our own $2 Billion cable TV contract. The Cards have money to spend.
Ours is $1 billion vs. the Phillies $2.5 billion. That's a MASSIVE difference.

Yeah, the Cardinals have money to spend and they can absolutely afford Machado or Harper. But the Phillies can afford both of them and since they didn't spend the last 18 months spinning their wheels but rather appear to be actively building toward something (whether real or imagined, that's the perception), they have a better chance of attracting FAs, IMO.
[Reply]
DJ's left nut 01:06 PM 08-08-2018
Originally Posted by Prison Bitch:
That's why Philly is my 2.

ASS can just bounce Bregman to The OF Gordo-style. Didn't know Machado has bad metrics this year, surely that's an anomaly.

Atlanta is a big threat too. Best system in the game if Acuna was still Party of it. Most of the $$$$$ will be spent by the NL clubs next 2-3 years which is a downside for STL. Wash will replace Harper dough with someone.
The metrics might be an anomaly but the eye test with him supports them. He just looks like he's gotten too thick; his steps aren't very fast and his range isn't terribly good. To my eyes his hands are degrading as well but I think that's a result of trying to 'think through' plays and getting himself caught in between.

I'm not saying he can't improve - there's a good chance he can get himself to a league average starting SS defensively should he just get a little more comfortable and continue to trust that cannon of an arm he has. But I wouldn't just assume he'll stick at SS at this point - he might just not be very good over there as he's matured.

And yeah, the Nats free up Harpers money but the Cards free up $20 million from Wainwright as well and they're getting NOTHING from it. That's found funds right there. The Cardinals have no real excuse for getting outmuscled financially by the Nationals - they can hang in that crowd given their relatively reasonable payroll obligations going forward and new cable dollars.

But they can't hang with everyone and have nothing else in particular to draw players there at the moment. The damage Matheny did to that team's standing is just immense. They're not going to be able to get a guy like Harper signed as a FA - probably can't even get a visit. If they ever hope to get that kind of player again it will need to be another deal like the Ozuna trade (younger player with a couple years to FA) and a hope that the player in question simply isn't the damaged goods Moe acquired from the Marlins. He enjoys his year or two in STL and the Cardinals have some additional advantages in FA bidding.
[Reply]
DJ's left nut 01:23 PM 08-08-2018
BA on Gorman:

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stor...ign-for-cards/

I know that skipping State College to go full-season ball was impressive for a high school prospect, but I didn't realize exactly how rare it was.

Gorman's only the 6th high schooler to make it to A ball in his draft season in the last 10 years. JP Crawford, Addison Russell, Royce Lewis, Courtney Hawkins and some guy named Mike Trout.

Now obviously the range of outcomes there is essentially the entire spectrum of possible outcomes when you have the best player in major league baseball (one of the best in history) as well as someone who is unlikely to ever see big league ball. Still, it's a good sign when he's making that kind of progress that quickly, provided that you trust your player development staff. To this point I actually do think our player development folks in the low minors are pretty savvy.
[Reply]
BigRedChief 01:32 PM 08-08-2018
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut:
Ours is $1 billion vs. the Phillies $2.5 billion. That's a MASSIVE difference.

Yeah, the Cardinals have money to spend and they can absolutely afford Machado or Harper. But the Phillies can afford both of them and since they didn't spend the last 18 months spinning their wheels but rather appear to be actively building toward something (whether real or imagined, that's the perception), they have a better chance of attracting FAs, IMO.
they have at least $100 million more to spend every year than they did in say 2015.

Of course we are not outbidding the MLB big city budgets. But, not all the great players can play and share the spotlight on those 5-6 teams. MLB is not the NBA.
We are in the 2nd tier of teams when it comes to the salary cap. We are usually in the top 10. That’s good enough to compete.
[Reply]
DJ's left nut 01:41 PM 08-08-2018
Originally Posted by BigRedChief:
they have at least $100 million more to spend every year than they did in say 2015.

Of course we are not outbidding the MLB big city budgets. But, not all the great players can play and share the spotlight on those 5-6 teams. MLB is not the NBA.
We are in the 2nd tier of teams when it comes to the salary cap. We are usually in the top 10. That’s good enough to compete.
The plaque for the alternates is in the lady's room.

The Cardinals have 'competed' for several FAs over the last 10 years and it's gotten them nowhere because their options are to either overpay as the high bidder or lose. They simply don't have the cache they once had that can put them over the top in these FA pursuits.

They need to focus on getting that back as well as the 'trade/sign' sort of longer term plays. I'm sure they'll make 'competitive' offers for Machado and maybe even Harper, but they won't get either guy because they don't have the kicker to put it over the top.

