Originally Posted by Bwana:
Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.
Originally Posted by Dartgod:
People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.
We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.
Thanks!
Click here for the original OP:
Spoiler!
Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.
California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.
“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”
Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.
The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.
The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.
A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.
Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.
“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”
It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.
“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”
On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.
“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”
According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.
More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.
“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”
CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.
Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.
“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”
Originally Posted by BWillie:
Remember back in the middle of April I told you guys that we would have more than 100,000 deaths and it wouldn't even be close. And that I ever expected 100k before June 1st. Some of you said I was an idiot and disputed the math. I was advising everyone the models predicting 50k or 60k deaths only total was grossly incorrect.
Well, it's May 26th and here we are, 100K+ deaths in USA now.
Yes I remember. Though I am guessing we have long passed 100k in deaths and when all is said and done the CDC will do their after action report and the death toll will be much higher unfortunately. [Reply]
Originally Posted by jdubya:
Just hung up with a buddy in France. France has been 2-3 days ahead of us from the beginning regarding the shutdown processes. When they reduced crowds, we followed in 2 days. When they closed restaurants we did the same 2 days later, etc etc......They opened everything back up May 9 apparently with some restrictions. Everybody is back to work but no longer shaking hands or doing the cheek kiss. Trains and public transportation is up and running but folks sit in every other seat so 50% of normal. People are going to eachothers houses for dinners again but eating outside when possible. I guess we are no longer following their pattern.
The problem we have is just so many of our population have no concept of limits or being rational.
If people wouldn't go pile into a pool, or jam pack a store the minute stuff opens we'd be more likely to be on a good track to getting back to normal. We just have way to many people that don't give a rats ass about anything. [Reply]
Originally Posted by dirk digler:
Yes I remember. Though I am guessing we have long passed 100k in deaths and when all is said and done the CDC will do their after action report and the death toll will be much higher unfortunately.
That whole 240k as an acceptable number doesn't look all that far fetched anymore. [Reply]
Originally Posted by jdubya:
Is there an answer to my question in there somewhere?
On another note, my buddys 91 year old father who has COPD just returned from the hospital after being admitted for 4 days due to being positive for C19 and is now home recovering.
Was limiting the number of deaths to 100,000 and counting worth the mitigation efforts? I'd say yes, considering the same models which have been right showed over a million dead without them.
Originally Posted by notorious:
7600 people die in the US each day during a normal time frame/normal year.
1,430/day died due to CovAIDS over a 70 day span.
If it is possible to find out the total deaths during that span we can see what has really happened.
You can at the state level and the increase in baseline mortality shows that cases have been significantly undercounted, not overcounted, and it's been clear for several weeks now. [Reply]
Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins:
You can at the state level and the increase in baseline mortality shows that cases have been significantly undercounted, not overcounted, and it's been clear for several weeks now.
Just my morbid curiosity, it's probably not worth wasted time researching it. :-) [Reply]
Originally Posted by Donger:
Was limiting the number of deaths to 100,000 and counting worth the mitigation efforts? I'd say yes, considering the same models which have been right showed over a million dead without them.
You?
Undetermined because we dont understand the extent of the damage as of yet. Do you think mitigation could have been effective without shutting everything down? [Reply]
Originally Posted by jdubya:
Undetermined because we dont understand the extent of the damage as of yet. Do you think mitigation could have been effective without shutting everything down?
We gave it our best shot, and we shouldn't look back and regret doing things wrong.
We need to look back and see how we can improve in the future.
I'm sick and tired of everyone being at each others' throats. Nobody knows what was really going on, but man they'll get pissed if you don't agree with their approach. [Reply]
Originally Posted by notorious:
We gave it our best shot, and we shouldn't look back and regret doing things wrong.
We need to look back and see how we can improve in the future.
I'm sick and tired of everyone being at each others' throats. Nobody knows what was really going on, but man they'll get pissed if you don't agree with their approach.
I agree and that was the reason I asked several posts ago that basically knowing what we know now, could we have practiced mitigation while keeping nearly all businesses open? I agree we need to look closely at what we did correctly and what we could have done better. Some things just stopped making sense to me. This weekend (California) public parks were open as long as families practiced safe distancing from other families but 20 minutes west although you can walk on the beach, you cant sit down on the sand and have a sandwich. [Reply]
Originally Posted by BWillie:
Remember back in the middle of April I told you guys that we would have more than 100,000 deaths and it wouldn't even be close. And that I ever expected 100k before June 1st. Some of you said I was an idiot and disputed the math. I was advising everyone the models predicting 50k or 60k deaths only total was grossly incorrect.
Well, it's May 26th and here we are, 100K+ deaths in USA now.
Who knew dip shit governors were sending infected patients into nursing homes? [Reply]
Originally Posted by jdubya:
I agree and that was the reason I asked several posts ago that basically knowing what we know now, could we have practiced mitigation while keeping nearly all businesses open? I agree we need to look closely at what we did correctly and what we could have done better. Some things just stopped making sense to me. This weekend (California) public parks were open as long as families practiced safe distancing from other families but 20 minutes west although you can walk on the beach, you cant sit down on the sand and have a sandwich.
There is no doubt leaders in some areas took things way too far.
Some of the rules in Michigan were flat-out insane. They didn't help with stopping the spread, they only assisted in pissing off people and nudging them to rebel. [Reply]
