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The Lounge>***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***
JakeF 10:28 PM 02-26-2020
A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

[Reply]
JohnnyHammersticks 02:30 PM 02-28-2020
"Man with coronavirus seeking woman with Lyme disease"
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Carlota69 03:18 PM 02-28-2020
A Northern California woman who tested positive for COVID-19 is in serious condition and has been intubated.

Rep. John Garamendi (D-Calif.), who represents the district where the woman is from, told CNN the patient is potentially unable to talk, hampering efforts to determine where she might have encountered the coronavirus that causes COVID-19.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has dispatched 10 officials to track down anyone who may have come in contact with the Solano County woman, whose source of infection remains a mystery. Health officials believe she could be the first case of community spread of the virus in the United States.


https://www.huffpost.com/entry/calif...b6beedb4ea48ae
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Chief Pagan 04:04 PM 02-28-2020
Originally Posted by DaFace:
Yeah, I didn't mean that literally. I only meant to illustrate that the difference between the stated death rates and reality is likely quite large.

Somewhere around 0.1% seems about in line with what I would expect, which is in line with death rates from the flu.
Ok. Fair enough.

But it is hard to talk about low probability but high consequence events without generating hysteria and then a backlash to the hysteria.

Coronavirus is new to humans. Nobody has any previous immunity. So the number of people who could contract it is way higher than the seasonal flu.

It is unlikely but still plausible that half the world’s population could contract it over the next year. Even a 0.1% fatality rate would be 4 million people.

That on top of the panic it would cause would be really serious.

Worst case scenarios should be calmly considered and contingency plans made as appropriate.
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DaFace 04:28 PM 02-28-2020
Originally Posted by Chief Pagan:
Ok. Fair enough.

But it is hard to talk about low probability but high consequence events without generating hysteria and then a backlash to the hysteria.

Coronavirus is new to humans. Nobody has any previous immunity. So the number of people who could contract it is way higher than the seasonal flu.

It is unlikely but still plausible that half the world’s population could contract it over the next year. Even a 0.1% fatality rate would be 4 million people.

That on top of the panic it would cause would be really serious.

Worst case scenarios should be calmly considered and contingency plans made as appropriate.
But that's the whole issue - it's a low probability event that is getting a HUGE amount of media attention and is now bordering on causing mass hysteria. There's a chance we'll get hit by a massive asteroid in the next year and all of humanity will be wiped out. Don't think I'll change my vacation plans just yet, though.
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Pitt Gorilla 04:29 PM 02-28-2020
Originally Posted by DaFace:
But that's the whole issue - it's a low probability event that is getting a HUGE amount of media attention and is now bordering on causing mass hysteria. There's a chance we'll get hit by a massive asteroid in the next year and all of humanity will be wiped out. Don't think I'll change my vacation plans just yet, though.
Same probability?
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DaFace 04:31 PM 02-28-2020
Originally Posted by Pitt Gorilla:
Same probability?
In the next year? Sure. I'd definitely wager that it's about as likely that we get hit by an asteroid in the next year as it is that half the world's population would be infected by Coronavirus. I mean, it's been active in China for two months now, and it's now up to a whopping 0.006% of their population.
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Pitt Gorilla 04:38 PM 02-28-2020
Originally Posted by DaFace:
In the next year? Sure. I'd definitely wager that it's about as likely that we get hit by an asteroid in the next year as it is that half the world's population would be infected by Coronavirus. I mean, it's been active in China for two months now, and it's now up to a whopping 0.006% of their population.
Where are you getting “half the world’s population”? I guess I haven’t been following.
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DaFace 04:38 PM 02-28-2020
Originally Posted by Pitt Gorilla:
Where are you getting “half the world’s population”? I guess I haven’t been following.
The post I was responding to.
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TLO 04:40 PM 02-28-2020
Wuhan has 11 million people living there.

11 million.

I wonder what the actual tally was of those infected? The sad part is we'll never know.
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TLO 04:41 PM 02-28-2020
Was the hype this bad with swine flu, SARS, etc?
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TLO 04:49 PM 02-28-2020
Also - why is this story getting no attention? Seems pretty significant unless I'm missing something.

https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/israe...avirus-vaccine
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Chiefs4TheWin 04:52 PM 02-28-2020
Originally Posted by TLO:
Also - why is this story getting no attention? Seems pretty significant unless I'm missing something.

https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/israe...avirus-vaccine
Because that's good news. Good news doesn't sell as well.
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DaFace 04:53 PM 02-28-2020
Originally Posted by TLO:
Also - why is this story getting no attention? Seems pretty significant unless I'm missing something.

https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/israe...avirus-vaccine
As I understand it, the issue isn't developing the vaccine (though I don't mean to imply that that's negligible). It's all the stuff that has to happen after that. It has to go through the trial phase to make sure it doesn't cause more harm than good, then they have to mass produce it and distribute it.

Most of the estimates I've seen have suggested early 2021 is a reasonable timeline for mass availability.
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Chief Pagan 05:09 PM 02-28-2020
Originally Posted by TLO:
Was the hype this bad with swine flu, SARS, etc?
There was plenty of hype, sure.

Swine flu had a low fatality rate.

SARS and MERS had a much higher fatality rate but they weren’t very infectious. So the world succeeded in isolating enough patients for the disease to fade out without going pandemic.

Corona virus looks infectious enough that it will most likely go pandemic.

The quarantines can slow it down but they won’t stamp it out. The real questions are probably:

How long before it is in general circulation like the current flu strains?

What is the fatality rate for the general population?
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Chief Pagan 05:34 PM 02-28-2020
Originally Posted by DaFace:
In the next year? Sure. I'd definitely wager that it's about as likely that we get hit by an asteroid in the next year as it is that half the world's population would be infected by Coronavirus. I mean, it's been active in China for two months now, and it's now up to a whopping 0.006% of their population.
Most of the virus experts think that China has only reported a fraction actual cases. Which is good and bad news. Bad because it means it is more easily spread. Good that the actual death rate is much lower.

China has also taken draconian quarantine measures that are not going to be replicated everywhere. Now that there are hundreds of cases in Iran, and they are not taking serious measures, we will likely learn a lot fairly shortly.

I’m not in the sky is falling camp. But this is much more serious than the chance of a large asteroid strike. I would say it is more like the risk of Miami getting a direct hit from a hurricane this year or LA having the Big earthquake.
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