They just aren't a destination franchise right now. It's a damn shame because there really isn't anything that makes the Phillies more desireable than STL apart from perception. They don't have a slew of young hitters banging the door down. We have young pitching talent that compares favorably to theirs as well. We should be neck and neck with them in terms of desirability but I just don't think we are.

And when they can also outspend us, I don't see how we win a showdown with them.
[Reply]
Prison Bitch 02:03 PM 08-08-2018
Machado will pick his team and his position no matter who's already there. He will move any SS or 3B off, if he wants. Even Carlos Corrrea. "sorry dude you're going to 3B so Machado can play SS". Por que???? "That's just Manny being Manny". (Insert laugh track)


Reminds me of when Tarkanian signed Larry Johnson. Someone asked where he was going to play, being a tweener. Tark: "I suppose wherever he wants"


STL is a superior destination to Philly, not even close. The $$$ is an issue obv. Outside of maybe Anaheim or SD, easiest fan base in MLB
[Reply]
DJ's left nut 02:30 PM 08-08-2018
Originally Posted by Prison Bitch:
Machado will pick his team and his position no matter who's already there. He will move any SS or 3B off, if he wants. Even Carlos Corrrea. "sorry dude you're going to 3B so Machado can play SS". Por que???? "That's just Manny being Manny". (Insert laugh track)


Reminds me of when Tarkanian signed Larry Johnson. Someone asked where he was going to play, being a tweener. Tark: "I suppose wherever he wants"


STL is a superior destination to Philly, not even close. The $$$ is an issue obv. Outside of maybe Anaheim or SD, easiest fan base in MLB
Just don't see it - not with the Astros. That's not a team that NEEDS to bend to the whims of a FA. And the Astros have openly acknowledged that they do have a budget and it's going to be tough to keep their young core together. I expect they let Springer walk and replace him with Tucker, but where they're really going to struggle is likely starting pitching.

Morton and Keuchel are both FAs this offseason, Verlander and Cole next. Sure, a lot of money comes off the books but in Verlander and Cole, so will the heart of their pitching staff. Moreover, their depth in will be sorely taxed if/when Morton and Keuchel walk, especially since McCullers just cannot stay healthy.

They have a high-end hitting prospect at 1b and a lot of money they need to allocate to keeping their pitching staff intact. I just cannot see them spending a premium on Machado just to take a guy like Correa and stick him at 3b while putting Bregman in the OF. That move does a ton to undercut both guys overall value to the squad.

The marginal benefit of that kind of financial outlay won't match spending that same money on keeping their starting staff together or finding their eventual replacements. Forrest Whitley can only do so much...

Regarding Phillies vs. Cardinals - hey, I'm inclined to agree but that sure isn't the narrative you're seeing in baseball right now. To hear it told, the Cardinals are lower than the Rays at the moment. I remain hopeful that a strong second half under Shildt and some happier players going into the offseason polishes the apple a bit but it's going to take time to become someplace players want to go again. I just think its impossible to overstate the damage Matheny has done to this teams standing.
[Reply]
Miles 02:57 PM 08-08-2018
So the Astros would move cost controlled and potentially better players out of SS or 3rd to pay Machado a shitload?
[Reply]
Prison Bitch 03:08 PM 08-08-2018
Originally Posted by Miles:
So the Astros would move cost controlled and potentially better players out of SS or 3rd to pay Machado a shitload?
Why not?
[Reply]
DJ's left nut 03:42 PM 08-08-2018
Originally Posted by Prison Bitch:
Why not?
Because they have a budget and it ain't slow pitch softball.

Somebody needs to pitch it. The Cubs sure looked poise to dominate baseball for a 5-year run and while they still have a chance to capitalize on some of that - even one more title would certainly change things for them - their pitching is going to make that a more uphill climb than was expected.

Cubs fans, deep in the darkest recesses of their souls where they never let Cardinals fans, will acknowledge that the present incarnation of that squad starting in/around the 2014 season and probably running through 2021 or so really should win more than a single championship. Now there's still a pretty decent chance that they do - but if they don't their pitching will be the culprit.

The Astros are going to have a 5-6 year window of their own where if they aren't smart enough to make sure that pitching staff remains sound, they're going to find themselves wishing they had. The Cubs can make the argument that Scherzer was a FA a year too soon and when they went into the market and came back with Heyward, the best SP alternative was Greinke and he's not been fantastic in his own right. The Astros won't have a 'bad timing' excuse - these are problems THEY would make for themselves; spending money to bring guys in while neglecting to maintain their own house.

I just don't think they can do that.
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