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Nzoner's Game Room>***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***
JakeF 10:28 PM 02-26-2020
A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

[Reply]
suzzer99 06:24 PM 07-22-2020
Originally Posted by lewdog:
I’ll admit it, same thing here. It’s very noticeable. Still having large gatherings all the time. Hispanic Coworker here had her family throw a massive family gathering in May. 50 people, all family, and 19 of them got COVID from it and a few of the grandparents died.

Most here wear masks in public I find, but they have a hard time social distancing from their family they don’t live with. Relates to socioeconomic status and education IMO.
Similar story in LA. I'm in a hiking group that's mostly Hispanic. The people I know from the group seem pretty responsible and mask up around other people. They definitely take the virus seriously.

But they're just so family-oriented. Most of them couldn't imagine life w/o being able to see your extended family for a month, much less a year. They'd rather just take their chances.
[Reply]
loochy 06:29 PM 07-22-2020
Originally Posted by SAUTO:
Anyone thinking those death numbers aren't going to continue to grow are fooling themselves...
Of course they are. It's not like it's Jesus catching corona.
[Reply]
KCrockaholic 06:31 PM 07-22-2020
So I decided to do something with some numbers which we know are overinflated and not 100% accurate as is. But i used what was given to me based on worldometers USA coronavirus numbers.

I wanted to see what the US death rate would be if we removed the anomalies of NY and NJ which are far and away higher than the rest of the country.

So after removing those states you divide 3,452,310 (cases) by 97,197 (reported deaths) and this gives you a 2.8% death rate. But I also wanted to see the death rate of people under 65 years old, considering we know that roughly 80% of the deaths are the elderly over 65+. You take 20% of 2.8% and that gives you a death rate of 0.56% for anyone under 65. And of course as you lower the age your percentage would go down further. Just some interesting numbers I found earlier.
[Reply]
SAUTO 06:32 PM 07-22-2020
Originally Posted by loochy:
Of course they are. It's not like it's Jesus catching corona.
How old is jesus?
[Reply]
SAUTO 06:33 PM 07-22-2020
Originally Posted by KCrockaholic:
So I decided to do something with some numbers which we know are overinflated and not 100% accurate as is. But i used what was given to me based on worldometers USA coronavirus numbers.

I wanted to see what the US death rate would be if we removed the anomalies of NY and NJ which are far and away higher than the rest of the country.

So after removing those states you divide 3,452,310 (cases) by 97,197 (reported deaths) and this gives you a 2.8% death rate. But I also wanted to see the death rate of people under 65 years old, considering we know that roughly 80% of the deaths are the elderly over 65+. You take 20% of 2.8% and that gives you a death rate of 0.56% for anyone under 65. And of course as you lower the age your percentage would go down further. Just some interesting numbers I found earlier.
Far and away higher than the rest of the country at this point...
[Reply]
KCrockaholic 06:44 PM 07-22-2020
Originally Posted by SAUTO:
Far and away higher than the rest of the country at this point...
Even if we take the numbers from today or yesterday the death % is 1.8% which in my under 65 study equates to 0.36% so if anything although yes the case numbers are up (which includes a mixture of untested probably cases) the death rate is down quite a bit from original thoughts back in March or April.
This would actually make pneumonia much deadlier on death scale, pneumonia just isn't as spreadable apparently considering about 50k die each year from it in the US.
[Reply]
DaneMcCloud 06:50 PM 07-22-2020
Originally Posted by KCrockaholic:
So I decided to do something with some numbers which we know are overinflated and not 100% accurate as is.
:-)

Based on which "news" source?
[Reply]
KCrockaholic 06:53 PM 07-22-2020
Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud:
:-)

Based on which "news" source?
The sources across the board that have admitted multiple false tests and considering the definition of both cases and deaths was changed mid-pandemic we can only take the numbers in put in front of us with a grain of salt considering there's been a lot of misinformation.
[Reply]
DaFace 06:54 PM 07-22-2020
Originally Posted by KCrockaholic:
Even if we take the numbers from today or yesterday the death % is 1.8% which in my under 65 study equates to 0.36% so if anything although yes the case numbers are up (which includes a mixture of untested probably cases) the death rate is down quite a bit from original thoughts back in March or April.
This would actually make pneumonia much deadlier on death scale, pneumonia just isn't as spreadable apparently considering about 50k die each year from it in the US.
There's a reason why the calculations are much more complicated than this.
[Reply]
O.city 07:03 PM 07-22-2020
Arizona looking better and Texas and Florida appear to be plateauing but now other states are starting to potentially take off

Just not good
[Reply]
Bob Dole 07:03 PM 07-22-2020
Originally Posted by SAUTO:
Anyone thinking those death numbers aren't going to continue to grow are fooling themselves...

We're probably going to be around 2k a day by next week by the looks of things.
I fully expected total deaths to shrink as we moved through time.
[Reply]
TLO 07:06 PM 07-22-2020
Originally Posted by O.city:
Arizona looking better and Texas and Florida appear to be plateauing but now other states are starting to potentially take off

Just not good
Who's taking off?
[Reply]
DaneMcCloud 07:07 PM 07-22-2020
Originally Posted by KCrockaholic:
The sources across the board that have admitted multiple false tests and considering the definition of both cases and deaths was changed mid-pandemic we can only take the numbers in put in front of us with a grain of salt considering there's been a lot of misinformation.
There are also many scientists that believe that the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths are far, far below the number reported to date.
[Reply]
DaneMcCloud 07:09 PM 07-22-2020
Originally Posted by O.city:
Arizona looking better and Texas and Florida appear to be plateauing but now other states are starting to potentially take off

Just not good
Here in California, the number of new cases has consistently been above 10,000 per day for quite a while.

I can't even imagine how bad it would be in September had the governor not ordered online-schooling for the foreseeable future.
[Reply]
jdubya 07:30 PM 07-22-2020
Originally Posted by KCrockaholic:
So I decided to do something with some numbers which we know are overinflated and not 100% accurate as is. But i used what was given to me based on worldometers USA coronavirus numbers.

I wanted to see what the US death rate would be if we removed the anomalies of NY and NJ which are far and away higher than the rest of the country.

So after removing those states you divide 3,452,310 (cases) by 97,197 (reported deaths) and this gives you a 2.8% death rate. But I also wanted to see the death rate of people under 65 years old, considering we know that roughly 80% of the deaths are the elderly over 65+. You take 20% of 2.8% and that gives you a death rate of 0.56% for anyone under 65. And of course as you lower the age your percentage would go down further. Just some interesting numbers I found earlier.
What happens to the numbers if you eliminate Covid deaths from pts from nursing homes/convalescent hospitals?
[Reply]
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